Quarterback Line Movement: Mixed Market for Joe Burrow
NFL futures markets are always influx, and they provide insight into how bookmakers adjust their expectations for the upcoming season based on news, developments and betting action.
Here’s a look at notable line movement in the 2022 Most Passing Yards markets from FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook from their odds close to opening on May 13 to their current offerings.
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FanDuel Quarterback Line Movement
| Quarterback | May 13 | Aug. 19 |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | +800 | +650 |
| Joe Burrow | +1200 | +900 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1600 | +2500 |
| Russell Wilson | +1600 | +2500 |
Justin Herbert, San Diego Chargers
The third-year signal caller was among the original betting favorites at the book, and now he’s alone at the top of the list with the shortest odds. There’s a compelling case for Herbert leading the NFL in passing yards, too.
Los Angeles boasts one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, and running back Austin Ekeler is a proven receiving threat out of the backfield.
It’s worth highlighting that FanDuel bettors could consider Herbert’s current +900 odds to win the regular season MVP Award, which presents more value. After all, if he leads the league in passing yards, it could be a deciding factor in him also winning MVP.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
The climb in Rodgers’ odds definitely goes hand in hand with the current training camp narrative that the Green Bay wide receiver corps has frustrated the back-to-back MVP winner.
Additionally, with Green Bay featuring one of the better running back tandems in the league and a strong defense, Rodgers might not be asked to air it out as frequently this season.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Another team with a dynamic one-two punch out of the backfield, the Denver offense projects to take a huge step forward with Wilson behind center.
However, even with the promising outlook, the nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback has never finished among the top-five in passing yards in a season.
DraftKings Quarterback Line Movement
| Quarterback | May 13 | Aug. 19 |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | +900 | +1200 |
| Matt Ryan | +2000 | +2500 |
| Kyler Murray | +2000 | +2800 |
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
The drum of positivity has been beating all offseason for Ryan and the Colts' offense, and the 14-year veteran ranks second in the NFL in passing yards over the past five seasons.
Still, running back Jonathan Taylor is the consensus favorite to lead the league in rushing yards, and the Colts also project to be solid on the other side of the ball. It adds up to Ryan likely being asked to be more of a game manager than he ever was with the Atlanta Falcons.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is suspended the first six games of the season, and first-year Cardinals WR Marquise Brown has missed time during the offseason and training camp with a hamstring injury.
As a result, there should be no surprise Murray’s odds have climbed, and they probably aren’t even long enough to present value at the current number.
The Curious Case of Joe Burrow
Burrow finished the 2021 campaign with 4,611 passing yards (sixth-most in the league) while pacing the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9). The Bengals upgraded their offensive line to better protect their franchise quarterback, so Burrow ranking among the favorites to lead the NFL in passing yards this season is warranted.
Is it a coincidence that his opening and current odds have flipped at DraftKings and FanDuel?
Without knowing the betting trends and liability Burrow carries at each book, it’s hard to know the exact motivation behind the line movements. With that in mind, it appears DraftKings is looking to take more action on Burrow in the market, whereas FanDuel is trying to limit additional exposure.
Make sure to keep an eye on our Live Odds page throughout the week to get the best lines possible and connect with others in the SBR community on our popular sports betting forum.
