Kalshi and Polymarket Users Aim to Predict the Next Pope
As the College of Cardinals gathers at the Vatican to select the next Bishop of Rome in the papal conclave, bettors on prediction market sites are also busy trying to predict the next Pope’s identity.
According to news reports, around $12 million of contracts have been traded on cryptocurrency-based platform Polymarket and another $4 million on rival site Kalshi since Pope Francis's death on April 21.
While debates are held on the legality of bets on the outcome of the conclave and other non-sporting live events, these markets, including the new pope betting odds, have become increasingly popular in the US and beyond. The new pope predictions even have a market for his papal name.
The papal conclave
The papal conclave is a secretive process for choosing a new pope that takes place entirely behind closed doors in the famous 15th-century Sistine Chapel. The successful conclusion of the vote is announced by the release of white smoke from the Chapel chimney.
Correctly predicting the next pope may be more challenging to bettors than predicting other events, such as elections at our best sports betting sites. There are no opinion polls, debates, or campaigning.
Historically, that hasn’t stopped people from trying. In the 16th century, there were thriving markets for those who wanted to bet on the identity of the new pope, and although these were banned by a papal bull of 1591, each new conclave has produced widespread speculation, particularly in Italy.
The leading contender
The current leading contender is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the secretary of state at the Vatican. According to Polymarket, his chance of winning is around 23%, with Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, dubbed the Asian Francis, being the second most likely, at 19%.
Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana also attracted some support last week, as his chances rose from 7% to 17%, making him the main challenger to the front-runners. While the search for the next pope shows a close race for bettors, these percentages may not be as reliable a guide as the odds in other markets at our best sportsbooks.
“Current betting odds, favoring cardinals like Parolin and Tagle, probably reflect general perceptions, media attention, and public profile rather than special insider knowledge or highly accurate predictive insight,” said Leighton Vaughan Williams, Professor of Economics at the Nottingham Business School in the UK.
A surprise outcome in previous times
Following Pope John Paul II's death on April 2, 2005, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger was the favorite in the betting markets, and he eventually became Pope Benedict XVI. The last conclave, however, produced a surprise outcome when Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, considered to have less than a 4% chance of winning, was chosen by the cardinals and became Pope Francis.
