Nicolas Almagro - Olivier Rochus

[zizoudane10]

Hey guys!
I am looking at the matches right now, trying to find interesting spots and value plays.
Have some plays locked in, single matches as well as some easy parlays.

Now I saw the lines for this match.
All bookies are favoring Almagro really heavy.
Pinny has Rochus @4.66
Bet365 @4.33
Unibet even offers @5.15

Do not misunderstand me: I do think, that Almagro is a good player, he has a great year so far, close to getting into the top 10.
BUT: He definitely is NOT a player who is great on grass. It is just not his surface. Yes, he serves well. But he doesn't move to the net, he stays close to the line (where he plays really well), is not a player with a good slice.
Rochus on the other hand, loves to play on grass. He is a small player, very fast, very agile, good serve as well and he has a real nice passing shot.

If you just go by talent and form, there is no question that you'd prefer Almagro here.
But the surface really isn't made for hin, but for Rochus.

I see this one as a 50:50 match and when Unibet offers me @5.15, I think I have to make a small play here, for pure value reasons.
The over might be a good choice here, too. Look what you're book offers you.

So guys, let me hear your thoughts about this one please! I would love to get some more input.

[ttwarrior1]

i have almagro all the way to the semis

[Phillth]

yup. Im on the +6. Almagro only wins a third of hios grass matches.

[zizoudane10]

i have almagro all the way to the semis

To the semis?? No way man. Not in Wimbledon. Not on grass. Not against this heavy competition. Without any disrespect, but this is not going to happen. If we see Almagro in the semis, I will be the first one back here who is going to admit that I was wrong. But I guess it would be more likely to see an igloo in hell, than Almagro in the round of the best 4 in Wimbledon this year.

[zizoudane10]

yup. Im on the +6. Almagro only wins a third of hios grass matches.

+6.5 has to be around @1.7 more or less, would be worth thinking about. Def. the "safer" bet here, but I really kind of like the price for the ml in a game I would consider 50:50 ON THIS surface.

[JNic]

Not a 50/50 at all, remember he had 25 aces in his win over Isner last yr in 2nd round... think of how many aces he will have against Rochus. Not to mention Rochus is 9-17 this year, with that one run early in aussie tourney... Plus Almagro simply has had a great year. People always doubt Almagro on hardcourts/grass and I'm not trying to defend him but he will be holding serve way way easier than Rochus will

[Blax0r]

Hey guys!
I am looking at the matches right now, trying to find interesting spots and value plays.
Have some plays locked in, single matches as well as some easy parlays.

Now I saw the lines for this match.
All bookies are favoring Almagro really heavy.
Pinny has Rochus @4.66
Bet365 @4.33
Unibet even offers @5.15

Do not misunderstand me: I do think, that Almagro is a good player, he has a great year so far, close to getting into the top 10.
BUT: He definitely is NOT a player who is great on grass. It is just not his surface. Yes, he serves well. But he doesn't move to the net, he stays close to the line (where he plays really well), is not a player with a good slice.
Rochus on the other hand, loves to play on grass. He is a small player, very fast, very agile, good serve as well and he has a real nice passing shot.

If you just go by talent and form, there is no question that you'd prefer Almagro here.
But the surface really isn't made for hin, but for Rochus.

I see this one as a 50:50 match and when Unibet offers me @5.15, I think I have to make a small play here, for pure value reasons.
The over might be a good choice here, too. Look what you're book offers you.

So guys, let me hear your thoughts about this one please! I would love to get some more input.

I was actually looking hard at this match too. From what I can tell though, Rochus's grass success mostly came from one grass tourney: ATP Newport.

I'd be very interested to find out whether there's a legitimate difference in the grass used in the US from the European grass.

My guess, however, is that the prize money at ATP Newport is so little that people just don't care, except those defending their ranking points (ie, Rochus).

[zizoudane10]

Thx for your input JNic, it's well appreciated! Nice stats there. Almagro has a great year. He really made the next step as it seems. Rochus is/was in terrible form this year. But the recent matches were all on clay, which is by far the best surface for Almagro and by far the worst for Rochus. As I said: if it was strictly based on talent and recent form, it would be a complete no-brainer here. Almagro is 6/10 on grass overall and Rochus is 41/33. Your right with the serve. Almagro normally should get more direct points with his serve. I agree with that. But I like the fact, that Rochus is such a small player and so quick on his feet. Ball bounces low on grass, should be better for him, than for Almagro.
I might agree, that it is not exactly 50:50 here. But @5.15, all over 20% would be value here.

[zizoudane10]

I was actually looking hard at this match too. From what I can tell though, Rochus's grass success mostly came from one grass tourney: ATP Newport.

I'd be very interested to find out whether there's a legitimate difference in the grass used in the US from the European grass.

My guess, however, is that the prize money at ATP Newport is so little that people just don't care, except those defending their ranking points (ie, Rochus).

Yeah, he seems to love Newport.
I don't think it's just because of the money. Newport 500.000$, Halle for example, where you have all the top players 980.000. But yes, in Newport there are always very few top players, mainly because it is the only ATP tourney that is AFTER Wimbledon, so the players don't use it for practice. It's also the only tourney on grass outside of Europe.

But Rochus really is a very nice grass player, I remember 2010 (yeah, I know... 2 years ago...) when he lost to Djokovic in the first round 4-6, 6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2.

[PharaohUB]

Rochus takes the 1st set.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Rochus about to take the 2nd set as well. Great call here, Almagro looks done.

[mdfizzle]

Stream to watch?

[PharaohUB]

I don't think there is video for court 19. I've been looking.

[JNic]

no crt 19 has no stream

Great pick if this hits, I'm not on this, I just like Almagro but I'm really surprised Rochus is up 2-0. 1st set stats: 16 aces and Rochus wins 7 points on Almagro's serve and still takes the 1st set

2:0 is a long way, and matches got like another hour til darkness I think? I just don't see another Rochus break after this 2nd set but Almagro hasn't done any damage at all on Rochus serve. Still a long way is all I'm saying

[MagicDiceFlow]

If Almagro wins this 3rd set, the suspended play will highly favor him. He'll regroup, come back and tie up the match tomorrow. Rochus needs to finish him off today.

[PharaohUB]

Hope he takes the 3rd set to cap off my bet. But at least if it gets suspended til tomorrow maybe they'll move it to a court that I can watch!

[MagicDiceFlow]

I have a nice 6 teamer waiting with all won except for Almagro as the last leg, hopefully Nicky boy here can pull off the comeback.

Ticket #	Accepted	Type	Risk	To Win	Short Description
	6/24/2012 9:09PM	Parlay	108.00	1,125.31	Other Sports - 4003 R. Harrison -155 for Game/WIN Other Sports - 4008 R. Stepanek -255 for Game/WIN Other Sports - 4010 V. Troicki -155 for Game/WIN Other Sports - 4016 J. Monaco -205 for Game/WIN Other Sports - 4017 N. Almagro -450 for Game/PENDING Other Sports - 4064 J. Tipsarevic -150 for Game/WIN

[zizoudane10]

It's not over yet, he may still lose this one, but I guess it is/was the right call no matter what happens. There was a lot of value in this one.

[mdfizzle]

Have you looked into tomorrow value plays?

[zizoudane10]

Have you looked into tomorrow value plays?

Didn't have time until now, but I will do pal.

[MagicDiceFlow]

You made a good call Zizou regardless of what happens. I knew this little termite Rochus was tough on grass but I dont think anyone could have guessed he would give Almagro this many problems.

[motabl50]

suspended?

[JNic]

suspended?

Yea darkness, when schedule is updated they will say when it is resumed on here http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/score...ule/index.html

[JNic]

I have a nice 6 teamer waiting with all won except for Almagro as the last leg, hopefully Nicky boy here can pull off the comeback.

Ticket #	Accepted	Type	Risk	To Win	Short Description
	6/24/2012 9:09PM	Parlay	108.00	1,125.31	Other Sports - 4003 R. Harrison -155 for Game/WIN Other Sports - 4008 R. Stepanek -255 for Game/WIN Other Sports - 4010 V. Troicki -155 for Game/WIN Other Sports - 4016 J. Monaco -205 for Game/WIN Other Sports - 4017 N. Almagro -450 for Game/PENDING Other Sports - 4064 J. Tipsarevic -150 for Game/WIN

Lol it's incredible you hit these so often... either way if Nico wins/loses, amazing parlay

[zizoudane10]

Yep, darkness brought a stop to this game. 2:2 in the 5th. Will be really hard to win this now, but it is still absolutely possible.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Lol it's incredible you hit these so often... either way if Nico wins/loses, amazing parlay

Thanks man, it was a last second play, picked everything on instinct.

If Heritage posts a line on this tomorrow, i'll definitely be hedging to guarantee a profit. Although highly doubtful, I'll check their lines later this evening.

[zizoudane10]

Unlucky in the end, but I guess it was absolutely the right call here. Def. a ton of value. Sorry guys, hoped we would win it, maybe the next one.