Zach's Tennis 2012

[Zacharrr]

Hey guys I just wanted to start a thread here to share my picks and get some input. This all risking 1u and to win 1u respectively.

1u Paszek +437

I think this is great value, she is in good shape. I have this at +330

2u Petrova -190 (got this yesterday already)

She should roll i have it at -230

2u Melzer +212

I have this at +180 and really like melzer here.

1u R.Haase +796
1u Stakhovsky +197
1u Kukushkin +235
1u Rosol +111
1u Simon -201
1u Nalbandian +120
1u. Kavcic +476 (might add 1u)

[Zacharrr]

G. Muller +108 2u
He shouldnt be plus money vs bennetau (have this at -123) who is not really good on grass. I like Muller here he is decent on grass and probably gonna put 1u on the over once line is out

[beefcake]

Hasse is in such poor form.Remember Kavic retired last week from sore knees, might be recovered however. Good luck with the plays though!!

[Zacharrr]

Word is kavcic is fine...

Adding another unit to melzer +201

[Zacharrr]

Kerber -670 1u

[Zacharrr]

Malisse -266 2u
not the greatest price but still value

[Zacharrr]

1u Paszek +437 W
2u Petrova -190 W
1u Stakhovsky +197 L
1u Nalbandian +120 L
1u. Kavcic +476 L
G. Muller +108 2u L
Kerber -670 1u W
1u Simon -201 W

Record: 4-4 +3,37u

Pending
2u Melzer +212
1u Melzer 201
1u R.Haase +796
1u Kukushkin +235
1u Rosol +111

new:
Querrey -315 1u
Vasselin -240 1u

[Zacharrr]

Stepanek -219 2u
Petzschner +122 2u
J. Janowicz +190 1u

[Zacharrr]

Nice win on Melzer. Was scared after he lost first 6 points in a drow after the match resumed but in the end he was clearly the better player.
Unfortunately Petzschner couldnt close, he had plenty of chances and Im probably gonna be betting against Mayer in the next round, but we will see.

[Zacharrr]

Melzer -205 2u (vs Lacko)
After beating Wawrinka today i think Melzer is ready to make a run here. He is in good shape even though he lost to Ito in s'Hertogenbosch. Ito just matches up vs Melzer really well and i think Melzer will cruise here. I think this line will go to about -240

1u Malisse +114
He is superior player on grass and if the line gets better im adding another unit

[Zacharrr]

1u Paszek +437 W
2u Petrova -190 W
1u Stakhovsky +197 L
1u Nalbandian +120 L
1u. Kavcic +476 L
G. Muller +108 2u L
Kerber -670 1u W
1u Simon -201 W

Record: 4-4 +3,37u

Pending
2u Melzer +212 W
1u Melzer 201 W
1u R.Haase +796 L
1u Kukushkin +235 L
1u Rosol +111 W

new:
Querrey -315 1u W
Vasselin -240 1u L

Petzschner +122 2u L
J. Janowicz +190 1u W

Record: 8-8 +4,21u

Pending: Stepanek, Malisse, Melzer

[AraiWa]

New bets for today?

[Zacharrr]

Cornet +277 1.5u
As much as I like Paszek, at this price you gotta play Cornet.

Kerber -250 2u
Good price, I think Kerber will make crush M

Keeping an eye on plenty of lines...

[MrGambler]

Im on Lacko. Melzer didnt have time to recover his marathon match against Wawrinka. But may best man win!

[AraiWa]

Im on Lacko. Melzer didnt have time to recover his marathon match against Wawrinka. But may best man win!

I'm on him as well in a parlay with Dimotrov-hoping that hits-it works out to +333.

[Zacharrr]

Im on Lacko. Melzer didnt have time to recover his marathon match against Wawrinka. But may best man win!

Melzer played 5 games yesterday. He should be fine. He also did 10 days conditioning without ball and racket. His body is in excellent shape.

[Zacharrr]

Troicki +188 0.5u
might add more if line gets better

[Zacharrr]

dimitrov -139 1u

[Zacharrr]

Record: 11-11 +2,36

pending: troicki +188 0.5u

[Zacharrr]

Nishikori +240 1.5u

[Zacharrr]

giorgi +295 1u

[Zacharrr]

troicki +195 1u (giorgi and troicki are both 5dimes reduced lines)
paszek -188 2u

[Zacharrr]

janowicz +197 2.5u

better line available now but when i booked it that was the line
This is mostly me fading mayer, he won vs a demoralized petzschner who should have beat him. I think Jano has this one.

[Zacharrr]

possibly great day ruined by jano

[Zacharrr]

Baker -155 1u
Baker -158 1u

[Zacharrr]

added 1u to paszek at -189
tried to get görges at +189 but was too slow

[Zacharrr]

Record: 15-13 +9,2u


Baker +156 2,5u

I think this line favors Kohlschreiber too hard which is why im playing this bigger. I expect this to drop to +130-140

Kerber +115 vs Clisters 1u
I think this is a pickem and I think Kerber is slightly better than Clisters

[Zacharrr]

lisicki +5,5 -110 1u

[Zacharrr]

I put in a couple more bets:
Lisicki +560 1.5u
Giorgi +626 0.5u
Y. Shvedova +365 1u
Y. Shvedova +355 0.5u
Ferrer +112 1u
paszek -160 1u
peng +126 0.5u

As it seems I was way off about Baker line...

[Zacharrr]

Azarenka to win wimbledon +610 0.5u

[Zacharrr]

kvitova +145 2.5u

This is great value. I dont see Williams winning

[Vaughany]

Azarenka to win wimbledon +610 0.5u

Like this

[Zacharrr]

Kerber -170 1u
decent price for the better player. lisicki wont be able to play at the same level she played against sharapova, and kerber is one of the best on grass.

paszek to win wimbledon +3500 0.1u

thats pretty good value if you ask me.

Record: 19-16 +18,25u

pending:
paszek to win wimbledon +3500 0.1u
Azarenka to win wimbledon +610 0.5u
kvitova +145 2.5u
Ferrer +112 1u
Baker +156 2.5u

[Zacharrr]

tsonga -122 1.5u

i usually dont livebet but cant pass this up.

[Zacharrr]

if youzhny goes up tp +700 ill prolly play him for 0.5u, at +800 ill add another 0.5u
My Baker pick was def. bad at this price and also played him too big. but you learn from mistakes.