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Stacocakes Australian Open Thread
Another year and another Aussie Open. It's been awhile since I made a tennis thread so I figured that this was as good of a time as any to get back into the groove. I was considering adding on to my previous Aussie Open thread which had 56 million posts in it from Fisch and Smitch saying things such as "hey" "good job" "Can't wait for the next one"........but I figured it would probably be best to start a brand new one. Feel free to point dump in this thread as well.It's all good.
To the tennis.........
I'll start off as always with the men's draw first and then I will post the women's draw tomorrow. It look's as though Federer has another easy draw so the outright odds of him are justified. He looks like the clear favorite at this point on paper. I've broken the draw down to four quarters as follows:
Nadal's quarter
I've made some good money taking Nadal outright's lately but I think that might stop here. The fact that Rafa was nursing an injury during his loss to Davydenko a week ago has me scared. Sure it might not be a serious injury but if Rafa has any type of injury at all, playing two weeks of best of five set tennis definately will not make things better. The outright odds for Rafa haven't moved that much so obviously the books don't feel that his injury is overly serious. Rafa doesn't have anyone that could challenge him up until the fourth round where he could face the winner of the Isner/Cilic match. Cilic is so inconsistant no one knows whether he will win a couple matches or lose the very first one.Anything is possible with him. With that being said, Rafa should have no problems beating either player if he is healthy. In the Quarter finals Rafa will face either Nalbandian or Youzhny. Nalbandian can do some damage to Rafa but Nalbandian's fitness always creeps up on him during these major's and a healthy Rafa should outlast Nalbandian if he had to. The semifinal match will be interesting with Nadal vs either Soderling or Murray. This is where it is all up in the air for me. Soderling and Murray are both capable of beating Rafa, especially if Nadal isn't 100%. With that in mind and Nadal's injury concerns floating around in the back of my mind, I just am not happy with the current outright price of +197 for Rafa. If it was a bit higher I might take a chance on it but I think there is more value as an outright by looking at the other quarter of this draw with Soderling and Murray.
Soderling/Murray/Tsonga quarter
Very interesting quarter of the draw. Juan Martin Del Potro is in this quarter but he is still not at 100% so I don't see him making it far. Only question is how many matches he can win. With that being said I still think the draw is wide open for Murray to coast to the quarter finals. Soderling's path to the quarter finals is not as easy though. He will have to face the winner of the Tsonga/Gulbis match, which could be interesting. I would have to side with Tsonga to win that match though and Soderlings career record vs Tsonga is 4-1 so Soderling should be able to get to the quarter finals where he will face Andy Murray. The career head to head is 3-2 Murray. This match is really a complete toss up for me. What makes Soderling more appealing here is the fact that his outright is +1823 while Murray's is +835. Definately better value to take Soderling since this quarter final match will be very close. If Soderling can get past Murray he may or may not have to play Rafa in the semi's. If Rafa's injury concerns come to a head and he is knocked out of the tournament by this point, it should be an easy step for Soderling to get to the finals of this tournament from there.
Federer's quarter
Roddick must wonder who he hurt in a previous life to always end up in Roger's draw. Seems like that is how it is for every major. What happens when they do meet? Roger always beats him down. Roger's path to the quarter finals is weak. He will have to face Malisse and Fish before facing either Monfils or Roddick in the quarter finals. Federer shouldn't have a problem beating either of these players to get to the semifinals. Federer's outright price movement has gone from about +210 before the draw came out to currently +176 on Pinnacle and this move was due solely to the draw. I was considering taking a flyer on Roddick when I saw his outrights on BetFair at +10,900 but was reminded once again that I haven't certified my Betfair account to be able to bet Australian sports so I was unable to take Roddick at that price. On Pinnacle Roddick's outright is currently +5982 so you can see how much of a difference there is in price between books. If you can find some outright odds of around +10,000 on Roddick he might be worth a shot but at the current Pinnacle odds of +5982, no way.
Djokovic's quarter
Djokovic's path to the Semi's isn't that difficult either. What you have to always remember though is Novak has problems in the heat...especially long matches in the heat. With that being said he doesn't have much opposition in his quarter of the draw. He will face either Almagro or Ljubicic in the fourth round and both player's are very beatable for Novak. In the Quarter's he will face the winner of the Davydenko/Berdych match. Novak has a winning record vs both Davy (3-2) and Berdych (4-1) in his career. If Djokovic get's to the semifinals though he will likely face Roger who is 13-6 career over Djokovic.
What have we learnt from this draw? This tournament is definately Federer's to win. He has the easiest path to the finals of all of the top seeds. I liked his pre-draw odds to win the tournament but his current odds of +176 are a bit to low for my liking. As an outright though I am going to take my chances with Robin Soderling at +1823. I may add one more outright before the tournament starts but this is my only mens outright as of right now.
Best of luck in these next two weeks guys. Hopefully we will all make some money.
Outright :
Robin Soderling +1823
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Originally Posted by MUHerd37
This guy doesn't look very happy, he's even Blue!!
