EP36's Tennis Elbow

**tevari** · 03-27-12, 01:06 PM

Li. Derp.

**Dmoneytx** · 03-27-12, 01:37 PM

Way to go D. Tipsy won that second set pretty easy. GL on Tsonga later, I know ya need him to come in for ya!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 01:40 PM

I have said it before, but I think it's truly time for me to just pick parlays. I know I hit a few dogs in Indian Wells and maybe one early in Miami, but it feels like they don't win [at least not the ones I am on]. Parlays or bust!

**Demonata** · 03-27-12, 01:41 PM

Thanks man. So what tennis bets you got going on today? Ya I need Tsonga to win this one. Only way to play these heavy chalk is in parlays.

**Demonata** · 03-27-12, 01:42 PM

Ya eaglesphan just do like 2-3 player parlays. Screw spreads and over unders, too unpredictable.

**shimeon40** · 03-27-12, 02:05 PM

Li...stupid monkey

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 02:20 PM

I've just had bad luck with dogs. Only way I'd probably hit one is to play all the ones I like on a given day and when hardly any hit, you lose any way. Yesterday, I skipped Monaco. Today, would have played Almagro - not that he's won at this point - along with Li, but decided to limit mysef again. Li was just f-ing terrible.

**Demonata** · 03-27-12, 02:33 PM

Now Djokovic already down a break.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 05:40 PM

LoL @ Roddick. Dude probably buried half of SBR and the world the last two days.

**Gndias** · 03-27-12, 05:45 PM

oh man i am laughing so hard.....gonna get my money back

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 05:55 PM

Those are some of the toughest spots to bet are when players come off "marquee" wins. You really never know how they will respond.

**shimeon40** · 03-27-12, 06:05 PM

Monaco was the upset match we were all searching for...demitrov..nah...mayer..nah...monac o..yes.

**Gndias** · 03-27-12, 06:34 PM

this might be retarded but am i the only one on wozniacki ?

**MUHerd37** · 03-27-12, 07:23 PM

Serena looks like total ass out there. Unforced error after unforced error after unforced error.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 07:44 PM

Yeah cannot believe she hasn't gotten into Wozniacki's serve and gotten at least one break either. Oh well, another shite day.

**Judgejoebrwn** · 03-27-12, 08:20 PM

And there goes both my parlays...

**Judgejoebrwn** · 03-27-12, 08:21 PM

Tennis has cost me easily 50% of my bankroll (which isn't much really) in these past two tournaments. Unbelieveable.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 08:25 PM

Its a lovely sport to bet. This is why I bet it usually smaller than the other sports I partake in. I stick with the same size bet every time. Helps make the defeats somewhat more bearable. Don't know what else the prices will offer from here on out, but I may just stick to my futures bets. Got Tsonga at +2800 and Murray at +500. Hoping at least one gets into a semi so I can trade out, think both could realistically be there.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 09:12 PM

See it's days like today that drive you crazy, you play several dogs for the last couple days and barely any hit and then today some big ones are cashing so tomorrow everyone is going to look to the dogs again .... such a crazy sport, I love it and I loathe it.

**Judgejoebrwn** · 03-27-12, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

See it's days like today that drive you crazy, you play several dogs for the last couple days and barely any hit and then today some big ones are cashing so tomorrow everyone is going to look to the dogs again .... such a crazy sport, I love it and I loathe it.

If you could find the rhythm, there'd be tons of money to be had. But yeah, when I first started betting on Tennis recently, there was so little money to be had with any one fave, so I parlayed 6-10 of the highest odds together to get a decent line. And they were winning flawlessly. Then the one dog messes it up and I think "Eh, just a fluke" and chase it. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Gotta learn from this.

-Judge

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 09:44 PM

Yeah people think you can just bang high chalk parlays all day long in tennis. They'll hit one, maybe two or three in a row and come out saying how easy it is and then like you say, upsets start and parlays fall apart. I learned quick to keep parlays to two selections for my personal taste - of course it also makes it harder to find a pairing that yields good odds without paying too much, but that's how I like to try it.

Somtimes the best place to find that sort of pairing is to go to the Challenger level and find the in-form guys or the guys who are slumming it who play some ATP level stuff and drop down to earn a quick buck. Sometimes you get better odds or match-ups down there, but you really have to pay attention to who is doing what on that level.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 09:52 PM

Who knows if anyone will win anything, but the quarters in Miami look great on the men's side.

Djokovic-Ferrer
Monaco-Fish [Okay maybe not this one, but who is ready to trust Mardy]
Tipsarevic-Murray
Tsonga-Nadal

Of course Djokovic has beat the living tar out of Ferrer on hard courts in the past year, so think about that before you jump in and start touting great value on Ferrer. Murray-Tipsarevic has upset potential. Tipsy has always played Muggy tough and the odds at around +315 are enticing. Tsonga-Nadal to me is the most intriguing. Tsonga's got a little confidence in beating Rafa twice last year on Grass and an indoor hard surface. Looks like they give Tsonga a puncher's chance at just over +200. I expect Monaco and Fish to be real competitive too. I mean honestly [gulp] three dogs look good to take, maybe one wins? Two if you're real lucky, but who knows.

**Judgejoebrwn** · 03-27-12, 10:55 PM

What's your position on hedging potential for these matchups? Saying, in theory, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and Fish (he did just knock out Almagro in relatively impressive fashion) are the likely winners, parlay them all or as pairs and hedge the 2 most likely underdogs?

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-27-12, 10:58 PM

Fish-Almagro was 3 sets.

I would say just pick the two you like best and parlay them. I'm not real confident that all the favorites are advancing. I think at least one of them loses, but of course the days I have thought that this week the faves wound up winning.

**shimeon40** · 03-28-12, 01:48 AM

I think your feeling is right eagle..one outsider atleast..Monaco perhaps..perhaps not..murray could rooster it up..thats a chance...tsonga maybe..he's done it before..no fear of nadal..ferrer nearly had djokovic in australia open..oh yeah one will lose 4 sure.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-28-12, 06:27 AM

Wednesday, March 28th

Barranquilla Chalenger Parlay: Alund + Zeballos [+100]

ATP Miami
Tipsarevic +300
Tsonga +200I really think Tipsarevic or Tsonga is going to get a win today. I favor Tsonga more than Tipsarevic to do this, but if one of them wins - you profit if you bet a flat rate on both. We'll see if it works out or not.

**shimeon40** · 03-28-12, 07:40 AM

Eagle..any great reason for alund?.. struvay is playing ome tournament..they've never meet and struvay has a formline through lorenzi...your thoughts?

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-28-12, 08:49 AM

Struvay has been out since February with a back strain. Alund has been playing well the last couple Challengers on clay this season. I think the "home country" angle is somewhat over rated for these lower level guys. There are some of them that definitely do play much better on home soil - but looking at Struvay's work in Colombia, I don't see that it amps him up consistently. I think the line would probably be even larger for Alund if it weren't in Colombia.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-28-12, 08:53 AM

Actually I take that back. Price does seem about fair - place where I put my bet in was lagging way behind the rest of the market.

**shimeon40** · 03-28-12, 08:56 AM

Thanks eagle..articulate explanation..thats what concerned me..always worries me when they come back from the states with their tail between legs..i think if he was playing in south america tournaments prior to this match maybe..but 2.3 too short against alund.I think your right now.

**samus82** · 03-28-12, 11:07 AM

I agree there is good value in the Tsonga play. Not convinced by Rafa's form or fitess at the moment, for me the match is really on Tsonga's racket. If he brings his A game I think he takes it. Tailing on this play for half a unit.

Tipsaveric in good form too, but expect Murray to be very motivated for this match. Over 21.5 games is my play for the match, but the Tipsarevic ML play is good value. Hope one on these cashes for you mate, good luck!

**Judgejoebrwn** · 03-28-12, 02:28 PM

Tailing on both these dogs. I won't be surprised if Murray wins, but the value is good and I can't shake his loss against Garcia-Lopez in straights. Also took a parlay with Joker and Monaco. Fish has been shaky for a while, Monaco demolished Roddick, and Monaco has beaten Fish both recent meetings. BOL!

-Judge

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-28-12, 03:09 PM

F-ing Struvay withdrew, so that parlay winds up being a straight play on Zeballos for about 0.25 unit profit if he wins. Tipsarevic takes the opener, broke Murray three times. We'll see how quickly it goes downhill from here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-28-12, 03:21 PM

Break & consolidate for Tipsarevic to start the 2nd. Don't blow this fukk stick.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-28-12, 03:30 PM

Blows an early break lead just like the 1st set. Doh!