Shari's tennis plays

**beefcake** · 05-09-11, 06:47 AM

Shari, stakhovsky is the only one I see today that has a bit of value...He played fairly well vs Ferrer and hanescu hopefully wont screw me like he seems to do sometimes..
Save those pennies and kill the french..!

**fenek** · 05-09-11, 06:56 AM

i like nishikori today. best of luck !

**UpsetSpecial09** · 05-09-11, 01:46 PM

Shari, that parlay lost early, tough loss on the tie break in the first set for Cuevo and that did us in there. Glad I only had it very small, took Starace which just came through and evens thinks out. Think some better plays out there for tomorrow.

Disappointed in myself for not going with my instinct and taking Fish

**shari91** · 05-09-11, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by UpsetSpecial09

Shari, that parlay lost early, tough loss on the tie break in the first set for Cuevo and that did us in there. Glad I only had it very small, took Starace which just came through and evens thinks out. Think some better plays out there for tomorrow. Disappointed in myself for not going with my instinct and taking Fish

I ignore my instinct all of the time. It's hard because on one hand you know you should go with numbers but on the other you feel a player will win. I missed out on 2 good women dogs today because I let numbers win but it's worked for me overall so I'll stick with it.

**sharlataans** · 05-09-11, 04:51 PM

Had a look at tomorrows card. I like Stakhovsky - he had a gutsy win today. Complained about everything, towels, watering, etc. But it looks he came to play.
I think Llodras +175 is a good value (at least for trading). Why is he such a dog here?

Also like Scheepers +5.5. Pavluchenkova looks like is on hamburger diet now and does not like to run at all.

**guil0000** · 05-09-11, 10:19 PM

Hi Shari,

Can I ask what book you use for your spreads. You get very nice prices on those even Pinnacle almost never beats them

**changkaikk** · 05-10-11, 04:29 AM

gl on your plays today

**Enkhbat** · 05-10-11, 04:58 AM

you guys are wishing shari good luck without knowing what her picks are?

**shari91** · 05-10-11, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by guil0000

Hi Shari, Can I ask what book you use for your spreads. You get very nice prices on those even Pinnacle almost never beats them

For the past few weeks I've been solely using Sportingbet Australia. For the French Open, it'll be a combo of them and Betfair. Maybe Matchbook as well.

Originally posted by Enkhbat

you guys are wishing shari good luck without knowing what her picks are?

They know my plays are always in my spreadsheet.

http://shari91.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

**sharlataans** · 05-10-11, 06:28 AM

Guys don't use Pinnacle for tennis betting. ML gets settled if one player retires after 1st set. So you lose all fixed matches. Today Anderson and Karlovic did that already.

**sharlataans** · 05-10-11, 06:32 AM

Shari, do did you have a look at Vinci vs. Errani. Why are so big discrepancies in odds between bookies? Betfair @3.3, 5dimes @1.87?

**shari91** · 05-10-11, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by sharlataans

Shari, do did you have a look at Vinci vs. Errani. Why are so big discrepancies in odds between bookies? Betfair @3.3, 5dimes @1.87?

Something screwy's going on with that match. Massive line move. They took it down hours ago here so I'm glad I stayed away. Errani started off a little over $2 and then dropped to about $1.50 so there's obviously something not right. Either Vinci is injured, people just think she's injured or the match is fixed.

**sharlataans** · 05-10-11, 06:44 AM

Two italians in italy. And women in addition

Expect unexpected

**sharlataans** · 05-10-11, 06:45 AM

wow @4.3 already!!!

**sharlataans** · 05-10-11, 07:27 AM

Vinci retired in 2nd set.

**timmyboy34243** · 05-10-11, 07:31 AM

sharlataans & shari,

wished i'd spotted your exchange easrlier, sharlataans was dead on in the '' what's up with this " mindset....... good call.....

**Enkhbat** · 05-10-11, 07:37 AM

What do you guys think of parlaying 2 or 3 really high seeded guys in the early rounds of the tourney.

For example I just parlayed Soderling, Berdych and Murray for 5 dollars to win 6.48

Do you think this is legitimate strategy?

**shari91** · 05-10-11, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by sharlataans

Vinci retired in 2nd set.

Apparently she injured her ankle a few days ago. Not even sure why she bothered to play but I guess the paycheck just for showing up was worth it to her. Kind of silly though - she could've made her injury much worse just for a few bucks.

Originally posted by timmyboy34243

sharlataans & shari, wished i'd spotted your exchange easrlier, sharlataans was dead on in the '' what's up with this " mindset....... good call.....

Line moves like that are always a big warning sign. I stay away for the most part but sometimes I get stuck when I make a bet before the line moves. And often the price drops a lot on one person and they still end up losing. Tricky stuff. But if you ever see something like that, feel free to come in here and mention it or start a thread. Often someone in the tennis forum can find some dirt as to what's going on.

**sharlataans** · 05-10-11, 07:41 AM

Too bad players who do these things, whatever - whether fixing matches or going to play with known injuries (the same), are not discouraged in any ways. Tourney makers should ban such players from playing to certain time. And if this repeats, ban for life.

We should make a sticky page of players who are known to do this kind of shit. I did a google search and this is not the first time Vinci is involved in shady matters.

To me it is comparable to doping usage

**shari91** · 05-10-11, 07:44 AM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

What do you guys think of parlaying 2 or 3 really high seeded guys in the early rounds of the tourney.

For example I just parlayed Soderling, Berdych and Murray for 5 dollars to win 6.48

Do you think this is legitimate strategy?

Well, it's obviously not a guarantee as very often high seeds get knocked out quite early in tourneys. I think it's a much better strategy in Slams than it is leading up to one. At least then you can be 95% certain that a player is willing to try as hard as they can to win the match, even if they're slightly injured.

But parlaying them is still much, much better than taking one of them outright.

**sharlataans** · 05-10-11, 07:45 AM

Shari what about Llodra? Why didn't you play him at least against the spread? Now he is @2.88

**shari91** · 05-10-11, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by sharlataans

Shari what about Llodra? Why didn't you play him at least against the spread? Now he is @2.88

Mainly because I don't like him.

I rarely bet matches involving him. I've just never liked him at all - not sure why.

This week I'm just trying to put a bit of money on matches involving players I'm interested in for the French Open. I may end up losing a bit this week but it's the only way to force myself to pay attention to what's going on. That's why I've dropped my unit size and will continue to do it now for the rest of the week unless I see something remarkable. Which I highly doubt.

**Bbr** · 05-10-11, 08:04 AM

Wawrinka to win 2-0 @ -115 2x

**camel** · 05-10-11, 08:09 AM

Thoughts on Kirilenko/Petkovic? Could go to 3 sets?

**shari91** · 05-10-11, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by Bbr

Wawrinka to win 2-0 @ -115 2x

Best of luck! I'm staying away from that doughnut muncher this week. Still pissed about his performance in the Dustin Brown match and he's lost 3 in a row - all as a short priced favourite. I personally can't trust him at all until he finally starts to bloody win.

Originally posted by camel

Thoughts on Kirilenko/Petkovic? Could go to 3 sets?

Hard to say. I actually had Kirilenko with the handicap in my betslip a few times but just couldn't take her. Petkovic's in decent form and Kirilenko can be dangerous at times but than at others she just flops. I honestly don't know what will happen in this one. I'm torn between Petko winning somewhat easily in 2 and Kirilenko winning in 3. Sorry

**and24** · 05-10-11, 08:41 AM

Hi shari91, what do you say for Lorenzi-Belluci match?

**Gaskan** · 05-10-11, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Well, it's obviously not a guarantee as very often high seeds get knocked out quite early in tourneys. I think it's a much better strategy in Slams than it is leading up to one. At least then you can be 95% certain that a player is willing to try as hard as they can to win the match, even if they're slightly injured.

But parlaying them is still much, much better than taking one of them outright.

I employ this strategy myself, but try not to couple any big favs (-500 and up) with lower plays. Keep all of your big favs together. Nothing worse than watching your slight favs or dogs come in only to bust your parlay, by Davydenko beating Nadal in an early round (which happened to a 9 player parlay of mine ealry this year).

It's all about avoiding the upsets.

**Bbr** · 05-10-11, 09:22 AM

Need wawrinka to close out this tie breaker

**ghn999** · 05-10-11, 09:58 AM

What do you think about the maria sharapova match today against Makarova, E? I am hoping Maria win.

**sharlataans** · 05-10-11, 09:59 AM

Look how Pavlucenkova is starting to choke. Hamburgers are going to show.

**ghn999** · 05-10-11, 10:09 AM

Pavlucenkova coming back. WHoop Whoop!

**MUHerd37** · 05-10-11, 11:27 AM

Why did I bet Bellucci? Guy is such a choke artist. Should have never taken him to beat Lorenzi playing in his own country.

**koscheckbaby** · 05-10-11, 12:05 PM

I was gonna take Niemenen today, but your spreadsheet had Stakhovsky so I'm sitting out. Match seems to close to call statistically and is playing out pretty close right now. I'm happy I sat out.

**sharlataans** · 05-11-11, 12:01 AM

Had a look at todays card:

Volandri @2.6 - home boy, quite solid. I want to fade Wawa. He struggled bad yesterday, many many errors.
Vesnina @3.2 - just because of odds
Kleybanova @1.87 - fading Peer

Let me know your thoughts

**Enkhbat** · 05-11-11, 01:04 AM

tough one yesterday shari, good luck today