Shari's tennis plays

**shari91** · 04-29-11, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by UpsetSpecial09

Match wasn't on tv here, did something happen with Troicki injury wise or does he just suck? How did he get smashed so badly todaY? Anyone see the match? His serve was broken right away and he never got a break the entire match

Apparently he injured his back. Would've been nice if he had retired instead of just finishing it off.

**Pew Pew** · 04-29-11, 01:53 AM

Hey Shari who do you like more? Errani or Barrois?

**Ruff** · 04-29-11, 02:35 AM

may the wagering gods be with us today. And I wanted to thank you Shari for all your hard work you dedicate to helping others like myself not only learn more about tennis wagering, but also getting a ton of info as a fan. The tennis season is a long one and there will be up days and down days(been wagering for 30 years give or take a few)Tennis can be one of the cruelest sports to lose some matches But.... its can be the most satisfying as well. Keep up the great work and I and really enjoy your thread and your leans.
WOOT!!!!! Time to CASH

**CanuckG** · 04-29-11, 02:37 AM

**sharlataans** · 04-29-11, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by Ruff

may the wagering gods be with us today. And I wanted to thank you Shari for all your hard work you dedicate to helping others like myself not only learn more about tennis wagering, but also getting a ton of info as a fan. The tennis season is a long one and there will be up days and down days(been wagering for 30 years give or take a few)Tennis can be one of the cruelest sports to lose some matches But.... its can be the most satisfying as well. Keep up the great work and I and really enjoy your thread and your leans.
WOOT!!!!! Time to CASH

second that

**UpsetSpecial09** · 04-29-11, 03:21 AM

Thinking of taking these 2 parlays & Straight wagers:
Kohlscriber/Tipsarevic

Mayer/Verdasco

Straight wagers

Petzchner

Simon

Cuevas

Thoughts on these Shari? Thanks as always for all your thoughts and hard work! This is such a great thread.

**UpsetSpecial09** · 04-29-11, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Apparently he injured his back. Would've been nice if he had retired instead of just finishing it off.

What a f'n SOB! If your hurt then retire from the match, how many times have we seen a top player retire, and this bastard couldn't just stop playing he had to embarrass himself with that horrible match and cost many of us $ that took him.

**shari91** · 04-29-11, 03:31 AM

I took Kohli and Tipsy for my TI picks but am a bit too wary to put money on.

You're braver than I for taking Verdasco and Mayer always worries me as a favourite but if they both play properly, they 'should' win.

Petz I like but not at that price.

I'm against you on Simon but just ignore that as I've taken Milos for a bit as part of a strategy.

Cuevas should win as well but Bellucci has screwed me twice this week so I'm not getting involved in that one.

Best of luck with your bets and thank you everyone for your kind words! I love the fun we have in this thread and that's the only reason I haven't stopped posting in it although the thought of people tailing my picks still makes me uncomfortable. I don't get bothered over bad days and I honestly don't worry about them. If I didn't have them, there wouldn't be many books that I could play at. I'm just trying to learn and make a bit of money, but most importantly, talk to fellow tennis fans about a sport I love.

**UpsetSpecial09** · 04-29-11, 03:46 AM

Shari thanks for your opinion. Haven't put anything in yet. I don't like the juice on Petz but tennis is one of those sports as we know that favs are always juiced. About to put in a small wager on Petz.

Pretty sure I am gonna take Kohlschriber/Tipsarevic as a parlay, the others I was just throwing out and haven't decided on yet. Do you have a few favorite picks today?

**koscheckbaby** · 04-29-11, 03:46 AM

I did a Granollers/Verdasco and Petzchner/JMDP parlay for today. I think Simon wins, but no way I'm betting against Raonic. Perhaps I'm overthinking, but I don't like that Stepanek is 3-1 career wise vs Kohl, so didn't bet Kohl as favorite, eventhough his form is much better.

Tailed on Lopez. Let's see how today plays out

**sharlataans** · 04-29-11, 03:57 AM

Cuevas -3 for me

**shari91** · 04-29-11, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by UpsetSpecial09

Shari thanks for your opinion. Haven't put anything in yet. I don't like the juice on Petz but tennis is one of those sports as we know that favs are always juiced. About to put in a small wager on Petz. Pretty sure I am gonna take Kohlschriber/Tipsarevic as a parlay, the others I was just throwing out and haven't decided on yet. Do you have a few favorite picks today?

No, there's really nothing I like too much. Maybe Errani just because she has been so strong this week but since I don't normally play this late in tournaments as it is, it's hard for me to find a favourite. I only made bets today because the prices on the dogs I took are off what I've calculated they should be. Once the wedding is over I may look again and see if there's anything else I like but I'm not holding my breath.

**Laker_crazy** · 04-29-11, 04:28 AM

Hey Shari,Hope you are doing good today? i was thinking of playing volandri at + 200 against granollers....i think the price is way too high IMO,what do you say?

**koscheckbaby** · 04-29-11, 04:31 AM

Originally posted by Laker_crazy

Hey Shari,Hope you are doing good today? i was thinking of playing volandri at + 200 against granollers....i think the price is way too high IMO,what do you say?

That price is reflecting how bad he played yesterday. When Granollers played Troicki, the announcer was just assuming he'd get past Volandri. Haha

**Laker_crazy** · 04-29-11, 04:34 AM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

That price is reflecting how bad he played yesterday. When Granollers played Troicki, the announcer was just assuming he'd get past Volandri. Haha

Volandri has been good on the dirt this season having won 8 out of the 10 he has played,whereas granollers has won 4 out of the 6 that he has played,if volandri can bring his game on court i think he has a decent shot at taking on granollers

**shari91** · 04-29-11, 04:35 AM

Originally posted by Laker_crazy

Hey Shari,Hope you are doing good today? i was thinking of playing volandri at + 200 against granollers....i think the price is way too high IMO,what do you say?

Price is good but he's such a dodgy shit that it's hard for me to back him. I didn't watch the Granollers match so I have no clue if he looked any good. Hard to say for me. Sorry

**Laker_crazy** · 04-29-11, 04:37 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Price is good but he's such a dodgy shit that it's hard for me to back him. I didn't watch the Granollers match so I have no clue if he looked any good. Hard to say for me. Sorry

That is the only thing that holds me back,he sure is dodgy but at the same time he is quite capable of playing some good tennis and upstaging anyone on a given day,i ll probably pass on this even though i don't like granollers not at this price.

**Tommy_de1st** · 04-29-11, 05:32 AM

Shari, I have joined you and watched Royal wedding

**goblinburner** · 04-29-11, 06:04 AM

Medina Garrigues, A To Win 2-1 +275 is that a good value

**samitarian** · 04-29-11, 06:42 AM

feliciano lopez is not a aggressive hitter is he

**koscheckbaby** · 04-29-11, 07:48 AM

This performance by Volandri today is offensive. He looks awesome today after being a complete POS yesterday. Guess I'm taking a loss for today.

**shari91** · 04-29-11, 08:10 AM

Last minute add of

Kohlschreiber/Verdasco -104 0.5x

**changkaikk** · 04-29-11, 08:12 AM

Thank yyou for ADD. Good luck

**sharlataans** · 04-29-11, 08:15 AM

Thanks Shari. Can you explain why Soderling is such an underdog? From record it looks like Del Potro has his number. But why

**shari91** · 04-29-11, 08:28 AM

Well, here's how I look at H2H's. Not saying this is the right way, but it works for me.

1. Look at if they've played on the surface. These two haven't.

2. Look at the most recent match. Were there any factors involved? delPo beat Soderling but Soderling was injured.

3. Completely disregard everything over a year old. Everything not on the surface. Everything with no extraneous factors involved. That leaves me ignoring the H2H completely. People mature. Form changes. Surface ability changes. Injuries heal, injuries worsen. Mental state strengthens or weakens.

So for these 2, the H2H means nothing to me. I gave it a quick glance, went through my little mental notebook about the match and then tossed it out completely.

But for books, it does mean something in smaller tournaments because linesmakers are lazy. They know Sod is coming off an injury and delPo leads the H2H 4-1. But what the books don't seem to take into consideration is that until about 10 months ago, Soderling was a head case. Plenty of talent but didn't have the mental strength to carry him through big matches.

If I had set this line, I would've put it close to even purely because of the uncertainty around Sod's recovery. Without any injury concerns, I would've made him the favourite.

Since I can get plus money on a line that I calculated as being even or even favouring Sod, I have to take the person with plus odds who also happens to have a Grand Slam final on this surface under his belt. He may lose but this is how I make decisions about my bets every day and it works out ok in the long run

**sharlataans** · 04-29-11, 08:34 AM

Thanks for explanation. Weird that you think the linesmakeres are lazy. I never ever thought that might be the case

**Laker_crazy** · 04-29-11, 08:35 AM

Shari bad luck for me,wanted to play volandri at that price we talked about,stayed off and instead played the total games to go over and guess what granollers decided not to show up at all

**koscheckbaby** · 04-29-11, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by Laker_crazy

Shari bad luck for me,wanted to play volandri at that price we talked about,stayed off and instead played the total games to go over and guess what granollers decided not to show up at all

It wasn't Granollers fault. That stupid dick, Volandri, played out of his freaking mind. Yesterday, he had like 15 winners in the total match and over 60 errors. Today, he had 15 winners just in the first set. And he wasn't making any errors at all. The one handed backhand was landing.

Hell, match point summed up this match. He even defended the shot that just missed and would have hit a miraculous winner had the ball been in anyways. He had a horseshoe up his ass.

**Cross** · 04-29-11, 09:42 AM

check that Shari, Soderling has a grand slam final on this surface, Federer took him down in that French final. I followed that same reasoning picking Soderling this morning. Great analysis!

**shari91** · 04-29-11, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by Cross

check that Shari, Soderling has a grand slam final on this surface, Federer took him down in that French final. I followed that same reasoning picking Soderling this morning. Great analysis!

Thanks for reminding me that I left out the word final! That's what happens when I'm rushing and watching highlights of the royal wedding at the same time

But yeah, this line was screwy. Even if Sod doesn't win, I'm happy with the bet and I'd make it again under the same circumstances. Just from BPs alone - Sod's faced 2, saving 1, delPo's faced 6 saving 5. He relies on his serve a lot of the time but if someone can handle it, he runs into a few problems. The fact that it's rain delayed now doesn't make me too happy as Sod had all of the momentum but if he is still nursing his injury, it'll at least give him a chance to rest.

**shari91** · 04-29-11, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by Laker_crazy

Shari bad luck for me,wanted to play volandri at that price we talked about,stayed off and instead played the total games to go over and guess what granollers decided not to show up at all

Man that sucks. I do that all of the time. From koscheck's posts, Volandri was a machine out there. It'd be nice if he'd give us a clue before matches if he's going to be legit or not in the future.

**Spanks** · 04-29-11, 10:14 AM

wow...kohli looks like pure dogshit...

**Cross** · 04-29-11, 10:19 AM

how do you get bageled in front of your home crowd... embarassing!

**shari91** · 04-29-11, 10:23 AM

Did you see some of the shots he missed ie the one on match point? I don't know him to be a fixer so I don't think anything dodgy was going on here. He just simply didn't turn up. I can't even say Step played that well. Kohli just played that badly that it's hard for me to tell how Step played.

**Cross** · 04-29-11, 10:38 AM

Didn't seem like a good play earlier, but wish I added Stepanek to my underdog card! So hard to predict this stuff, I'm glad I wasn't watching that live feed, hard to watch brutal tennis matches like that one. Now let's stop this rain in Portugal so these guys can finish.