kleybanova looks back on track, I think if she takes this set she will win .
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I only play them for less units as far as my thread is concerned, and that's usually only at the very beginning and very end of tournaments. In actuality, I play them just the same or in the case of someone like Scheepers today, for quite a bit more. But I don't like posting units and being responsible for other people's money so I'm just posting things safely in here. Even if someone had just played like I posted they would be up $4k in less than a month based on $100 units so I'm comfortable with that.Originally posted by reformed
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Both my books still have it up so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.Originally posted by BetaB
She's still worrying me. Her form is really off balance and she's being caught out of position too many times. Even if this goes to 3, I'll still be worried about it but it'll give anyone the chance to jump off at a better price I guess.Originally posted by reformed
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Klybanova loss 3 points and win 4 game in a row to win 6-4Comment -
WTA never seems to disappoint me
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I have no faith in either of these girls right now. I honestly have no clue what's going to happen from here.
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I'm starting to think the Russian Mob laid a ton of cash on Kley when she was down 4-2. Watching this, something really seems off. Some of these errors Pavly is making are just not normal for her and Kley still looks like she's ready to crack. Seriously unreal.Comment -
Kleybanova must be doing something ok now. Pavly is out to over +200 on betfair..Comment -
ahhhh the russians. betfair had her at +1100Comment -
Kleybanova is 6/6 on her 2nd serve thus far in the 3rd set. 8 of 20 in the 1st set and 6 of 13 in the 2nd set.Originally posted by shari91
Small sample, but yes it's definitely odd.Comment -
oh boy 8 games in a row. Glad i didn't try to hedgeComment -
Come on. This is beyond dodgy. Pavly's hitting very easy shots into the net and way out now. Thank goodness I watched this. I would've thought I made the right pick. Nope. Just on the right side of a Russian fix job.
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we need to get friendly with davydenko to find out which russians to bet onComment -
Yeah, I guess this is one of those times that it worked out for me that we have to call in live bets here in Australia. By the time I saw Kleybanova start to go loopy, the odds had dropped too much and if I called it in at that point, I would've been paying almost 10x my bet just to hedge. Hopefully no one listened when I said hedging would be a good idea. Never imagined this crap would've happened. I should've known to be wary with two Russians involved.Originally posted by BetaB
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10 games in a row and won
Also, i look up the wrong name i was robert garrdius game that was cancelled.Comment -
yeah, i know. Even with betfair they won't allow you to do live bet. TAP suckOriginally posted by shari91Yeah, I guess this is one of those times that it worked out for me that we have to call in live bets here in Australia. By the time I saw Kleybanova start to go loopy, the odds had dropped too much and if I called it in at that point, I would've been paying almost 10x my bet just to hedge. Hopefully no one listened when I said hedging would be a good idea. Never imagined this crap would've happened. I should've known to be wary with two Russians involved.Comment -
L. Mayer/Keothavong +119Comment -
Strycova/Arvidsson/Hradecka/Marino +173 0.25x
Foretz Gacon +150 0.25xComment -
shari would you recommend betting all your straight bets for the same amount? From what I understood before, your unit structure of 0.5 and 0.25 does not necessarily represent your confidence level.Comment -
No, today I'd recommend betting them as I'm showing them. When I've gone bigger on a play today - and the only one I have and will was Scheepers - that was more of a gut feel on my part and isn't something I'd feel comfortable posting at the start of a tournament. As I said, I'm typically very crappy at the start of tournaments and the units I'm posting are what I feel ok recommending others to bet on certain plays. They're exactly the units that I've told friends off the forum to bet as well.Originally posted by reformedComment -
wow, shari you sure staying up late. BOL with your playComment -
Originally posted by shari91
Why do you think Gacon will win? Just wondering what your analysis is telling you. She has some continuity playing on the same surface, but really hasn't beat any higher level competition.Comment -
Nice work on your plays today Shari. I liked fading Kiri but just couldn´t pull the trigger on that bunny Scheepers again. Obviously regretting it now!
Just a general question to all on this thread, can anyone recommend a good book for tennis lines.. particularly for parlays? I´m using Pinny´s mostly but don´t like it how the reduce the lines for parlays (generally by a couple of cents)... just doesn´t seem fair and i don´t anyone-else who does that.
Any advice appreciated.
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Well, there's quite a few things that led me to take Gacon at this price but as for basics: the last time Govortsova won a match on this surface was Oct 2009 and she's only played 2 matches on it from then to now - both losers obviously. Gacon has been basically living on these courts with some pretty decent results, albeit a lot of them were on the ITF. But she breezed through qualifying and if you were one of those line movement types, her price has dropped over 30 cents from when it opened.Originally posted by Gaskan
It's difficult for me to get into much more than that but when I'm looking at a match, I always analyse the match first and then see what the price is telling me. If I think a player is paying more than they should be - either as a dog or a favourite - then I jump on. Gacon has more of a chance in this match than her price right now is saying she does. And she definitely had more of a chance than her $3 opening price implied which is why it has dropped.
For all I know, her or any dog I pick will get smoked when they step out on the court but when there's a discrepancy based on the numbers I project then I have to take it.
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You couldn't have said it better Shari.You made your point. I like the play and the odds are the way I like 'em. Gacon it is.Originally posted by shari91Well, there's quite a few things that led me to take Gacon at this price but as for basics: the last time Govortsova won a match on this surface was Oct 2009 and she's only played 2 matches on it from then to now - both losers obviously. Gacon has been basically living on these courts with some pretty decent results, albeit a lot of them were on the ITF. But she breezed through qualifying and if you were one of those line movement types, her price has dropped over 30 cents from when it opened.
It's difficult for me to get into much more than that but when I'm looking at a match, I always analyse the match first and then see what the price is telling me. If I think a player is paying more than they should be - either as a dog or a favourite - then I jump on. Gacon has more of a chance in this match than her price right now is saying she does. And she definitely had more of a chance than her $3 opening price implied which is why it has dropped.
For all I know, her or any dog I pick will get smoked when they step out on the court but when there's a discrepancy based on the numbers I project then I have to take it.Comment -
I am debating taking keothavong at -156. is that good value?Comment -
I personally wouldn't lay chalk like that in a first round, even though she's playing one of the player's I feel I know best on the Tour and who is beyond shithouse. Coaching issues, funding issues, mental issues. Wozniak is beyond a mess. But again, it is the first round and I've seen too many upsets happen week in and week out, especially in women's tennis. I stuck her in a parlay but if you really want to go for it, then yeah, it's probably a safe-ish kind of bet.Originally posted by reformedComment -
thanks Shari. I like the analysis.
Good call so far ...Comment -
Beyond shithouse.
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hmm keothavong dropped from -175 to -147 in my book over the last 3 hours. I guess I will wait till gametime...I dont know what to make of the odds drop though.Comment -
ouch. our 4 teamer isn't looking to good to start off with ole strycov getting a beat downComment -
Either a lot of my fellow Canadians are nuts and betting on her, there's a hidden injury concern or the match is fixed. My guess is it's people jumping on the perceived 'value' in Wozniak but I'm telling you, unless Keo comes out, sits down on the court and hands her the match, I can't see how she wins this one. Again though, I don't recommend laying the chalk in first rounds.Originally posted by reformedComment -
Is she?! Go figure - the last one I added.Originally posted by blackbeSSt
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are you puttin that in a parlay?Originally posted by shari91
nevermind i just read you didComment -
Yeah, that's how I write parlays. I don't post doubles. Welcome to my thread and best of luckOriginally posted by PRiiMO
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