Originally posted by shari91
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Potito Starace i'd imagineOriginally posted by OptionalComment -
Thanks (duh @ me)
Anyone think either Aussie girl will win their Fed Cup matches today?
Schiavone/Pennetta/Italy Win Tie +482 'feels' like pretty good value, even against the home court advantage..Comment -
cost me large had a 2unit par Izak +155/Berrer +185 2units to win12.54Originally posted by shari91
**** him
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That's terrible. A friend and I liked Izak and then chickened out. Good on you for taking him!Originally posted by Ruffcost me large had a 2unit par Izak +155/Berrer +185 2units to win12.54
**** him
Sorry - Internet has gone shit here thanks to the storms so my only posted play is Starace/Anderson 2 units :$Comment -
I went for it even if you didn't in the end, so I'm counting it.Originally posted by Optional
Mayer +200 over Cilic in Zagreb QF.Comment -
Mayer!!Comment -
Frenchie is playing super well today in the M man. That future looks great!Comment -
Congrats for Mayer suggestions Shari!Comment -
Thoughts on foggy?Comment -
good call with mayer, cilic really is doneComment -
Cilic is on our hate list for a reason
How's it going Shari. I am back for the foreseeable future so I will be sure to help out in the tennis section.Comment -
Wish I saw the writeup on the cilic match before I put the bet in.
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potato is trashComment -
Shari your par cashed congratsOriginally posted by shari91
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Anyone else liking Schiavone against Groth???Comment -
This future bet is going to give me grey hairs now. I put a unit on it thinking I'd have a great trading opportunity earlier in the tournament and green out some - obviously not the whole $10,000. Now though, it's getting serious. I honestly thought since I had picked ok with the futures in the Aussie Open that my luck had been used up for the year. Cripes - it's very hard to hedge this one with that much money involved.Originally posted by beefcake
Happy to see the parlay and Mayer cashed. Sorry I couldn't get on here to confirm Mayer in time, but by the time my Internet was up again the match had started. Hopefully a few of you jumped on.
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Definitely hedge it!Comment -
What future are you talking about?Comment -
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. If I put $1000 on Anderson and he wins I'll get $300 after I take out what I spent on the future. If Mannarino wins then I'm down $1000 but then can hedge again in the final. Bloody hell. After this I'm not touching futures again for awhile.Originally posted by noober
Yoshi, I have a future bet on Mannarino at $51 from before the tournament started. I've bumped the thread I posted it in so you could see.
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I find the only way to play futures is that the play needs to be favored "or close to favorites" in the later stages of the tourneys to get any kind of hedge value. I have that problem with the Steelers at 23-1. I lost a large hedge on the Jet/Steeler game.
I have no idea why the packers are favored....anyway I need to lay -145 on GB on a hedge ...could have been worse but you hope for you future play to be favored late.
Gluck Shari and keep on rolling along.Comment -
Man, you should've got at it when it was -2, then you could've got it relatively cheaper. At one point my book had packers -120 lolComment -
You're right Ruff. But I guess that's why he was $51 pre tourney - his chances to make it even this far were somewhat slim according to the books. I do know though that I'm never getting involved with a future this size again. The amounts involved when it comes to hedging are ridiculous, especially if you have to do it two days in a row. Still not sure how I'm actually going to do this so any suggestions are welcome.
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Very well done Shari. Wish I had seen that earlier...good luck if you decide to hedgeComment -
Shari, Giraldo or Starace?Comment -
assuming your able to bet up to 3k on futures at the book you use (if you're outside the us, i'd imagine you could but im not positive), you could bet on all the other players to win and lock up an $1133 profit. all you need to do to find that is plug in the #'s here... http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/Originally posted by shari91You're right Ruff. But I guess that's why he was $51 pre tourney - his chances to make it even this far were somewhat slim according to the books. I do know though that I'm never getting involved with a future this size again. The amounts involved when it comes to hedging are ridiculous, especially if you have to do it two days in a row. Still not sure how I'm actually going to do this so any suggestions are welcome.
hedging match by match is a different story... i haven't done the calc's yet but to do so you'd need to estimate what the "true" line is for Mannarino vrs Van Der Merwe/Deverrman. My model says Mannarino would be -300ish against Van Der Merwe and -130ish against Deverrman. If those numbers are even close to accurate, you gotta hedge match to match. Now the question is, how much should you lay on Anderson in their match (fwiw i have anderson as -124 against mannarino)? that's a tough question that some basic (but time consuming) math can solve and i'm really too tired to do it. but regardless, if you think mannarino will be favored/flipping in the finals, then i think laying the $ on anderson is the best course of action.
just my 2 centsComment -
IMO Kontinen has such a juicy odds vs Zverev at Rotterdam qualies that it simply should be takenComment -
Agree...if it was Henri but it is only Micke. Not the same thing.Originally posted by necroComment -
lol !!!Originally posted by blackbesstmaybe he bet on himself
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These are the two futures I booked on February 1st:
Player to win SA Tennis Open Y.H. Lu @ 19.51 Risking $17.29 to win $320
Player to win PBZ Zagreb Indoors I.Dodig @ 13.50 Risking $20.00 to win $250
Fading Raonic wasn't such a bad idea after all, but he blew up a little too late... now the second future I think might hit.
Dodig is a slight favorite against GGL, and should be a slight favorite again if Berrer gets to the final (or a slight dog in the +110-130 range vs Mayer)
So as of right now, I give Ivan about 50% (0.5) to win either of the two matches he has to win for my future to cash.
0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25
So he should win this tournament about once in four tries... this is an equivalent of Ace-Queen beating Ace-King when all in preflop twodimes calculator
Please let me know if you agree (and especially if you don't) with my reasoning/math. This isn't exactly a decision worth hundreds, but I've gotten solid results betting futures over the past seasons - both in NBA and tennis - and would like to get the whole 'to hedge or not to hedge' part of it figured out.
Good luck today shari!
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hey mirar,Originally posted by Mirar BaseballThese are the two futures I booked on February 1st:
Player to win SA Tennis Open Y.H. Lu @ 19.51 Risking $17.29 to win $320
Player to win PBZ Zagreb Indoors I.Dodig @ 13.50 Risking $20.00 to win $250
Fading Raonic wasn't such a bad idea after all, but he blew up a little too late... now the second future I think might hit.
Dodig is a slight favorite against GGL, and should be a slight favorite again if Berrer gets to the final (or a slight dog in the +110-130 range vs Mayer)
So as of right now, I give Ivan about 50% (0.5) to win either of the two matches he has to win for my future to cash.
0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25
So he should win this tournament about once in four tries... this is an equivalent of Ace-Queen beating Ace-King when all in preflop twodimes calculator
Please let me know if you agree (and especially if you don't) with my reasoning/math. This isn't exactly a decision worth hundreds, but I've gotten solid results betting futures over the past seasons - both in NBA and tennis - and would like to get the whole 'to hedge or not to hedge' part of it figured out.
Good luck today shari!
in most situations, assuming you're using proper bankroll management, hedging is typically a bad idea. if you blindly hedge in all of these situation without factoring in the current line and what you perceive to be the breakeven line, then you're going about it all wrong. theoretically, the lines the books put out for each match are efficient. based on this assumption, each time you wager on a particular match, you will lose money over time. so in most situations you are cutting into the expected value of your future bet.
with that said, there are times that hedging can be useful/more profitable based on the factors below:
1) your adversity to risk. this is pretty obvious, so I don't feel like much of an explanation is necessary. if you're THAT worried about losing, hedge away, but just realize you're eating into your ev MOST of the time.
2) your bankroll. if the $ you can win will be life changing and you can't justify "letting it ride", then it might be a good idea to hedge. for instance, player A has a 10k bankroll and throws 100 on a player than is 100-1, it's the quarterfinals and they KNOW they can lock up a 2k profit if they bet against themselves, guaranteeing a 20% bankroll increase. percentage-wise that's pretty huge, so for this player it might be worth sacrificing the EV.
3) if you estimate that the "true" line for the current match and the upcoming match(es) are significantly different than the books. for instance, semi-finals of a tournament, your player who you have a large future bet on is even money in the semis. BUT based on your estimation he should be more of a dog than the current line indicates. if what you predict the "true" line is considerable, then you may have a good hedge situation.
the second part of this is tricky... after you're done with the first part you need to estimate the odds they will be playing player X and Y in the final, estimate the "true" odds, and the hardest part, estimate what line the books will put out.
hope this helps!Comment -
so what'd ya end up doing?Originally posted by shari91You're right Ruff. But I guess that's why he was $51 pre tourney - his chances to make it even this far were somewhat slim according to the books. I do know though that I'm never getting involved with a future this size again. The amounts involved when it comes to hedging are ridiculous, especially if you have to do it two days in a row. Still not sure how I'm actually going to do this so any suggestions are welcome.Comment -
googogogogoComment -
M took the 1st set! Shari hope you hedged with live betting! Now is the time!Comment -
Sadly no! The one night I manage to fall asleep quite earlyOriginally posted by beefcake
I did however hedge on Anderson straight up. Not for the whole amount obviously as Anderson's price wouldn't allow that but for a pretty good profit regardless. I didn't bother putting money on Izak or Somdev because if Mannarino made it to the Final, I would've let the bet ride for the most part. Anderson was his big threat and rightly so.
So no fairy tale $10k payout but Mannarino still made me a couple of grand which is a first for me from a future bet in a small tournament. Woohoo Adrian!!
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