Shari's tennis plays

shari91 · 02-03-11, 06:03 AM

Have three plays today although I only spent a bit of time on them so everyone should probably fade away:

Dodig/Chela $1.70

Dancevic/Mannarino $2.00

Zeballos $5.25 only a quarter unit play

shari91 · 02-03-11, 07:17 AM

Adding Brands/Ljubicic over 22.5 $1.70 for a quarter unit.

I've said it a million times but its worth repeating - I suck at totals and am still trying to learn so it's probably best to fade this one too. I'm betting it though so thought I should post.

GAMBLOR777 · 02-03-11, 07:24 AM

good luck tonight shari

Optional · 02-03-11, 07:40 AM

I'm always in for a longshot to beat Nalby.

Tommy_de1st · 02-03-11, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by Tommy_de1st

Shari, do you like Berrer and Clement?

Both won

shari91 · 02-03-11, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by Tommy_de1st

Both won

Once in awhile I am wrong believe it or not!!

Hope you played them.

Tommy_de1st · 02-03-11, 08:17 AM

No Shari, i didn't but it's ok, it doesn't matter
Never gonna go against your tennis picks

shari91 · 02-03-11, 09:11 AM

You should though Tommy when you like something. It's the worst feeling to not play it only to see it win. Kind of like how I feel about Anderson right now.

benrama · 02-03-11, 09:24 AM

Yes Shari, i went to post in your thread about Andreson as well, but my stupid iPhone is horrible to post on. Thought it was rather pointless now to say anything about it, but happily I made a rather irresponsible large bet on Anderson and got him at -183, but have no regrets. You have to take these chances when you get them, especially on home courts.

This has probably been my most successful strategy in tennis betting to be honest, taking favs ML/ATS and dogs (almost no matter what the price) when the tournament is on their home court - and not a Slam or Masters. I'm actually thinking of backtesting some data to see if there's something in this strategy, I've just sort of loosely followed it thus far - you don't know where this type of thing is available?

As for later games today, suffice to say I'm on Wolmarans (small play), but the good news for you and your Dancevic bet is that once i mention something I jinx it.

benrama · 02-03-11, 09:33 AM

I'm also on a Dodig/Ljubicic parlay at +111 - along the lines of the same thinking.

shari91 · 02-03-11, 09:46 AM

Ben, I feel your pain about the iPhone. Its been my sole means of posting for two weeks. Even ran two tennis contests from it and I swear I almost flushed the phone down the toilet many times.

I have no idea where you could find that data other than paying for it or collating it yourself. Not to say it doesn't exist but I just don't know about it.

All the best with your plays (except Wolmarans of course

)

blackbeSSt · 02-03-11, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by shari91

Have three plays today although I only spent a bit of time on them so everyone should probably fade away:

Dodig/Chela $1.70

Dancevic/Mannarino $2.00

Zeballos $5.25 only a quarter unit play

cash those 2

EaglesPhan36 · 02-03-11, 08:34 PM

Nice sweep today Shari. I should just start tailing you since I can't pick a winner for shit, but I feel like my bad mojo would fukk you up - so I'll just say keep killin it and I'll keep shoveling dirt on my grave.

labrador · 02-03-11, 08:37 PM

Good call on Zeballos!

Optional · 02-03-11, 08:46 PM

Wow Shari. You have an impressive 2011 record of picking off top seeds so far.

Ciblukova +400 over Wozzi in Sydney Rnd 1
Li Na -110 over Wozzi in Melbourne SF
Dancevic +220 over Lopez in Joberg Rnd 1
Zeballos +425 over Nalby in Santiago R16

Waiting for you to tip against Cilic in Zagreb now ;-)

shari91 · 02-03-11, 08:51 PM

Well that's a nice way to first log on today! I checked my accounts and just assumed Zeballos lost and then when I saw the match wasn't resulted yet on TI I started to follow the live scores. Was kicking myself for a bit there for not taking Zeballos just to win the first set but I'm happy he came through!! Nalby - you're now forgiven for retiring at the Aussie Open.

EP - I know you already know but this shit happens. Remember I had those 2 days in a row last year where I couldn't pick a winner to save my life? Losing in tiebreaks, my big dogs winning the first set and then shitting the bed. And normally I have so many plays that 2 days of mine would equal a week or two of your number of plays. It was horrific. But if you just keep doing what you always do, it'll correct itself even though it's hard to believe sometimes when you're caught in the middle of it.

I will say though, for the most part this week the dogs just aren't barking. It kills me to post these damn parlays because I know how much bookies love them, as they should, but there haven't been that many dogs I've liked at all. Either the books have smartened up this week or players are actually trying for the most part - even in Zagreb!

shari91 · 02-03-11, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Wow Shari. You have an impressive 2011 record of picking off top seeds so far.
Ciblukova +400 over Wozzi in Sydney Rnd 1
Li Na -110 over Wozzi in Melbourne SF
Dancevic +220 over Lopez in Joberg Rnd 1
Zeballos +425 over Nalby in Santiago R16
Waiting for you to tip against Cilic in Zagreb now ;-)

Wow. I didn't realize that! Because I'm on my phone I've been relying on someone else to track my bets and data, and then they just tell me the info when I ask them.

Thanks for that update, Optional. That's made me quite happy to see!

onizuka · 02-03-11, 10:08 PM

shari91, you are Tennis Guru at SBR

Mirar Baseball · 02-03-11, 10:27 PM

The bookies sure didn't like my parlays today! Well done shari!

brettels · 02-04-11, 12:14 AM

Well I'm back, just got electricity to my house after cyclone yasi! Some tiles on roof need to be fixed, trees gooonnnne and was freakin scary. In the process tisarevic had to lose what a bastard!

shari91 · 02-04-11, 04:46 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Well I'm back, just got electricity to my house after cyclone yasi! Some tiles on roof need to be fixed, trees gooonnnne and was freakin scary. In the process tisarevic had to lose what a bastard!

Happy to see you back!! And I'm glad to hear you managed to get with relatively little damage to your home.

bennyt · 02-04-11, 05:36 AM

anyone else like giraldo tonight?

brettels · 02-04-11, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Happy to see you back!! And I'm glad to hear you managed to get with relatively little damage to your home.

thanks superwoman, next time don't breath so heavy

on a really small bet berrer to beat gasquet, first time i have ever bet against RG

Mirar Baseball · 02-04-11, 07:18 AM

shari, you've mentioned before that this is the stage in a tennis tournament you consider your forte (the middle)... are you also more comfortable laying high juice at this 'stage'? I'm talking -150 to -300, rather than your usual -110s and -130s and the underdogs?

p.s. I like both Berrer (-130) and Dodig (-190)to win at least a set

shari91 · 02-04-11, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by brettels

thanks superwoman, next time don't breath so heavy

on a really small bet berrer to beat gasquet, first time i have ever bet against RG

If it's any consolation, we're getting hammered here with storms now and apparently it's going to last for the next day or two. Nothing like you guys had obviously but enough that they've issued flood warnings for Northern VIC and are worried our catchments are going to overflow/burst here in Melb. Unreal - we go from severe water restrictions to too much water.

Again though, I'm honestly happy you made it through mainly unscathed.

I like Berrer to a certain extent. I'm not going to bet him but it's a pretty good spot to take him in considering Gasquet hasn't played here yet.

Benny -I looked at Giraldo too but again I'll most likely stay away. I'm leaning towards a parlay of Potato and Anderson, and maybe a smaller bet on Mayer. I really don't like betting on Potato though so I haven't managed to pull the trigger yet. If I do, it'll be a two unit bet with Mayer a half unit.

beefcake · 02-04-11, 07:34 AM

Yeah mayer continues to get no respect from the books or bettors,of course playing cilic at home is a tough task, but the price has risen to a point now where I might play him.

erkanua · 02-04-11, 07:43 AM

Why you are on Mayer? He is a poor indoor hard court player; he is 27-28 in all time and 3-7 against TOP 20 players.

brettels · 02-04-11, 07:47 AM

Originally posted by shari91

If it's any consolation, we're getting hammered here with storms now and apparently it's going to last for the next day or two. Nothing like you guys had obviously but enough that they've issued flood warnings for Northern VIC and are worried our catchments are going to overflow/burst here in Melb. Unreal - we go from severe water restrictions to too much water.

Again though, I'm honestly happy you made it through mainly unscathed.

I like Berrer to a certain extent. I'm not going to bet him but it's a pretty good spot to take him in considering Gasquet hasn't played here yet.

thanks, apparently its from cyclone anthony that you are getting all the rain from. not sure if thats fact though, stay safe.

shari91 · 02-04-11, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by erkanua

Why you are on Mayer? He is a poor indoor hard court player; he is 27-28 in all time and 3-7 against TOP 20 players.

I'm not on Mayer yet but I will say an all-time record is one of the very last things I look at. People improve, form changes, etc. As for rankings, I don't consider that at all as there is no ranking for particular surface.

Without saying too much, I look at the past year on the surface. Cilic 12-5, 71% losing to Nalby, Murray, Kohl, Djoko and Lucky Loser Haider-Maurer in Vienna. Keep in mind one of those 12 wins was against the world famous Giovanni Lapentti at the Davis Cup. Mayer is 8-4 67% losing to Djoko (same as Cilic), Federer, Phau and LL Mathieu. Look at the people Mayer has beat in the same time frame - Tipsy, Soderling, Robredo, Nieminen, Lopez. Not really crap on the surface.

As I said, I'm not going to get into much more but Mayer stands more of a chance than the price here says - if the match is legit and the ump is fair.

Mirar, no I'm not more comfortable with the juice yet only because everyone is transitioning to a new surface and these are dinky donk tourneys in the scheme of things after a Slam. I've seen people in the tennis forum get burnt laying the chalk on Tipsy, Nalby, Lopez and Raonic already. I hate laying chalk as it is but this week is even worse and that's why I'm sticking to shitty parlays.

blackbeSSt · 02-04-11, 08:38 AM

HA! Gasquet just retired!

brettels · 02-04-11, 08:48 AM

dam it!! not even a set completed. anyone confirm why he retired?

beefcake · 02-04-11, 09:02 AM

Fukking bastard...just play one more dam game you moron!

blackbeSSt · 02-04-11, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Fukking bastard...just play one more dam game you moron!

maybe he bet on himself

shari91 · 02-04-11, 09:23 AM

He's a prick. Honestly that is such a bad move I can't even comprehend it. His first match is a walkover and then when he's down 5-2 he retires. I didn't have a cent on that match at all but he can go get fukked. Thanks for coming out for the paycheck Casket.

blackbeSSt · 02-04-11, 09:29 AM

oh well! what else is on the docket for today shari?