Stacocakes Madrid Open thread

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 03:20 PM

Good hedge, but I don't think you're going to need it. I'm about 99% certain that I won't be betting Cilic for much. He's on my list with Andreev. Gulbis with an easy opening set. Hoping he pounds Lopez in the 2nd and gets that parlay done for me so I can at least be around even today.

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 03:21 PM

Geez the game right after I hedged that parlay Federer breaks.That is my luck haha. Can't believe it.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 03:30 PM

After my original thought pre-tourney that Federer would be in trouble here, the more I looked and thought ... I think he is going to be in Serena Land in the future where he is always a Slam threat and plays well in his last tournament pre-Slam ... but outside of that, you can probably make some money fading him in the right spots in other events where I think he just goes through the motions somewhat at this point - like Estoril and Rome.

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 03:31 PM

Ya I agree with that

I am not even looking at what number I can get wawrinka at now in-play after the first set here. Couldn't have timed that hedge any worse. Needed the guaranteed profit though. Who knows maybe Federer loses this anyways he won the first set against Gulbis didn't he haha

obie · 05-13-10, 03:32 PM

Wawrinka to win second set 2 @ 3,50 on liveodds.

obie · 05-13-10, 03:35 PM

Oh my good COME ON WAWRINKA !

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 03:36 PM

Did you take him Obie?Wawrinka blows the first game of the second set. This match looks to be over

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 03:57 PM

Federer wins easily in straight sets.Figures haha

MUHerd37 · 05-13-10, 04:14 PM

Gulbis wins!!!!!

MUHerd37 · 05-13-10, 04:16 PM

I got hurt by Verdasco but I came back in the day, no thanks to the St Louis Cardinals. Gulbis will face Federer in the QFs. Interesting match as Gulbis beat Federer a couple weeks ago. Federer seems like he's locked in tho. The French is just 10 days from today so Federer is getting his shit set straight. Gulbis is playing great tennis so the prices should be interesting.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 04:24 PM

Yeah prices tomorrow may make parlays the only way to go. I see Almagro is -270 over Melzer. Rafa ridiculous of course at -2550 over Monfils. Certain Ferrer & Federer will both be in the -200s.

MUHerd37 · 05-13-10, 04:30 PM

Hey Eagles and Staco I know you guys love betting some matches based just on the price. Either of you checked out BetUS? They have the dumbest prices out there. They love to inflate lines in all sports, but especially in tennis. 5Dimes and Bookmaker usually have lines that are either exactly the same at least damn close. Then BetUS has their lines that aren't even in the ballpark. Sometimes their lines for favorites can be 2-3x higher. Can make it really appealing to take the dogs when they do that. Might want to check it out.

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 05:18 PM

hmm will definately look into the MUherd. Not sure if the dog prices would be better then an exchange like Betfair but it's worth a try to check them out.

Ferrer and Murray coming up again. Like Ferrer in this matchup. He was great today and Murray is still suspect on this surface. He played decent today but it will take a great match from him to defeat Ferrer

Nadal price is ridiculous I agree. It's based on the fact that Monfils never wins anything meaningfull though haha.I will pass on that.

Federer -260 is interesting. He would probably like to get back at Gulbis for the loss a couple weeks ago. Going to pass on him though. Realized today when I had him vs Wawrinka that the stress from watching Roger's matches aren't worth the -250 plus price tags.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 05:30 PM

Ferrer just -150, wow. I know there is a great "ranking" disparity, but as Staco points out the surface differential in how each plays on it I thought would give Ferrer a price around -200. I don't expect this price to go anywhere but up towards -200.

Looking at Ferrer + Federer or Almagro. Either one will pay off at +120 or better. Probably leaning Almagro. I do think Federer is focused here, but Gulbis has two career matches against him and has shown in both that he isn't scared at all. Considering one was on hard courts in January to start the year where Gulbis took a set off Rog. If Gulbis has his serve working, he can stay with anyone and his #s have been solid so far.

O/U for tomorrow - Nadal/Monfils Under if it's 20.5 or better. 20 or less, no play for me. Melzer-Almagro would like an Over if they post it low at 20.5 or so. Think it's gonna be that or 21. If it's higher, no chance I'll touch it.

Also want to see where the line goes with Stosur & Venus. I really like Stosur's game on clay and don't think she gets enough props for how well she is playing. Venus has done a good job this week so far. Could be a good one to take an over on also. Don't pay any attention to the head-2-head.

beefcake · 05-13-10, 06:46 PM

Bout time I hit a big fave parlay..

Also love that Double F parlay eagles..!

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 11:17 PM

Nice hit Beefcake.What did that parlay play?

Really think Stosur is a good play Eagles. I was kinda hoping that the price would have been higher though.It's always nice to get a good payout when you take a chance on a good dog but the +115 payout isn't really jumping at me.

I think Federer gets his revenge against Gulbis tomorrow. Roger looked really good today beating Wawrinka fairly easily. Probably best to parlay him with Ferrer instead of Almagro.

Agree on the under in the Nadal match Eagles. Monfils is not really a fighter and if Nadal comes out early and starts to kick his ass then Monfils will just give up like he usually does. Melzer/Almagro I am not sure about.Can really see that match going either way I don't have much faith in Almagro. He's burnt me in the past

Both Ferrer and Federer are playing in the afternoon tomorrow so I am going to rest on it. Will probably make the play in the morning. Best of luck tomorrow guys

beefcake · 05-13-10, 11:21 PM

Payed just over 3-1...

tailmypicks · 05-13-10, 11:28 PM

gonna play stosur again

obie · 05-14-10, 04:37 AM

Yes I did play it Staco, too bad that federer finally shows up in a second set

..
But to hell with it, lets talk about today ! Like Melzer to beat almagro @ 3,50 .. Any thoughts ?

obie · 05-14-10, 05:13 AM

Stosur to beat Venus ! Great play, I think she beats he in straight sets.

Stacocakes · 05-14-10, 06:59 AM

Venus serving out the first set right now.Hopefully Stosur comes back for you guys

Going to do the parlay I mentioned earlier for today:

Federer/Ferrer +129

I feel really good about Federer winning his match today getting some revenge over Gulbis. Ferrer I am kinda 60/40 on.I had this same feeling last time these two played when I took Ferrer and he won easily so hopefully this match goes the same way.

Best of luck today guys.Hope Stosur comes back for you

EaglesPhan36 · 05-14-10, 07:33 AM

I'll be there with you on Ferrer this afternoon. I had Ferrer + Almagro for my parlay today. Taking Peer this morning, skipped Stosur. Only playing the total maybe in the Fed-Gulbis match.

Stacocakes · 05-14-10, 09:18 AM

Damn Eagles should have played the Nadal under that you liked. Looks like Monfils is playing exactly like everyone thought he would.Doubt he puts up much of a fight in the second set

EaglesPhan36 · 05-14-10, 09:21 AM

Yeah except I decided for shits to take the over at 19.5 at +145 because I thought it would finish maybe around 20. That was the number I looked at yesterday. Monfils died in his 2nd service game when he went from 40-15 and let Nadal win. I think after that he just said F it. Hope he quits.

Stacocakes · 05-14-10, 09:28 AM

Watching the rallies in this nadal match looks like he is playing someone from the crowd. Totally different class here and not even close

Stacocakes · 05-14-10, 09:41 AM

2 bps mug

fils

Stacocakes · 05-14-10, 09:45 AM

Nadal saves the bps and wins the game. Nice hold

Surprised that Nadal's outrights haven't moved at all since I got them yesterday. I got the outrights before the Isner match yesterday so he has beat Isner and will soon beat Monfils to get into the semifinals but the outright odds haven't changed at all. Pretty surprised

Stacocakes · 05-14-10, 09:48 AM

Did you guys just see what happened?Monfils faulted so he looked to the ball girl for another ball to serve and she is just standing there so he starts waving his arms for a bit to get her attention haha. That was at 40-0. He then double faults on that second serve and the game is now at deuce. Could be the turning point of the match haha

obie · 05-14-10, 09:56 AM

haha yea I saw it, pretty funny

Stacocakes · 05-14-10, 10:10 AM

Peer gets the break in the third set.Hope she pulls it out for you guys

Nadal easily beats monfils.No surprise there

Guess we have a bit of a wait till the Federer match starts. Should be a good match

EaglesPhan36 · 05-14-10, 10:11 AM

Yeah Monfils is a total hump. How many times you gonna give away service games up 40-0 or 40-15? That's why he's never going to fulfill his "potential." I think he'll get those runs here & there in Slams when he gets good match-ups and actually decides to think during matches, but mostly he's a putz.

Stacocakes · 05-14-10, 10:42 AM

Peer wins though it wasn't easy haha. Nice hit Eagles

Stacocakes · 05-14-10, 10:43 AM

These tennis matches have like 100 people watching them.You would think they would have more of an audience there.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-14-10, 10:56 AM

Might be the weather for some of the outdoor courts, cool over there in Madrid plus if it's the WTA matches - who is going to watch those in a non-Slam for the most part?

Trying to make up my mind on the Federer-Gulbis total. It's 22. Have been thinking OVER, chalk is thinking OVER. Or could go to finish in three sets at +167. Heavy support on Federer now at over -300.

MUHerd37 · 05-14-10, 11:45 AM

I need Ferrer and Jankovic to finish off a parlay of 6.