Stacocakes Madrid Open thread

[Stacocakes]

Monatanes goes down in straight sets. Oh well.Was worth a shot at that price.

Wawrinka doing good so far. Up a set and a break. Seems like most here are on him which is good

Lots of retirements again today. Happens far to often these days

Some upsets so far today. Pennetta, Radwanska both go down

[shantymoon]

why do u think karlovic will beat verdasco, i have him in a parlay and ur karlovic pick is bothering me

[obie]

federer won 6-2 in first set .. Im going to take becker +7,5 @ 1,66 on liveodds .

[Stacocakes]

Hmm a couple people on Karlovic to upset Verdasco. Have to admit that I was looking at that as well but I just can't pull the trigger on it. Hard to bet on Karlovic because he can't move at all on this court. Just have to rely on his serve and thats it. Think it might be worth a shot though at that price of +425.Going to pass on it though. You guys are right though,Verdasco is due an early round exit at some point.

[Stacocakes]

Federer looks in control today. Eventhough Becker is a complete stiff Federer was not worth backing at these odds today.Not with his recent poor outings. I think it will be worth a chance to take Wawrinka over Federer next round if the price is decent

[Stacocakes]

Wow everyone woke up to Berdych being a dog. Could have got him as high as +111 yesterday to beat Nalbandian and now Berdych is -111 and Nalbandian is the small dog. Passing on that match but I think Berdych is still the play in that match

[Stacocakes]

Geez Wawrinka gets broken in the second set. Figured this match was over

[EaglesPhan36]

I think people are taking Karlovic because Madrid clay plays faster and could help keep him in the match. Still, Verdasco is in solid form on clay and should beat him if he shows up to play.

[Stacocakes]

Wawrinka wins

Seems most here were on him

[obie]

Becker +7,5 going home i THINK. If he wins in tiebreak only thing that can ruin the play is is federer wins 6-1, and thats not gonna happend!

[obie]

Becker +7,5 won ..
Now moving on to verdasco. No way he is losing this match! Verdasco 2-0 for me .

[Stacocakes]

good luck with Verdasco

First two legs of the parlay won with Wawrinka and Isner winning.Just need Dementieva now who is up a break in the third set.Didn't think the match would be this close.How in the hell did Dementieva lose 6-1 in the first set

[Stacocakes]

Double break for Dementieva in the third set.Bring it home

[EaglesPhan36]

Look at Dementieva's 1st serving numbers - you'll see how she blew that. 31% of the points won on 1st serves. Did you see both Berdych and Nalbandian I think withdrew?

[Stacocakes]

Verdasco wins the first set

Dementieva is choking away this match.Unbelievable.Already blew one break

[obie]

Verdasco won the first set in tiebreak. I thin he will BLOW out karlovic in second set. verdasco -3,5 for me on liveodds @ 2,00

[Stacocakes]

haha never even noticed that both withdrew.That is weird. Have never seen that before

[beefcake]

What bullcrap..both withdrawing?..so Melzer gets a free pass into the 3rd?

[Stacocakes]

Looks like fish and russell are in now to take the place of Nalbandian and Berdych

Dementieva about to lose the match here.Unbelievable. Blown parlay after being up 2 breaks in the third set. Nothing weird about that match at all...

[Stacocakes]

Really mad right now about the Dementieva match. Not going to say anything further on that. You guys know what is happening.I will just leave it at that

Lost the dog in montanes and lost the parlay because of Dementieva

[obie]

verdasco wins 6-3 and my -3,5 till 2,00 goes home! Gotta love this evening

[MUHerd37]

I can't believe my own screw up. I made another parlay today in which I had the Verdasco match under 22.5. Or at least I thought I did. I accidentally checked the over box instead of the under. Pisses me off. Won another parlay tho. Made just a little today which is better than losing money.

[Stacocakes]

Good to see you guys made some money today. Verdasco match was really close in the first set and then Karlovic let off the gas after that point

Looking ahead to tomorrow there are some good matches. Roddick is very poor on clay but he should be able to beat Lopez. I'm just not really sold on Lopez as a decent player at all though he has been winning some matches lately. Will take Roddick in that match at -149.

Murray/Chela is another interesting match. Chela might be a good dog in that situation at +297. Murray is in a horrible downward spiral and the clay courts are not what he needs to get out of that.

Ivanovic/Jankovic match is tomorrow. Ana is 7-2 lifetime vs Jankovic. Hard to bet on Ana at this point of her career though.Will pass on that

Venus williams is playing tomorrow against Schiavone. Decent odds on Venus at -187. Will look at that for a possibly parlay.

Just going to go and relax for a bit.Still mad about that Dementieva loss. Matches like this are why I no longer bet big favorites unless they are in a parlay.

[EaglesPhan36]

I could see taking Ana at +155. She actually looked kinda good last week. Hard match to gauge though because Jankovic is in pretty good form on clay right now and the question would have to be was last week a mirage for Ana or a sign that maybe she is finally regaining some confidence. Tough beat on Dementieva, we've all been there and it f-ing blows ... that's why my #1 rule in tennis betting is DON'T TRUST RUSSIANS.

[Stacocakes]

Should have taken Bondarenko yesterday.Was one of the posted plays I was considering. Took the wrong one with Montanes.Oh well.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, here's what I am contemplating:

Youzhny +154 over Gulbis. Some very good value on Youzhny here though Gulbis seems to be my nemesis lately. Why couldn't he have done this in the past when I use to bet on him haha

Roddick is very poor on this surface but at -155 he may be worth a shot over lopez. What really scares me though is that Roddick hasn't played for 7 weeks. No clay court events at all. Might be best to stay away from this match though the 6-0 head to head for Roddick makes me still think about it.

Tsonga, Soderling,Cilic are all at prices that would be not bad if you parlayed them up. I'm going to stay away from Murray against Chela.Could be an upset there. Ferrer is to high a price but I think he will beat Baghdatis.

On the women's side I like Jankovic to beat Ivanovic. History dictates Ivanovic would win that match but she has been so bad the last year or so,except for the last week. Probably best to pass on that match

Serena Williams over Petrova at -204 is definately a good play to add to the parlay. Serena is 6-2 head to head in their careers. Venus is also looking good at -199 over Schiavone. Venus is 6-0 vs Schiavone in her career.

Will still think about these matches and get back to you guys later tonight. Do you guys like anything?

[Stacocakes]

Plays for Wednesday:

Williams sisters and Roddick parlay +251

Youzhny +147

Best of luck tomorrow guys

[EaglesPhan36]

Good luck Staco. Can't say I like or dislike the Youzhny pick, but he is about a hair away from being on my no play list in most situations. Been burned by him before except last week in the tournament he excels at. On the faster surface, I'd probably give the edge to Gulbis, but anything can happen in a Russian match! Not really sure about the parlay as I did not really look too much at any of those matches, hope you get a nice bounce back day!

[Stacocakes]

Thanks Eagles. Any plays for you tomorrow?

I don't like backing Youzhny as a favorite but I don't mind taking a chance on him once in awhile as a dog. I don't trust Gulbis and I am just waiting for the wheels to fall off at some point for him. He has been playing great though. Figured it was worth a chance

Not really sure how I feel about Roddick on clay here. Hasn't been playing tennis for awhile so I am hoping he is not to rusty. Figured it would be better to put him in the parlay then to bet him by himself. Will see how it goes. Like the payout possibilities of the parlay.

[EaglesPhan36]

I went with Isner straight up and parlayed Soderling & Wawrinka.

[EaglesPhan36]

Roddick withdrew. Stomach virus.

[Stacocakes]

Roddick must be really scared of clay or something.Seems that he is doing anything in his power to skip the clay court season.Oh well.At least he didn't retire during the match.

Youzhny loses in straight sets to Gulbis.Not a great start to the day so far

[Stacocakes]

Nice hit on Isner Eagles.Wawrinka is off to a good start as well

Have you guys noticed alot more retirements and withdrawls in tennis these days?I think it's to easy for players to retire in matches now. I thought they mentioned that something was going to be done to combat this but I guess not

[beefcake]

Werent the top 20 or so players required to play so many 1000 tourneys or they would be fined? i think you can miss 1 or 2 unless injured?

[EaglesPhan36]

"Stomach virus" seems to be the useful excuse. I don't know, I think Roddick might actually have had a problem since this was going to be his only French Open tune up. Story said he had been feeling ill leading up to this one, so I guess he was going to try unless it was real bad.

Wawrinka just won by retirement.

[Stacocakes]

Ya the players are required to play all of the masters events except for one exemption I believe. The way to get around that though is just faking injuries basically.

Hopefully wawrinka only needed one set for your bet to be official Eagles.