Stacocakes Madrid Open thread

EaglesPhan36 · 05-12-10, 02:20 PM

There's the retirement. GGL backers who have rules needing just one set clean up.

Stacocakes · 05-12-10, 02:24 PM

haha Garcia-Lopez wins the first set, yes which makes most bets stand, then Tsonga retires. It's all about making money for the people that bet

EaglesPhan36 · 05-12-10, 03:19 PM

Little surprised at Baghdatis beating Ferrer right now - although Ferrer is still battling, but this court plays quicker which favors Marcos. Funny thing is Ferrer traditionally hasn't done well in Madrid even when it was a hard court event, so apparently Madrid is not home for this particular Spaniard. All I care is that they cashed my over 20.5.

Some interesting matches tomorrow: Federer-WaWa, Almagro-Monaco, Gulbis-Lopez. I see Wawrinka as +210 against Federer. I love how Wawrinka has been playing on clay and this was the first fade opp I thought on Fed, but not sure. Will wait. Interested to see the price on Almagro. He's owned Monaco on clay, although Monaco really F-ed Bellucci up today. Gulbis-Lopez, I feel an over if they set it at 22 or 22.5. Should be lots of aces in that one.

Stacocakes · 05-12-10, 08:30 PM

Was surprised that Wawrinka is only +213. I would have considered Wawrinka if there was a higher number but the low number in that match is actually making me think of taking Federer. Going to think about this one for a bit before pulling the trigger since Roger's been complete ass lately. Might include him in a parlay.

Considering Monaco over almagro but Almagro is playing infront of his home crowd plus he is 3-1 vs monaco in their careers so I think I will pass on that match.

Staying away from WTA tomorrow I believe. Have had enough of the three set losses to lesser players.

Just need to find someone to parlay with Federer. Maybe a Federer/Cleveland Cavs parlay

Who do you guys like for tomorrow?

EaglesPhan36 · 05-12-10, 09:02 PM

Tough calls tomorrow. The O/U numbers might be more of what I play. I am tending to side with you on Federer. Wawrinka is playing some really good tennis on clay, but I think the slightly faster surface helps Federe as evidenced by his run here last year. This lead-up is somewhat similar to last year when Wawrinka surprised him in Monte Carlo for an early exit and Fed made the semis in his other clay tournament before running the table in Madrid. This time, he was surprised by Gulbis in the 1st round in Rome and then ousted somewhat surprisingly by Montanes in Estoril. Now he lands in Madrid. I guess my long winded point is Federer might F around in these smaller tournaments, but normally in his final prep pre-Slam ... he is focused. Look at his final tourney numbers pre-Slams over the last two years, he's usual deep into the finals of those tournaments.

Who to pair him with is the question, I know you're not much on him but I think Gulbis might be a good one. Lopez will have the home crowd on his side and gets a little help from the faster surface, but Gulbis has proven he is a better dirt baller than F.Lo - he beat him in Rome going away in the 2nd.

That's a thought right now, but still crunching numbers. That parlay is -125.

I wish Monfils had gotten to play some yesterday because -140 would be a steal if you knew he was 100%. I'm in the same frame of mind about the Monaco-Almagro match as you. Monaco destroyed Bellucci who is pretty damn good on clay, but the head-2-head says Almagro.

Stacocakes · 05-12-10, 09:34 PM

Agree that Gulbis will beat Lopez but I just don't trust Gulbis enough to bet on him.

I know parlaying Federer with any of these guys will give a decent number but its hard to justify including a player like Murray at -426 into a parlay. Still gives you a good number but that line on Murray is just ridiculous so it's pretty much pointless putting him in the parlay. Verdasco is also priced to high for my liking.

I think it might be just Federer as a straight bet. PInnacle doesn't even have the total games market up as of yet for some reason so have to wait a bit to see what they put up there. might be something to look into

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 12:53 AM

Federer's line is starting to move up a bit as more people are betting him. Since Federer's form has been so poor recently I am not going to bet this match at the current odds of -260 but I am going to parlay it with the Cavaliers. Pinnacle doesn't allow me to parlay any basketball until tomorrow so I am going to make the parlay then. The Federer match is in the afternoon so it should be easy to get up before then to place the bet.

I couldn't really find any other matches that I was really happy with.Odds seemed to be just a bit to high for me. Just going to play this one play tomorrow.Best of luck tomorrow guys

birdmanweezy · 05-13-10, 01:03 AM

cavs are gonna lose bol...i would go with federer and maybe jankovic or almagro

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 01:07 AM

Yeah the more I looked and thought, no bet on Federer-Wawrinka except for maybe the over at 22.5. Will say though if WaWa gets over +250 and he's close ... Gotta think about it too. I'm going Almagro-Gulbis parlay. Read that Lopez has a back issue, makes Gulbis even more attractive. Watch the price to see if the inside info keeps coming there.

MUHerd37 · 05-13-10, 01:10 AM

Don't forget about D.Nestor/N.Zimonjic for doubles. They are at a big price but you can just add it to your parlay. They are a great doubles team.

MUHerd37 · 05-13-10, 01:20 AM

Really liking Verdasco in a parlay. He's 5-1 against Melzer and the only loss was a retirement. He has beaten his twice this year so far. Once on hard court and once on clay. Both of those matches did go 3 sets. Verdasco lost the first set 3-6 and won the second set 7-6 each time. Won the 3rd set 6-1 and 6-3. Verdasco is 3-0 against Melzer in 2009-2010. The other 3 matches were 2006 and 2005.

tailmypicks · 05-13-10, 03:58 AM

no one taking a chance on isner?

Mike Lonsdale · 05-13-10, 06:13 AM

don't think so. Nadal i just too strong on clay. Also playing home in Spain. He also beat Isnet in Indian Wells this year on hard - Isner's favorite surface.

I like under 20,5

tailmypicks · 05-13-10, 06:23 AM

Watching stosur play. Great serve great forehand. I will bet her on every match now, she can be the money cow untill the clay season ends.

Mike Lonsdale · 05-13-10, 06:35 AM

watched her too. She's playing Venus next, and I will back her on that one.

TomaCro · 05-13-10, 06:56 AM

I will go for Lopez today and Cilic.

I think Lopez could have a chance at home against Gulbis. The spanias has served realy well this week.

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 09:55 AM

Big upset with Verdasco going down as a -500 favorite.

The parlay that I am going to do today is as follows:

Federer,Murray and Monfils +208

Going for the big payout. Best of luck today guys

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 10:01 AM

I'm not really sold on Murray and Monfils just taking the better player in the match and hoping to hit a homerun with the parlay.Would rather lose this way then betting Federer at -250 and losing that.

Nadal match is about to start.Can't see Isner winning this at all

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 10:07 AM

I also took some Nadal outrights today. I was just checking his draw earlier and Nadal faces Isner today and then after that should face MOnfils or Garcia-Lopez and then will probably play either Melzer or Almagro. Nadal should be able to win these two matches fairly easily which would put him right into the finals. I don't think Federer will make the final from the other half of the bracket so basically you have Nadal in the final at -270 which is a great line to let it ride or to hedge if you would like.

Nadal outright -270

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 10:10 AM

Rain on the outside courts

beefcake · 05-13-10, 10:21 AM

Played a murray,fed,ferrer,gulbis,jankovic parlay just to have action,Im sure one will lose and screw me,but Sure beats betting huge favs and sweating balls for 7 hours...

!!

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 10:22 AM

Best of luck Beefcake.The parlay is definately makeable if everything goes as planned.Lets do this

If Monfils warmup is any indication I am in trouble. He is shanking alot of shots you can tell by his facial reaction haha

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 10:30 AM

I took the under in Monfils-GGL, just a gut pick that someone was going to get it done in straights at 22.5. 7-5, 6-4 works for me.

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 10:34 AM

Sounds good Eagles. Let's hope for a quick Monfils win then.Might need to send Monfils a text or something to tell him that he needs to keep the ball in the court to win points

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 10:39 AM

Nice hold there after it looked like he was going to get broken. He needs to start getting some points off GGL's serve now.

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 01:43 PM

Monfils wins. First leg of the parlay has been completed

Murray double breaks to win the first set over Hanescu.Hopefully he keeps this up. Not sure when the Federer match will start.I am guessing its after the Jankovic match.If Murray could somehow win this match before that time I am contemplating possibly hedging out the parlay by betting Wawrinka to guarantee some profit. Could also leave the Federer match and hedge it out in-play as well which is another possibility. Put a bit to much on this parlay for my liking so I am starting to wonder if guaranteeing some money would be better to ease the mind and lessen the risk of losing.Will think about it.First need Murray to win here

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 01:49 PM

Yep. Federer-WaWa is on the main court I believe and that is after Janks. Knew getting that 22.5 was going to bite me on the under for that Monfils match although he should have put GGL away easier than he did.

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 02:04 PM

Do you have any other plays for the day Eagles?

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 02:12 PM

Murray wins.First two down just Federer left now. Jankovic should be done soon

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 02:14 PM

Took Cilic [why] and I have Gulbis trying to cash my parlay.

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 02:17 PM

have been watching some of that Cilic match and Ferrer has looked really good from what I have seen. Hard to beat a player that can get to every ball it seems. Have to hit perfect shots and eventually he gets the opponent to commit the error

EaglesPhan36 · 05-13-10, 02:21 PM

I thought Cilic would stand a chance because Ferrer did not play well yesterday & Cilic has a serve that could work on this faster clay. Not the case apparently.

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 02:22 PM

Still lots of time.Anything can happen

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 02:59 PM

Have left the federer parlay alone as of right now

Stacocakes · 05-13-10, 03:14 PM

So far so good for Federer.I just can't get a grasp on his matches right now. I am not feeling good about this one for some reason. The odds on Wawrinka now are +320 at Betfair. I have hedged off my parlay to guarantee some good profit today. Watch Federer win this in straight sets now

Added play :

Wawrinka +320 to hedge the parlay