Stacocakes Madrid Open thread

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-09-10, 03:27 PM

Yo Staco! My take on the men's draw:

Federer Quarter: Federer won't make the quarters IF Wawrinka continues to play well and makes it that far. Roddick is on the bottom half of this quarter and I don't expect him to get out of here either. I think that Gulbis is someone to watch in this quarter. He has a tough draw with Montanes in the 1st and potentially Youzhny in the 2nd, but if he continues to play well - he could make it to the quarters in the bottom of the bracket. Youzhny will probably be over priced based on winning Munich - he's still not a great clay court guy, but he always plays well at Munich. Don't over value him is my suggestion. I like Wawrinka or Gulbis to get to the semis here.

Murray Quarter: Murray has a brutal draw. If he gets by Cuevas or Chela, he faces likely Hanescu, Andreev or Querrey in the next round. With his form, no point in backing him - especially with Ferrer in the bottom of the quarter. Ferrer only has to contend with Cilic to get to the quarters and he can beat him on clay any day. Ferrer is my pick for this quarter without much question. He is simply the best clay court guy in this quarter.

Nadal Quarter: Really nothing to trouble Nadal in this bracket. Tsonga, Isner and Monfils - but none of them are in Nadal's class on dirt. Watching Monfils here to see where he's at. The withdraw from last week with a "stomach ailment" is still questionable to me. He might not have been fit enough to compete last week. He needs to show something before the French, but I don't know if he will.

Soderling Quarter: Easily the most competitive quarter with Soderling, Verdasco, Berdych, Bellucci, Nalbandian, Monaco and more here. Soderling is going to have a tough time getting through here. He'll have Almagro or Troicki, then Monaco or Bellucci and then someone like Verdasco potentially in the quarters. Verdasco's draw is not quite as tough with Karlovic first. Then Nalbandian or Berdych likely. I'd take Verdasco before I took Soderling in this quarter, but this one could produce a surprise semifinalist I think. If not, I'd say Verdasco.

I'm not sure taking any futures make sense in this one with Nadal here honestly. I see Nadal at -315 right now. Maybe Ferrer at +1400 because I think he's the most likely finalist from that half of the draw, but still if he plays Nadal - he's gonna get smoked .

**Stacocakes** · 05-09-10, 07:00 PM

Great analysis as always Eagles.

Federer Quarter

I definately agree that Warinka will give Federer a run for his money if they do meet. With Federer's current form I really don't know what to expect these days from one match to the next. If wawrinka is a decent price in this match I will definately consider taking him to defeat Federer. The winner of that match will probably face either Youzhny or Roddick in the quarterfinals. I don't see Roddick getting far in this tournament at all. He hasn't even played a clay court event yet this year so look for him to bow out early in this tournament. Youzhny playing well at this point definately has a chance to beat Federer or Wawrinka to make it to the semifinals but I wouldn't put my whole bank on that or anything.

Murray quarter

Definately love Ferrer on clay as always. He should beat able to beat Baghdatis in the next round and that will set up a match with most likely Cilic which should go to Ferrer since Cilic isn't the greatest on clay, though he has been playing rather well this past week. Murray is in trouble here I agree. THe draw doesn't list Chela on it but if he is going to have to face Chela in his first match I could see him going out right off the bat. If he does manage to get past him he should be able to beat QUerrey or Andreev but will then probably lose to Ferrer in the quarterfinals, though I don't think he get's that far anyways. Agree Ferrer is the play in this quarter

Nadal quarter

Nadal is probably going to win this tournament but I am going to pass on him as an outright since his odds are to big. He's going to have to defeat Seppi, Isner and then either Tsonga or monfils to get out of his quarter. Monfils has not been at 100% lately and really is never close to winning anything meaningfull so you can scratch him off the list. Tsonga has played well recently on clay though he is no match for Nadal. Nadal wins this quarter of the draw.

Soderling quarter

Love the opening round match of Berdych/Nalbandian in this quarter. The winner of that will be facing Verdasco who has been on fire lately. I think Verdasco's run comes to an end in early in this tournament though with him losing to either Berdych,Nalbandian or Soderling. Almagro will give Soderling some trouble in the second round but Soderling should be able to win the match. He would then face either Bellucci or Monaco and he should be able to beat both of them as well. Could see a possible Berdych/Soderling match to dictate the winner of this quarter and that's a coin flip to me. The thing is though whoever wins this won't beat Nadal anyways so I guess in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter who wins this quarter.

Nadal is the play here if you want to bet an outright. Currently he is at -270 and though he will probably win it's not really worth it to play that high of a number. I don't trust Federer at this point but the +860 odds on him are really hard to dismiss. The thing is though I can just see so many points in this tournament where Federer could potentially lose so I am just going to pass on him altogether.

So no men's outrights for this tournament for me but I am going to check out the ladies draw and post again later tonight if I see anything I like. Will also post some plays for the matches that are tomorrow morning. I have sen some good ones especially Berdych as a dog over Nalbandian.Looks good to me. Talk to you guys in a bit

**beefcake** · 05-09-10, 07:19 PM

Hmmm, with gulbis playing so well this year and having taken a set of nadal earlier in the month..70-1 looks sweet.easier draw like you said for him.Hes not going to win,but in buying back its such a huge future it might be profitable hedging later on.And wawrinka at 150-1

,if he gets to the semis eagles,vs anybody as long as you put a decent bit out there,could still hedge even vs a HUGE fav..
Dam tennis is so much dam fun,I think Ive found my new fave sport to bet on and make some$$

**JNic** · 05-09-10, 07:45 PM

i already put some on the wawrinka 150-1, great little bet right there

**Stacocakes** · 05-09-10, 10:17 PM

I didn't see to much that I liked for tomorrow. I like the Nalbandian/Berdych match though in a couple days so will probably bet on that. Until then I made a little parlay to have some fun with tomorrow:

Parlay Wozniacki and Azarenka -103

Good payout on this parlay. Both should win fairly easily.

Love the odds you guys got on Wawrinka 150-1

If that was available for me I would maybe take a chance on that. 99-1 on betfair currently for me. I will pass. Gulbis on the other hand I can't see him making another run like he did a couple weeks ago. He has a tough first round match vs Montanes but the advantage is that Montanes just played today so Gulbis will be the better rested of the two. If he gets by Montanes he will have to face Youzhny and then possibly Roddick and Federer/Wawrinka. Ya I can't see him making a deep run here.

Best of luck to you guys tomorrow.Just that one parlay for me to get my feet wet

**Shifty107** · 05-09-10, 10:44 PM

Hey Staco, didnt Wozniaki just come back from an injury? Last I saw she wasnt playing well. Or am I mistaken? Can someone clarify this please.

**sportscash** · 05-09-10, 11:13 PM

Good luck

**Stacocakes** · 05-09-10, 11:55 PM

Sportscash thanks. Best of luck to you as well

Hey Shifty

Wozniacki had an ankle injury on April 29th and that was the reason for her loss to Safarova that day. Since then she has played two matches, winning one fairly easily and losing the other match. I am thinking that if her injury was serious she probably would have taken some time off after the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix loss but she hasn't so who knows. Possible injury concerns might be something we should have in the back of our mind for Caroline's matches as she progresses in this tournament but for tomorrow's match it looks as though she will be fine to me.

I checked some other forums to see if I could find anything about a Wozniacki injury and I didn't see anything. I think we will be ok with this one. Would I take her as a straight bet at odds of -297, definately not.Worth the risk to put her in this parlay though

Best of luck tomorrow guys

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:46 AM

The line for Azarenka is dropping like crazy. Very very scared right now about this. When I made the parlay a couple hours ago Azarenaka was around -200 and now she is at -128. I guess I deserve that since Azarenka has had some very suspect matches in the recent past and because of that I probably should not have included her in the parlay. I guess we will just see what happens. Hopefully it works out. Not feeling the greatest though

**Shifty107** · 05-10-10, 01:49 AM

Thanks mate.

All the best to us. I looked as well and ended up putting her in the parlay with Almagro over Troiki as well as Stosur. Thanks for getting back to me.

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:55 AM

Like the play Shifty. Almagro is always a good play on clay and Stosur has been playing very well. I like your chances. Best of luck tomorrow

**emeka** · 05-10-10, 02:32 AM

whats happened to Azarenka? i dont understand this line movement

**Marginalis** · 05-10-10, 02:51 AM

Good luck today.

**raydog** · 05-10-10, 05:52 AM

thread better produce some winners cakes...me and fish have already been in contact with the venditto mob family if you chuck us

**Mr.Kitty** · 05-10-10, 05:59 AM

Azarenka retired, anyone know why?

**beefcake** · 05-10-10, 06:54 AM

Thats like 3-4 shifty matches in a row for azarenka..something is up with her..alot of folks bet peng in the hopes that aza would retire after the first set..but no dice...

**obie** · 05-10-10, 07:37 AM

Melzer crusing in his game, I dont think that Anderson plays bad, so betting on OVER 6,5 parties to Anderson would be a good bet.

**obie** · 05-10-10, 07:58 AM

Anderson breaks in second set !

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 10:17 AM

Another retirement from Azarenka. Thankfully it was during the first set and not after the first set. I am going to stay away from her from now on.

No other upsets as of yet today

**BernardMadoff** · 05-10-10, 10:24 AM

Wonder why Venus' juice isnt that much Stac? H2H 7-1.

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 10:46 AM

Wow Azarenka starts at 1.3 for that match and then is slowly bet throughout the night all the way to 2.16 before the match. ( Thats -333 approximately to +116). And this is happening for almost all of Azarenka's matches these days. If anyone took that parlay the Azarenka play should be voided by your book and the remaining Wozniacki play should be handled as if it was a straight bet on Wozniacki.

Bernard that is a very good price on Venus. I am seeing -162 right now on Betfair. I see 8-1 h2h with Venus winning the last 8 matches in a row. I will play devils advocate here and tell you why that is the price. Clay is Venus's worst surface. She had better results on clay earlier in her career and over the past few years has been kinda hit or miss. Another thing that doesn't help is why or I should say how in the hell did she get beat by Jankovic 6-0 6-1. That's definately not a good way to come into this tournament. Zvonareva on the other hand, former top 10 player that is decent on clay. Will definately put up a good fight in this match. If I had to choose a winner I would take Venus since she is the better player but the odds are probably pretty accurate for this match. If it was on a different surface Venus would be more of a favorite.

A look ahead to tomorrow, here are a couple matches I am looking at.No bets as of yet just some good numbers that I have seen.Let me know if you guys like any of them:

Chela -144 over Cuevas

Montanes +174 over Gulbis

Berdych +111 over Nalbandian

I know that many of you like Gulbis but that price for Montanes is really good. Montanes has played alot of tennis lately, including winning the tournament this past sunday. Might be a factor but still I think the line is really good for him here.

**BernardMadoff** · 05-10-10, 11:04 AM

I watched that Jankovic match, the court seemed wet I think and Venus just couldnt really move on it, but almost getting bageled in straight sets speaks volumes, she didnt give much effort.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 11:09 AM

I don't want any part of Nalbandian-Berdych save for maybe the O/U - but Nalbandian is tough to gauge at this point. What did he do for the last month? Eat? Train? Power train at a buffet? Berdych's loss to Petzschner was puzzling too. Think you're right in taking the plus money for sure as I'd rather win-lose on that side. No opinion on Montanes-Gulbis. You can make cases on both sides there I think. I'm not real confident in Chela. Since his run in Houston, he's been pretty tame on clay and has lost in the 1st round in 2 straight main draws. I think I'd actually go Cuevas and the plus money personally. Haven't studied a ton yet, but Isner & Wawrinka in a parlay looked like it might be good for tomorrow.

**beefcake** · 05-10-10, 11:27 AM

Wonder if It might be worth fading isner and querrey now,they both might be a little gassed,you never know in these tourneys,both playing qualies they might bite them in the arse..

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 11:34 AM

Both of the big boys had a pretty light schedule in the Spring. They both played two tournaments in April and this is their 2nd in May. With their serves, that can probably carry them through a round even if they're off - especially Isner IMO.

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:31 PM

Just back in now.Good to see Wozniacki has won the first set and is up a break in the second set. At least she is doing well.

Pretty surprised that Kohlschreiber lost today in three sets

Isner and Querrey both look good for tomorrow. Parlaying one or both of them with another player might be the best play there. Isner/Wawrinka parlay does look like a good play for tomorrow Eagles. I think you are right with the Berdych/Nalbandian match being a toss up.Probably best to stay away from that match all together

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:33 PM

Wozniacki is up 4-0 in the second set. Match should be done soon. The payout on this match since Azarenka screwed up the parlay is going to be so small.Oh well

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:33 PM

Moya already broken his first two service games by Becker. Surprising there since Becker is bad on clay. Think it might be time for Moya to hang em up

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:36 PM

Venus's price continues to drop. The price is now at -154. If this downward trend continues I may take a shot on her tomorrow

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:39 PM

Hmm nevermind Venus is playing today in about 20 minutes. Her price is low so I am going to take a shot with her. Love the head to head of 8-1 Venus in this matchup.

Added play:

Venus Williams -154

Best of luck today guys

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:44 PM

BP Kvitova

Wozniacki is choking away this match.She has already blown one of the breaks this set

**beefcake** · 05-10-10, 01:45 PM

Great eye staco on that price..VALUE>>>

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:45 PM

Another BP

**Stacocakes** · 05-10-10, 01:47 PM

Thanks Beefcake. Are you taking Venus as well?

The Madrid website for this tournament is probably one of the worst that I have ever seen.I can't even find the OOP on the site