Please convince me not to bet on Baggy tommorrow..

**Kav** · 04-25-10, 11:39 PM

"Or is this a perfect example of too good to be true and the books know more than me....Most obvious reason.."

this comes in to play, i think you should lay off dude...

**xXxBallin21xXx** · 04-26-10, 12:34 AM

Im guessing all those defeats were all hard and 1 grass, and Gulbis has more experience in clay than Bagh so line is showing Gulbis as Fav. No play for me here, but gl with your decision.

**griffdog** · 04-26-10, 01:02 AM

Smallish play for me. Like the value on Baggy here. Cuevas vs. Kohlschreiber is one worth looking at as well.

**lcf** · 04-26-10, 01:28 AM

Gulbis lost 6-2 7-2 to Verdasco but...

But in many ways, Gulbis was the dominant player on the night, except for one telling factor. While Verdasco was able to save an unprecedented 8 from 9 break points, Gulbis in the mean time slumped to 0 from 3.

**yisman** · 04-26-10, 01:41 AM

it's good value. Take it.

Don't overthink with whether it's a trap. You can drive yourself crazy. You are not going to out-think the books.

The bottom line is that Gulbis shouldn't be that big a favorite, and Baghdatis wins this match more than 38% of the time.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-26-10, 07:29 AM

Good luck. Avoided this one myself. Baghdatis stinks on clay, Gulbis has shown glimpses that he can do well on this surface when focused and not playing someone with superior clay skills. At least if you got it at +160, you got a deal as it's back down to about +130. I think the head-2-head means very little when you're talking about a surface they've never met on.

**Boner_18** · 04-26-10, 07:34 AM

Yisman is right. If you like it play it. Sure there might exist traps, reverse traps and triple-double-backwards traps but if you can get a good line and capture some "value" in the quite literal sense that you win more than the implied win dictates long term it's worth it.

**michalis** · 04-26-10, 08:36 AM

bagdatis screwed the pooch