[gregm]

YTD 43-35 +9.46

I am going to keep all my tennis picks in here. I have been dabbling here and there in some of these tourneys like Pattaya and Montpellier this month and late January and I have had a pretty mediocre start to the month, but I am trying to get ready for more wagering for Dubai, Miami and Indian Wells. I have done pretty well this time of the year on some of these tourneys from my past numbers on the spreadsheets, so I am going to try and start wagering more. These write-ups are going to be short, tired and going to bed.

Federer future- Rotterdam +110 - risk 3 Feds numbers on indoor hard courts are just phenomenal throughout his career, last year he won every indoor hard tourney he entered and hasn't lost an indoor hard tourney since Paris in November 2010 to Monfils. He is coming off a rather surprising loss to Isner on clay but I just don't see how you can't take Federer to win here looking at his numbers on this surface.

Berdych is coming off a great win at Sud de France and I can see why alot of good punters are on him to win this, but he doesnt have good numbers here. 4-6 overall here in Rotterdam and he is just coming off a tough tourney finals to Monfils and a 4 setter with Bolelli. Maybe some fatigue here. Del Potro is another name you see tossed around to win this here but he has very rough draw and I just am not a believer yet on his return.

Federers numbers are just too dominant on indoor hard to not to take this number. His draw is a tough one , but I just don't see him not taking this 500 series tourney and getting his first tournament victory of the year.

Almagro Futures Brasil Open +315 risk 1

Paszek +3.5 -105 risk 1.05

Peer/Kuznetsova/Barthel -184 risk 1.84

[timhenman]

Paszek was good bet..... Thanks...Following you...

[gregm]

YTD 45-35 +11.46
Yesterday 2-0 +2.0 units

Thanks Tim. I will try and get some longer write ups in when I get my hours straight here, I have been up late looking at matches and lines and I am too tired to write much.

Gallovits-Hall -150 risk 3.0 ( this line has been steadily rising and surprisingly bookmaker has a better line than pinnacle, BetOnline and most of my books) I hate betting against these young Americans but American tennis is in such sad shape you almost have to. I watch a ton of tennis and attend some tourneys during the year and I have seen Cohen play and it has been pretty disappointing especially after all I had heard about her. I had a chance to see her last year at Charlottesville and in Raleigh and she was pretty disappointing to say the least.

She is still only 22 and I hope the USTA can get American tennis going again but I am going to have to go against her here. I really don't understand these odds, her numbers and Gallovits-Hall just seem so different, these odds are a little strange but the line has been steadily rising. Hall has some good numbers on this surface and on a totally different level than Cohen is at this stage in her career. I don't see Cohen having much of a chance here.

Kerber +3 -124 risk 1.24

Cirstea -216 risk 1.08

Seppi -230 risk 1.15

Benesova -260 risk 1.3

Goerges /Razzano /Kohlschreiber -102 risk 2.04

[gregm]

Cetkovska -206 risk 2.06

[gregm]

I was just talking with a friend tonight about Cohen match and wondering about the odds. He did point out Hall's lack on match play since September from last year as alot of the reason for this small number on Hall. Keep that in mind before wagering on this.

[gregm]

On the wrong side of the line move with Hall, lets see how this turns out. In most sports it doesnt bode well, tennis is a rather odd market with some of these drifts at times. Maybe the lack of matches for Hall since last year.

[gregm]

Young -140 risk 1.4

52-35 + 18.96
7-0 + 7.5 units today

Going to take a punt on young tonight, I want to watch some more of Young play tonight. He can be a moneymaker if you choose your spots right but he is notoriously unreliable. First row should have this one streaming, albeit, in crappy quality. The Tennis Channel has the 2005 Wimbledon womens finals scheduled for primetime. Why not just rent out the air time to infomercials , God forbid an American channel should show an American tennis tourney, that is being held in the same state as the tennis channel.

The SAP may be a 250 but its the second oldest tennis tournament in the United States, it has been around longer than the French or the Australian and played at the HP Pavilion right in the heart of Silicon Valley. This is the perfect example of why tennis is really on the decline in the US, this is really a fun tourney to watch.

[GoingGrey]

Thanks for the picks today...keep up the good work!

[GoingGrey]

You can watch the Young match on Bet365 if you have an acc. with them.

[gregm]

Thanks Grey. People complain about low limits from some of these euro books but I am always very impressed by alot of the professionalism and the things they offer. The software and interface at alot of the Euro books are just phenomenal, I love the bet365 video. I have to use the vpn though to get in there.

I tried to get research in here early tonight, I am leaving early in the morning and need to go to bed. No time for any sort of long write ups.

Federer/Baghdatis/Goerges -119 risk 3.57

Cetkovska +5 +104 risk 1 Ivanovic laying 5 games? Even if this loses I will take this all day long until I see some steady play from her. Petra has some great numbers on this surface and if she won this match it would not surprise me in the least.

Cirstea +3.5 -110 risk 1.10 Has Stosur miraculously come into form since the tournament she should have been a contender in ,the Aussie? Cirstea beat her at the Australian Open a month ago and now we are getting 3.5 games? A few Davis cup wins by Sam are going to change my opinions on Stosurs form or her outlook for the 2012 season.

Sela -124 risk 1.24

Wickmayer -200 risk 2.00

Petzschner -212 risk 2.12

[sharlataans]

Good picks IMO. Especially Cetkovska +5

[gregm]

YTD 55-39 +13.67
Today 3-4 -5.29 units

Rough day today. Goerges killed me, she was one of my dark horses for the WTA tour this year but her service game is just atrocious. 6 double faults today, 35% on her second serve. Second tourney in a row I have been burned by her, Lepchenko played great but Goerges has had some really bad losses to people like Zakopalova and an atrocious showing against Radwanska at the Aussie.

She may be staying around 20-30 in the rankings if this continues, a couple of nice tourneys coming up but I have lost all confidence in wagering on her after today. WTA service games are notoriously flaky but this is a Tier 1 event, she shouldn't be dropping matches like this and that Zakopalova match.

Niculescu -127 risk 3.81

Cetkovska +4 +105 risk 1

Huta Galung +4 -129 risk 1.29

Kamke +4 -125 risk 1.25

[gregm]

YTD 56-41 +14.42

Yesterday 1-2 +.75

Federer/Radwanska/Benneteau -118 risk 1.18

Benneteau has looked sharp against Muller and had a tough win over Sweeting so far here in San Jose. I saw some posts on tennis insight talking about the great numbers Benneteau has on this surface at this price, but Darcis actually has better overall numbers on this surface. But if you look at the numbers a little more closely they havent really come against top flight opponents.

Darcis is coming off a good indoor hard tourney getting to the finals at Dallas but again you have to look at the opponents. The win Darcis had over Stepanek was a two set tiebreaker but its still an impressive win and I think this match may be alot closer than it looks so I am going to parlay this Benneteau pick and get these numbers down. Benneteau has had some pretty impressive scalps on indoor hard, beating Fed in 2009 and Tsonga and Monfils in 2010 .

He has looked pretty average on this surface since then and having the tips 35-0 for Benneteau on tennis insight is never a good sign for a wager.

Added Federer/Radwanska/Nalbandian -195 risk 1.95

[gregm]

YTD 57-42 +13.47

Yesterday 1-1 -.95

Harrison +3.5 -121 risk 1.21

[gregm]

I still have two future wagers open ( in my first post in this thread) and I am going to to ride them out. I feel really good about the Almagro wager but Fed looked awful today and Del Potro looked unstoppable. I don't feel too bad having money on a guy like Federer who has won every indoor hard tourney he has competed in but one since late 2009. I have seen Fed have days like this so many times where he has tons of UE's and backhands all over the place and come back the next match and play flawless.

This match is certainly not shaping up well though, Fed has not looked good at all and Del Potro looked incredible today. I know Federer wants that first tourney victory of the year, and a wager on Roger on numbers and stats alone certainly favors Federer, but watching these guys this week has certainly not made me too confident in this futures bet.

I would normally take a prop here but not much out there, Azarenka should dominate here so going to take a punt on the sets bet.

Federer Futures- Rotterdam +110 - risk 3

Almagro Futures Brasil Open +315 risk 1


Azarenka -1.5 sets +105 risk 1

[gregm]

Raonic -1.5 sets +102 risk 2

The second oldest tennis tourney in the US, older than the Aussie and the French, and not an American in sight. Well done gentleman. Next time the USTA comes out with another statement on the state of American tennis, after producing Connors, Budge, Tilden, Courier, McEnroe, Agassi, Sampras, Evert, Billie Jean King, Davenport, Navratilova and the Williams sisters, have a look at tennis in America today. LOL. At least we have some of the best academies in the world like Bollettieris academy and will still attract the Sharapovas and Azarenkas, etc. to come here and train, but come Davis cup time or the Olympics, America is in sad shape.

I just talked to my friend this morning who is a tennis coach and he is out in San Jose and said he has been watching Raonic serve this week and he said it is incredible to watch. Milos seems to be hitting around 145-150 at times and this court is perfect for this type of game. I am really glad to see him back from his injury and this will be a great 250 to add to his resume this year if he can win this.

I saw a stat this morning that he has only dropped two service games in 2 years at this tourney and it looks like he is going to win the SAP again this year. It is great to see him back, maybe that Hewitt loss at the Aussie was just a blip, he seems to be firing on all cylinders with that serve.

[gregm]

YTD 61-43 +21.80

I am not really liking much in terms of futures out there right now,going to put something small on Isner. Raonics numbers on serve are just phenomenal and I really think he wins this. That should be one of the most boring matchups when Isner and Raonic meet and no total can be too high, but Raonic is starting to really get some skills on rallies. He really steps up his game when he needs to. I like Ferrer or Monaco to win Buenos Aires, Ferrer has absolutely dominated Almagro on this surface and h2h, Ferrer/Monaco has gone back and forth between the two. Ferrer consistently is one of my favorite and most lucrative players to wager on, I think he gets it done here.

What can you say about Azarenka, total dominance this year. Kvitovas numbers are really not that great on this surface but she is definitely one to look at. I would have to go with Aza to win Dubai until Azarenka shows some sign of weakness or fatigue. She looks incredible out there.

Memphis- Isner futures + 500 risk 1

Raonic futures +250 risk 2

Marseille-Tsonga futures + 275 risk 1

Kuznetsova -3.5 -101 risk 1.01 Goerges had been killing me from an ROI standpoint, her service game has just collapsed. 6 double faults and 35% on her second serve against Lepchenko and the Zakopalova meltdown in Paris . Goerges numbers on on this surface are not that impressive as well,and Kuzzy made it to the finals here last year. I wish this number was shorter and I would take the moneyline here but Kuznetsova didn't look sharp against Safarova. As much of a punt against Goerges and her service game as anything.

Niculescu -1.5 -101 risk 1.01

Cetkovska +4 -120 risk 2.40 Added another unit on Cetkovska. What has Jelena done since Cincinnati in August of 2011 to deserve giving 4 games as a handicap to a player like Cetkovska, that has much better numbers on this surface then she has for the last year? If Jankovic can lose to Peer at Doha and Petra can beat Ivanovic at Doha, I will take this number all day.

Cetkovska is showing good numbers and an upset here would not surprise me in the least, look at your book and retirement rules on this one, http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/tennis-bet...ent-stats.html . Jelena may have some injury concerns. Even if this loses, I will take 4 games with Jankovic and Cetkovska any day of the week the way Jelena has played for over a year.

[Spanks]

[gregm]

Goerges is winning 25% of her second serves. Its almost like she is just pushing the ball over the net. Kuzentesova is just faltering here.

Adding Ferrer futures Buenos Aires +140 risk 1

Montanes -3.5 -123 risk 1.23

[Pew Pew]

i tailed you with kuz. i will never bet this russian ever again. twice she has choked when willing the first set dominatedly

[gregm]

Sorry pew, Goerges showed alot better numbers on her first serve but Kuznetsova just gave up in the third. The trainer was out there looking at her wrist, comical. Kuznetsova is such a frustrating player to wager on, she was up a break in the second after dominating the first and mentally just lost it.

I don't see much at memphis I like tonight. Just fading Tomic here, Dodig is a competitor and while the play of these courts certainly will favor servers like Tomic, Isner, and Raonic, I think Dodig can keep this close. Dodigs numbers are atrocious for about a year, but much better on indoor hard over the years. Tomic has never posted any decent numbers on this surface but Dodigs poor play at Davis cup and this year bothers me on this one.

Dodig +3.5 -101 risk 1.01

[gregm]

YTD 62-46 +18.42

Yesterday 1-3 -3.42

Poor showing yesterday. I have always been very good about keeping records of my bets and its pretty easy to analyze which tournaments I do well in and which ones to avoid. My next big project is to try and figure out which prices I do well at in certain tournaments, and some idea of the favorites numbers and dogs numbers in these tourneys and start looking at totals and players. The worst mistake I think anyone can make is to be an action junkie and just wager to wager, some of these tourneys are just so hard to figure out with motivation.

In the ATP you have two masters coming up in March, Indian Wells is just a few weeks away and with these 250s and this 500 in Memphis, trying to figure out who comes to play is tough.

I have shown pretty decent ROI numbers at this Premier event in Dubai in the WTA in the past but today was another reason I should probably avoid just wagering for action. I will give it another try today, there isn't much happening at all in the WTA until Indian Wells which is a Premier mandatory event and Indian Wells is one of the highest attended events in tennis outside of the four slams. I should just be studying totals and stats numbers but once again I am being an action junkie.

So much of WTA is mental, Kuznetsova dominates the first set and is up a break in the second and then she falters in one game and just falls apart. Cetkovska double faults 3 times in a row and drops six games in a row and just folds like a tent. Going to try my luck again in Dubai and these atp events again though, I think Radwanska, Harrison and Gasquet seem pretty solid to build some parlays with, but I may end up regretting it.

Hantuchova has always done pretty well here at Dubai except for last year, she usually makes it to the round of 16 or the Quarters and her numbers on this surface are much better than Hercogs.

This Gasquet line is much better at 5dimes than at pinnacle, -970 at 5 dimes and -1075 at Pinnacle. A few other lines like the olivetti line are like that tonight, pretty rare to find these US facing offshores with better numbers than the euro books.

Radwanska/Gasquet/Harrison -152 risk 1.52

Radwanska/Gasquet/Isner/Harrison -101 risk 1.01

Radwanska/Gasquet/Harrison/Hantuchova -112 risk 1.12

Schiavone +4 +108 risk 1

Safarova/Martic o20.5 games -116 risk 1.16

Benesova -125 risk 1.25

Olivetti +3.5 -140 risk 1.4

[greenhippo]

Any thoughts on Verdasco and Simon in a few hours? Both heavy favorites.

[gregm]

Green, from the stats you would have to say these players should win handily but this tournament is a small clay 250. The lines they set on both of these matches are awful. Verdasco and Simon with a 4.5 game handicap in best of 3, in a small tourney like this? Verdasco is -4.5 -120 to a player he has a 0-2 h2h record with? I just don't like wagering on these large handicaps in these tourneys too much unless I have seen that this player is in this tourney to win it or at least has shown some numbers in the past at the tourney.

Why isn't Simon in Marseille? Verdasco has only been here once and lost to Gasquet in his first match, Simon has never been here before. They both probably get it done but -4.5 is a little much. I just dont want to sweat the handicap and I think there are better players out ther to parlay with, Verdasco is like a dead man walking out there at times.

[greenhippo]

I see, thanks for the info.

[gregm]

YTD 67-47 + 22.42

Yesterday 5-1 +4.0 units

I think the strongest plays on the board for any parlays would be Azarenka,Tsonga, Radwanska, Woz, Tipsarevic, and Llodra. Wozniacki is actually a little worrisome but she is defending champion here, I am always worried wagering on Woz with her defensive game and her lack of strength but Halep has the style of play that shouldnt bother her too much. Tipsarevic plays a Belgian ranked 164 whose numbers on this surface leave alot to be desired.

Llodra won Marseille in 2010, made it to the finals in 2009 and lost to Soderling last year in the quarterfinals. Llodra didnt have great numbers for the last year on this surface but he was losing to guys like Soderling and top tier type opponents for the most part, like Del Potro just recently in Rotterdam, but he did take Del Potro to 3 sets. Chiudinellis numbers were really not that great on this surface for the year when you look at his weaker opposition.

I watch a ton of tennis when I am not looking at the stock market and I hate just betting on watching a match today but I was really impressed with Jankovic today, I am just hoping she can make a good match of it with Pennetta. Flavia looked awful at the Aussie but she did make to the finals at Auckland and is a fierce competitor. Very risky bet because Jankovic hasnt looked good since Cincinnati last year but I am going to take a punt on the total based on on her strong performance today, those h2h numbers are from a while back.

Llodra//Radwanska/Wozniacki +139 risk 1

Llodra/Radwanska/Tipsarevic +111 risk 1

Llodra/Tipsarevic/Ivanovic/Azarenka +199 risk 1

Llodra -3.5 -124 risk 1.24

Vasselin -2.5 -129 risk 1.29

Pennetta/Jankovic O21 -106 risk 1.06

[Nikigreat]

I was really impressed with Jankovic today, I am just hoping she can make a good match of it with Pennetta. Flavia looked awful at the Aussie but she did make to the finals at Auckland and is a fierce competitor. Very risky bet because Jankovic hasnt looked good since Cincinnati last year but I am going to take a punt on the total based on on her strong performance today, those h2h numbers are from a while back.

Would like to remember that Flavia came at AO with a injury to her back that obliged her to retire in Auckland final, that's why she played so bad at Melbourne. She said now she's okay and has to defend last year Semifinal, will be a close match and I'm gonna pass this, but good luck with Jelena and with the over that I consider the right play for this match.

[gregm]

YTD 71-49 +25.35

Today 4-2 +2.93 (adjusted parlay for Azarenka withdrawal)

Roddick/ Raonic -141 risk 1.41

I didnt really want to touch either one of these matches but I had a good day. Raonic and Roddick played in last years final and if Roddick were in decent shape, his numbers here and his style of play would make him an easy favorite to win this.

I am still wondering about Raonic's knee and his ability to get down for shots which at his height is never easy. His serve has been so incredible at lately and this court is one of the highest rated courts for strong servers, overall the stats at memphis for most strong servers are pretty phenomenal. Raonic also has some points to defend here from last years final, I just think he looks too good on serve for anyone right now, it is like Isner, he can just wait until tiebreaks and dominate. He has also developed a good ground game and has looked strong on alot of rallies, you never know which type Gulbis is going to show up but if Raonic is 100% he should win this.

Roddick has totally dominated this tourney, he is the defending champion here and has won the title three times since 2007 , lost to Soderling in the quarters in 2008 and Querrey in the quarters in 2010. His style of play is perfect for this court, lots of slices and his always dominant serve seems made for this court. He is the defending champion here and needs to defend these points. Malisse was just crushed by Ginepri in San Jose (6-1,6-2), is 2-10 in his last 12 matches and 21-29 in his last 50 matches. That Ginepri match was the perfect example of a guy who just doesnt care about singles match play anymore. I will bet against Malisse anytime I can but having a guy like Roddick who has been so dominant here makes it alot easier.

Neither of these matches are even on live streaming it seems.

[Zenyatta 19-1]

Would like to say thank you for my 6 team parlay I hit risking 500

[gregm]

YTD 71-50 + 23.94

You are welcome Zenyatta and great handle by the way. I started off gambling in horses and I am slowly getting back into it but its so tough to grind out a profit in horses. I actually love parlays in tennis, I keep track of my wagers (straights, parlays, prices,etc) and parlays have shown better roi numbers, over the past 3 years at least, than alot of my straight wagers. I just have to figure out which price I want to stay in with these parlays, I have to really be careful with these ones that get in that 140-190 range on my sheets. Very tough to stay profitable long term in that range. I have a -158 parlay tomorrow and I am not too happy about it, tough card.

Sorry if anyone looked at Roddick because of my post. What is wrong with this guy when he cant even beat Malisse at a tournament he has absolutely dominated over the years. Maybe he should have gone to rehab and stayed out of this tourney. Thats it for me and wagering on Roddick, when you can't beat Malisse, there are some serious issues.

I am too tired to research any more matches tonight, I am going to go with the ones I looked at earlier. I really don't like this card at all tomorrow.

Davydenko +3.5 -114 risk 1.14

Jankovic +135 risk 1

Nalbandian/Monaco 022.5 +101 risk 1

Parlay Isner/Almagro -158 risk 3.16

[EaglesPhan36]

Roddick is too banged up at this point. He'd barely recovered from the groin problem in Melbourne and then rolled his ankle last week. He's definitely not 100%. And I think even more than that, mentally you really have to question where he is right now. He obviously still enjoys competing, but I think these injuries he keeps picking up are really starting to mess with his head. Honestly after the hard court swing finishes in Miami, I think he should take off until the grass court season. I don't even see the point of him playing clay court tennis and it would give him a couple months to get healthy and right in the brain.

[gregm]

I gave alot of thought to Llodra but he just looked so mediocre today against Chiudinelli on his return game and on these rallies, I decided against adding it to my card. Seeing you on Llodra makes me want to take a punt on it Eagles. One thing I got from watching him today is that he wants to do well here, and in these 250s motivation and his numbers here at this tourney in France are huge. Seems like its worth a punt. I thought about the over too but just taking the side here.

Llodra -123 risk 1.23

[gregm]

Querrey/Anderson o23 -114 risk 2.28

In the 5 matches Querrey and Anderson have completed, one match anderson retired in the second set at Rome, 4 have been three setters and went over the total. One match was 2 sets and went 21 games and that was on grass.

Memphis is one of the best tourneys on the tour for serving stats from strong servers like Querrey and Anderson and I dont expect to see many break points. Combine this court and two guys with massive serves, I am taking a punt on the over. I just hope Querrey looks better than he did in San jose and Dallas but those losses were 3 setters as well and he lost in 4 sets to Tomic at the Aussie.

Querrey does have a 5-1 h2h against Anderson but I think the safer bet is the over until Querrey finds somne form in 2012.

[gregm]

YTD 74-53 +27.29

Yesterday 3-1 + 3.35

I don't see much I like tomorrow, and not going to look at any matches anymore tonight. I still have some outstanding futures wagers open and I usually like to go with props and totals around this time but these 250s and 500s are hard to figure out motivation and totals. Numbers dont always tell the story on these totals . Very disappointed with the push on Anderson/Querrey total, one of my favorite overs in a while , at least until Raonic and Isner play.

Tsonga/Ferrer/Llodra/Wozniacki +143 risk 2

Tsonga/Ferrer/Llodra/Ungur +161 risk 2

Dushevina -120 risk 2.40

[ravitri2k]

Nice writeups Greg! Thanks!