US Open thoughts

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  • w@lt
    SBR MVP
    • 10-08-10
    • 2594

    #1
    US Open thoughts
    I have my eyes on a couple of early round matches so far. Plays will be pretty dependent on odds.

    Mardy Fish vs. Marco Cecchinato.
    Who?? Cecchinato: clay guy who just lost 6-1 6-1 to Benoit Paire in Cincy. Mardy's play has been surprisingly good given his long layoff, beating Troicki, and giving Murray all he could handle. No doubt the motivation should be there, as this is his swan song. I'm hoping that he is under-valued due to lack of play, maybe around -200?

    Genie Bouchard vs Alison Riske
    I know, I know, "WTF, GENIE BOUCHARD??", you say, but hear me out: she holds a 2-0 WTA record against Riske (one win coming a couple of months ago), and Riske hasn't really been great herself. Additionally, it appears that Genie started working with Jimmy Connors, so hopefully something new will help her game. Based on Genie's woes, I'm hoping she will be around -150, which I will gladly take in this situation.

    Last edited by w@lt; 08-28-15, 08:15 AM.
  • w@lt
    SBR MVP
    • 10-08-10
    • 2594

    #2
    As I posted this, 5Dimes put up men's odds. Fish -370. Parlay material for me.
    Comment
    • w@lt
      SBR MVP
      • 10-08-10
      • 2594

      #3
      Originally posted by w@lt
      As I posted this, 5Dimes put up men's odds. Fish -370. Parlay material for me.
      And they're down
      Comment
      • JohnnyRudeboy
        SBR MVP
        • 11-30-09
        • 1646

        #4
        Cechinatto is terrible at the ATP level, I fade him at every opportunity
        Comment
        • brodie
          SBR MVP
          • 11-25-13
          • 2212

          #5
          i dont even follow wta but the reasoning behind the eugene pick is just stupid. riske has been stinky? look at her recent hard results. she got blown out once agianst woz. bouch is not woz. I think riske will win, but i refuse to put money on wta unless it's chalk

          plus eugenes win was on grass
          Last edited by brodie; 08-27-15, 10:47 PM.
          Comment
          • w@lt
            SBR MVP
            • 10-08-10
            • 2594

            #6
            Originally posted by brodie
            i dont even follow wta
            Hmm. Well, maybe hold off on calling reasoning "stupid" in that case?
            Originally posted by brodie
            look at her recent hard results
            Well, she's won 4 matches in her last 5 tournaments. Even though, she hasn't exactly played push-overs.
            Originally posted by brodie
            plus eugenes win was on grass
            I realize that grass is her best surface, but I was more highlighting the fact that Genie won in her current poor form.
            Last edited by w@lt; 08-28-15, 09:04 AM.
            Comment
            • brodie
              SBR MVP
              • 11-25-13
              • 2212

              #7
              Originally posted by w@lt
              Hmm. Well, maybe hold off on calling reasoning "stupid" in that case?

              Well, she's won 4 matches in her last 5 tournaments. Even though, she hasn't exactly played push-overs.

              I realize that grass is her best surface, but I was more highlighting the fact that Genie won in her current poor form.
              3 out of the 4 are significantly better (or at least in better form) than bouch. if the reasoning wasnt stupid then why did you feel the need to edit the original post? taking bouch as any sort of favorite in this match is laughable to me. she could win, but it doesnt make anything I said wrong. This pick is backed by terrible reasoning
              Comment
              • w@lt
                SBR MVP
                • 10-08-10
                • 2594

                #8
                Originally posted by w@lt
                As I posted this, 5Dimes put up men's odds. Fish -370. Parlay material for me.
                Ooof. Some odds back up at 5dimes. Fish -475.
                Comment
                • w@lt
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-08-10
                  • 2594

                  #9
                  Bouchard -115. I'm hittin' it
                  Comment
                  • Snowball
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 11-15-09
                    • 30047

                    #10
                    If Genie can still play tennis, Riske does not present any serious
                    difficulties for her. Riske is not a very creative player. She is not
                    known for spin or net approaches.

                    Generally in the women's field I like the way Kvitova is coming in
                    and Bencic will be a difficult out for anyone.
                    Woz has a bad leg, Sharapova may not be 100%. Azarenka perhaps
                    but Halep not looking too strong. Kvitova is peaking at the right time
                    - just need to see her repeat performance this afternoon.
                    Comment
                    • w@lt
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-08-10
                      • 2594

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Snowball
                      If Genie can still play tennis, Riske does not present any serious
                      difficulties for her. Riske is not a very creative player. She is not
                      known for spin or net approaches.
                      I think that anyone could potentially be difficult for Genie right now, but I completely agree that Genie should have less trouble against someone with less variety, and should win if she just plays her game and limits errors.

                      Originally posted by Snowball
                      Generally in the women's field I like the way Kvitova is coming in
                      and Bencic will be a difficult out for anyone.
                      Woz has a bad leg, Sharapova may not be 100%. Azarenka perhaps
                      but Halep not looking too strong. Kvitova is peaking at the right time
                      - just need to see her repeat performance this afternoon.
                      Yep. Avoiding Woz and 'Pova until I see how they come into the week. Thinking about using Vika in a parlay, but may be better to wait and see with her also, as she left hurt in Cinci.
                      Last edited by w@lt; 08-29-15, 10:23 AM.
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                      • w@lt
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-08-10
                        • 2594

                        #12
                        First parlay. about -160

                        Mardy Fish -460
                        vs Marco Cecchinato
                        Kei Nishikori -1100 vs Benoit Paire
                        Belinda Bencic -1300 vs Sesil Karatantcheva
                        Victoria Azarenka -750 vs Lucie Hradecka
                        Comment
                        • w@lt
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-08-10
                          • 2594

                          #13
                          Genie shows something this week...

                          Eugenie Bouchard -120
                          Comment
                          • Snowball
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 11-15-09
                            • 30047

                            #14
                            Originally posted by w@lt
                            Genie shows something this week...

                            Eugenie Bouchard -120
                            maybe but it's also possible that she's really just not that great.
                            i would not be surprised if she proves to be a regular ranker of 30-60.
                            taking her in the first match vs. Riske looks good to me also, but
                            nothing beyond that.
                            Comment
                            • jtoler
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-17-13
                              • 30967

                              #15
                              Originally posted by brodie
                              i dont even follow wta but the reasoning behind the eugene pick is just stupid. riske has been stinky? look at her recent hard results. she got blown out once agianst woz. bouch is not woz. I think riske will win, but i refuse to put money on wta unless it's chalk

                              plus eugenes win was on grass
                              Why is that?
                              Comment
                              • Retibol
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 02-18-10
                                • 364

                                #16
                                Originally posted by w@lt
                                First parlay. about -160

                                Mardy Fish -460
                                vs Marco Cecchinato
                                Kei Nishikori -1100 vs Benoit Paire
                                Belinda Bencic -1300 vs Sesil Karatantcheva
                                Victoria Azarenka -750 vs Lucie Hradecka


                                I agree with Mardy Fish ,
                                But your not confident in David Goffin beating Bolelli?
                                Comment
                                • w@lt
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-08-10
                                  • 2594

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Retibol
                                  But your not confident in David Goffin beating Bolelli?
                                  Haven't followed either of them. Looks like Bolelli beat Goffin on hard earlier this year, though...
                                  Comment
                                  • w@lt
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-08-10
                                    • 2594

                                    #18
                                    Fuk your stupid ass, Nishikori. Benoit Fuking Paire. 2 fuking match points in the 4th set tiebreak.
                                    Comment
                                    • w@lt
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-08-10
                                      • 2594

                                      #19
                                      Just upped my bet on Genie. Don't let me down, girlfriend...
                                      Comment
                                      • pattymayo
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 05-19-09
                                        • 10221

                                        #20
                                        Walt don't bet with your emotions we all know you love genie we all saw your picture with her
                                        Comment
                                        • w@lt
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-08-10
                                          • 2594

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by pattymayo
                                          Walt don't bet with your emotions we all know you love genie we all saw your picture with her
                                          Haha, I know. Too late
                                          Comment
                                          • Snowball
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 11-15-09
                                            • 30047

                                            #22
                                            i think the bozo with the rough voice that keeps yelling COME ON GENIE
                                            is pissing her off.
                                            20+ unforced errors
                                            but she is the better player..
                                            Comment
                                            • w@lt
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-08-10
                                              • 2594

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Snowball
                                              i think the bozo with the rough voice that keeps yelling COME ON GENIE
                                              is pissing her off.
                                              20+ unforced errors
                                              but she is the better player..
                                              First set Genie! Not playing particularly well, but her serve seems to be better today. You're right, too many errors.
                                              Comment
                                              • Snowball
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 11-15-09
                                                • 30047

                                                #24
                                                Genie has a weak draw. Next is Hercog then probably Cibulkova..
                                                Cibulkova shouldn't have any problem wiping the court with Genie.
                                                Comment
                                                • w@lt
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 10-08-10
                                                  • 2594

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Snowball
                                                  Genie has a weak draw. Next is Hercog then probably Cibulkova..
                                                  Cibulkova shouldn't have any problem wiping the court with Genie.
                                                  Will probably take her again vs. Cog, but yeah, will probably stay away against Cibulkova.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • w@lt
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-08-10
                                                    • 2594

                                                    #26
                                                    About +100

                                                    Ohio State -445 vs Virginia Tech
                                                    Anna Karolina Schmiedlova -210 vs Julia Goerges
                                                    Victoria Azarenka -820 vs Lucie Hradecka
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Snowball
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 11-15-09
                                                      • 30047

                                                      #27
                                                      did you see Jimmy Connors is helping Genie now.
                                                      "while he's in New York"

                                                      she could do a lot worse for a long term coach

                                                      Comment
                                                      • w@lt
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-08-10
                                                        • 2594

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Snowball
                                                        did you see Jimmy Connors is helping Genie now.
                                                        "while he's in New York"

                                                        she could do a lot worse for a long term coach

                                                        Yeah, saw that. I read that there are no long term plans for him to be her coach as of now. She said that he's given her some confidence, for what it's worth..
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JohnnyRudeboy
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-30-09
                                                          • 1646

                                                          #29
                                                          Watched the whole 2nd set in person. Riske brought absolutely nothing to the table but genie was far from impressive. Will fade her here on out at reasonable odds
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Jeff_Black
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-04-15
                                                            • 3571

                                                            #30
                                                            Solid pick with Fish, tempted to take a handicap with him against Lopez
                                                            Comment
                                                            • brodie
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-25-13
                                                              • 2212

                                                              #31
                                                              just found out eugene has a twin sister that's significantly hotter than she is.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • brodie
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-25-13
                                                                • 2212

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Jeff_Black
                                                                Solid pick with Fish, tempted to take a handicap with him against Lopez
                                                                he didn't look great today. he will get worked by lopez. bet.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Jeff_Black
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-04-15
                                                                  • 3571

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Fair enough, being his last appearance professionally I think he'll put it all out there so maybe best to avoid it altogether for me. Lopez just hasn't been the same player in my eyes this year.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JohnnyRudeboy
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-30-09
                                                                    • 1646

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by brodie
                                                                    he didn't look great today. he will get worked by lopez. bet.

                                                                    Unfortunately, agreed.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • w@lt
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-08-10
                                                                      • 2594

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Yeah, Mardy didn't look as good yesterday, but I wouldn't count him out against Flopez. Still waiting on the odds for Genie-Cog.
                                                                      Comment
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