Lama 7% break rate doesnt help. 
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turning point for this one was g3 where Lama had Romboli's serve 0-40 and blew all bp's to let him off the hook...
two games later Romboli converted his bp's easily from 15-40 to get the crucial 1st break...
faak...'nother goddam red-ball, lolLast edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15, 08:14 PM.Comment -
Heres some pre-match stuff as usual. Ranked in terms of what i like most. Bottom is just a list of other potential upsets of italian playing at home bt none i really like or odds arent out.
fabbiano @2.69 vs souza
- souza aftr a quick start to the year has lost in the 1st round of the past 5 tournaments
- fabbinao in good form and just played a rome challenger
- itf/challenger playing atp tournament at home angle
napolitano @3.25 vs melzer
- melzer is still worth fading if u can get such high odds
- itf/challenger playing atp tournament at home angle
teixera 2-0 @3 vs pavic
- pavic 1st game back after a long time
- good server bt clay isnt his surface
pavlasek @4 vs bedene
- seems to always come good around this time of the year and then disappear
- has a pretty insane finals record
- $4 for a final is way too high
berdych @3.75 vs nadal
- nadal still looking way off from his best
- if berd serves well, he should be able to hang in there as he will def break nadal multiple times
other italian in rome:
quinzi
caruso
mager
gaio
donati
vanniComment -
Hoping Rosol takes down Chardy so we can see another Murray-Rosol match. Why nobody like Rosol?
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Allertova @3.5 (35-1 record as fav on clay last two years). Would be a 2 or 3 unit play but just keeping it simple for a while till I get out of this slump.Comment -
Berdych @ 3.75+ and Pavlasek @ 4.2+ are insane to me...Comment -
Hey I am going to the Raleigh Womens challenger on Tuesday for some main draw matches. Maybe I can give some insight and you give me a play or two. Looks like from the entry list players ranked 230-500.Here is the entry list..any thoughts?
MAIN DRAW - last modified on 08 May 20151 
Julia BOSERUP (USA)231 1 2 Florencia MOLINERO (ARG)237 1 3 Sanaz MARAND (USA)255 1 4 Samantha CRAWFORD (USA)264 1 5 Caitlin WHORISKEY (USA)273 1 6 Ana Sofia SANCHEZ (MEX)286 2 7 Chieh-Yu HSU (TPE)294 1 8 Allie KIICK (USA)295 2 9 Jessica MOORE (AUS)319 1 10 Justyna JEGIOLKA (POL)341 1 11 Petra RAMPRE (SLO)348 1 12 Vojislava LUKIC (SRB)401 3 13 Francesca SEGARELLI (DOM)428 1 14 Jan ABAZA (USA)429 3 15 Storm SANDERS (AUS)457 1 16 Lauren ALBANESE (USA)460 1 17 Alexandra STEVENSON (USA)473 1 18 Emma FLOOD (NOR)495 Comment -
^^ to me they were slight underdogs/coinflips. unfortunately nadal decided to play his best match of the year.
^ i dnt follow womens tennis as closely bt il let u kno once the main draw is out. some names i like before the draw is out is kiick and abaza. im assuming this is on green clay? if so backing just the americans would b safer as no one else would b use to themComment -
bourgue @3.4Comment -
gavrilova @3.25Comment -
maria @3.75Comment -
2-1 @3+ =$
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^
Ninomiya @3.25Comment -
The angle I've been taking about seems to be working wonders lately even for lopsided match ups (eg. Donati-Giraldo). There's a few in Challengers today/tomorrow, including two of my fav young guns in Moutet and Choinski who got WC's to the main draw. Nothing really stands out though from all the matches which is a surprise consider I usually see some nice potential upsets in the 1st round with the amount of matches being played.
+$3659Comment -
So how huge are we on J.P Smithy down a set and a break @ 8??
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I'm sorry... what angle now??
: SComment -
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ITF level players playing a Challenger or ATP tournament at home, or Challenger level player playing ATP tournament at home.
They seem to often either win or do much better than they are expected to do. So far has been the case in Rome but mentioned the angle a while back.Comment -
I've watched plenty of glimpses of it, and JP was about average (certainly not whoreshit), but Leeroy has been playing at a very high level barely making any errors (yes, I realize how preposterous that seems). The thing is that he's such a good lay (in the figurative, platonic sense, naturally) anytime he's ahead against anyone decent due to his inability to keep shit together.Comment -
LOL!
This crazy JP bitch just went up *40-0, then lost four straight points mostly by virtue of suckage, aces the MP. The pair exchange points until a couple of terribad errors give Leeroy yet another MP. JP proceeds to net the 1:st and ace the 2:nd!
In other words: MP 1, ACED; MP 2:, 2:nd ACED
My best estimate: Leeroy gets broken to love this next game...
Edit: So close! : (Comment -
Jenkins will probably now fall away in the last set. So often i see players get so close to winning but end up losing the 2nd set and just self-destructing in the 3rd. Jenkins is def one of those ppl that would do that as well.Comment -
I (would normally) agree, but he has been playing ridiculously well for almost two sets now, and at close to @3 is almost a good bet at this point. In any case I'm definitely going to hedge the f*ck up out of JP...
Edit: I'm being given @ 3.15 I mean come the f*ck on dude!
Poor Leeroy... it's liek he wants to smash that racquette so badleh but he just cannot afford it anymore!
: (Last edited by Hardcoar; 05-11-15, 02:52 AM.Comment -
Surely you have to feel that's poetic justice being done with DF'ing to surrender the breaku.Comment -
I dare you to lay Leeroy up a 2-0* in 3:rd. I dare you!
P.S. Nice thread, I took it!Comment -
Jenkins can be really good or really horrible to watch. It's a shame I'm missing out on the match but got stuff I need to get done before Choinski's match in 2 hours time. Haven't got to watch him in ages and really liked his game from the limited amount of matches I've seen from him.Comment -
lepchenko @2.75Comment -
nedoyesov @3.25Comment -
fk u nedo. dnt need more bsComment -
You guys see that in the last chally in Uzbek that one dog won in 31 matches..Crazy..and last night no dogs one in the other one. Could be time to carpet bomb the dogs in Samarkland..Comment -
Here is the draw for Raleigh Sirty. Still many qualies to add since the last ones finish 11am eastern tomorrow.
Kiick is the 2nd seed!!
Florencia MOLINERO (ARG) [1] |
|
Nicole FRENKEL (USA) (WC)
H2H| Kylie MCKENZIE (USA) (WC)
Alexandra MUELLER (USA)
H2H| Sanaz MARAND (USA) [8]
Julia BOSERUP (USA) [3]
H2H| Francesca SEGARELLI (DOM)
| Justyna JEGIOLKA (POL)
Petra RAMPRE (SLO)
H2H| Emma FLOOD (NOR)
Kaitlyn MCCARTHY (USA) (WC)
H2H| Chieh-Yu HSU (TPE) [7]
Ana Sofia SANCHEZ (MEX) [6]
|
Lauren ALBANESE (USA)
H2H| Alexandra STEVENSON (USA)
| Jessica MOORE (AUS)
| Samantha CRAWFORD (USA) [4]
Caitlin WHORISKEY (USA) [5]
H2H| Ingrid NEEL (USA) (WC)
|
Ana Paula NEFFA DE LOS RIOS (PAR)
H2H| Jan ABAZA (USA)
Storm SANDERS (AUS)
H2H| Allie KIICK (USA) [2]
It green clayLast edited by beefcake; 05-11-15, 01:27 PM.Comment -
8 of tomorrow's 9 matches are currently bettable (Karimov-Sharan off the board most places)...
just for hell of it, placed a full round-robin on all 2-leggers formed by the 8 dogs...if even 2 of the 8 dogs hit, my ticket will almost be refunded...anything more than that will be rapidly-escalating levels of wonderfulness...
just a 1u flier (one-28th of a unit on each little parlay) but could payout many times the stake if we finally get a dog-rich day...as you noted, uzbeki chals have been on an improbable 39-1 run, statistically crying for at least a mild dog-rich spell...it's damn-near inconceivable that two challengers back to back go something like 60-2 (when 47-15ish would be the rough centre of the expected distribution given odds in this range), so it's a fun little exercise to "position" yourself for the dog-rich spell that just "seems" inevitable...
hearing that faves have gone something like 39-1 so far in uzbeki chals is statistically similar to hearing that Black has gone 13-1 on a roulette wheel...presents a fun little "real-time random sampling" (aka. gambling) experiment that is potentially profitable in the short term...long-term, that's a different story (and the adjective "humbling" comes to mind)Last edited by fitguy67; 05-11-15, 10:47 PM.Comment -
carpet bomb samarkand confirmed
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Very weak draw at Raleigh but then realised it's a 25k tournament, not 50k like the others have been. I recognise majority of the names but know little to nothing about majority of them.
Kiick would be my fav for the tournament but gets a tough 1st round match against Sanders, who could create the upset especially in a 25k tournament. The WC Neel could be one to watch but very tough 1st round match against Whoriskey, who could be the darkhorse of the tournament. To be honest, anyone could win it as the talent level is pretty even across the field with no one player really standing out. Can't find odds for the matches though but the dogs could be decent here potentially.Comment -
Very happy with how Choinski is looking. Despite the loss and only have a .500 record, still think he is top 20 material in the future as mentioned in the Ymer thread. Probably deserved the win in straight sets but instead lost in straight sets. Was up 6-4 in the 1st set tiebreak before losing 6-8 with Copil getting some luck with the ball rolling over the net on set point. 2nd set was serving up 5-2 but lost 5 games in a row which was disappointing. Definitely got the talent and tools to be a threat in the future but still long way off in terms of putting everything together.
Moutet versing Haase later today. Another one that should be great in the future and would expect him to be a top 10 player if things go to plan. There's a stream of the match in bout 4 hours time if anyone is interested.
+$3459Comment
