SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[SirtySree]

Govortsova, Soylu, and Deviatiarov all won at exactly the same time. What were the chance of that!
Rus broken serving for the 2nd set twice though which is a bit of a pain.

Ymer has now won the last 6 out of 7 games after losing the first 5 games.

[juanquintero]

Ymer, Kyrgios, Coric, Kokkinakis... Future is bright

[SirtySree]

Ugh Rus seriously. Chokes twice serving for the set and then had like 6 set points on serve in the tiebreak.

+$4809

[SirtySree]

lopez @4.5 (wasnt a fav)

[makman]

Ymer, Kyrgios, Coric, Kokkinakis... Future is bright

must be kidding !!!!???

Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray

It is like, future has a "straight", present time has a "straight flush"

[SirtySree]

+$4709

Didn't think I could do better than the $3500 in 20 days during January but I have smashed that this month by a long way. Up over $4000 this month with 1 week to go still.

Moutet continues to impress for just a 16 yr old. Took down Authom the other day with relative ease. Versing Barrere today @2.5.

[SirtySree]

Darian King down 5-2 1st set @3.25

[SirtySree]

+$4609

Going good at the moment but could be great instead of just good. Seems like the only way I can lose at the moment is by bad beats.

King 2 match points on serve chokes a winner at the net after facing no break points for 2 sets.
Monticone up 40-0 serving for the set.
Rus serving twice for the set + 6 set points on serve in tiebreak.

[SirtySree]

Didn't end up posting my late plays yesterday as was betting off my phone so couldn't be bothered. Up bout 1 unit from 5 plays so didn't make much of a difference.

3 ATP tournaments coming up. Lots of late withdraws and entries, and I am expecting tons of upsets. Will post my thoughts on interesting matches when odds are out but I would probably avoid favs down a set in these tournaments as most players are just using it as preparation.

[SirtySree]

zemlja @3

[SirtySree]

richard becker @2.1 is the only play at munich that i like. fits the angle ive been talking about and also hernych is a better hard court player in my opinion. waiting on lines for the other 2 atp events

[SirtySree]

Sato @3.25

[SirtySree]

Tormo @3

[SirtySree]

+$4909

Didn't end up liking anything else in the qualifiers. Will see again once main draws are out.

[SirtySree]

maheta @3.5

[SirtySree]

guez @3

[SirtySree]

+$4709

Webley-Smith @3

[SirtySree]

Marcora @2.5

[SirtySree]

+$4509

Haven't had 4 losses in a row in quite a while. Needed some tanking and some fails to stop my good run.

Marcora 2/15 break points. Up 40-0 or 30-0 against serve multiple times and failed. Up 40-0 in deciding game and had 5 break points but still no good.
Guez missed a few breaks points in the 1st game of the 3rd set and got broken next game, and then proceeded to tank and won like 2 points in the next 4 games.
Maheta missed over half a dozen break points in the 3rd set whereas her opponent was 2/2.
Webley-Smith missed 4 break points up 40-0 in 1st game of 2nd set and then tanked the rest of the way as well.

[SirtySree]

Tormo @4 down set and 1-0 break.

Going back to someone I have won with before.

[SirtySree]

zzz no more qualifiers or semi/finals for me. said theyre too unpredictable before and still im mucking around with them.

[SirtySree]

Some pre-match stuff. Many players on the fade list in action but almost all are the dogs as books have caught on. Only ones left is Sijsling and Martin to fade as a fav.

Sonego @2.7 vs Laaksonen
- I am definitely taking this but just waiting on the 2-0 line to go up on 10bet for me. I'll most like do half on ML and half on 2-0.
- Hopefully line doesn't go down though as it usually does for Sonego

Mertl @2.1 vs Martin
- Most likely taking this but same as the above. Waiting for the 2-0.

Brkic @2.1 vs Siljsling
- Not too sure about this yet. Sijsling is never actually out of form to fade, he just doesn't show up in 1st rounds majority of the time.
- Makes it hard to actually fade him for the reason above.

[SirtySree]

dennis novak wins yet another final. 3 in a row and 5 for the year. as mentioned before, dnt understand y he doesnt play challengers

[Hardcoar]

Loserphobia.

[SirtySree]

Loserphobia.

[fitguy67]

dennis novak wins yet another final. 3 in a row and 5 for the year. as mentioned before, dnt understand y he doesnt play challengers

Loserphobia.

i think HC was referring to Novak's choosing to stay a big fish in a small pond...rather than your risk-averse betting style...

hopefully the ass-cheeks will goad young Dennis into taking the next step up the ladder, lest he become locked in as a younger poorer version of "Rampras"

[fitguy67]

re: your pre-match shouts above...payouts have sweetened considerably for those with b365 and pin

Sonego now@3.11 (prev@2.7)
Mertl now@2.25 (prev@2.1)
Brkic now@2.20 (prev@2.1)

[SirtySree]

i think HC was referring to Novak's choosing to stay a big fish in a small pond...rather than your risk-averse betting style...

hopefully the ass-cheeks will goad young Dennis into taking the next step up the ladder, lest he become locked in as a younger poorer version of "Rampras"

HC is a 'cheeky' fella.

re: your pre-match shouts above...payouts have sweetened considerably for those with b365 and pin

Sonego now@3.11 (prev@2.7)
Mertl now@2.25 (prev@2.1)
Brkic now@2.20 (prev@2.1)

Unfortunately 10bet doesn't actually do anything other than ML for Challenger events and the odds aren't as nice as the above.

I'm also liking Ymer and Khachanov today. They are training partners and I don't think ive talked about Khachanov much before but I've really liked his game for a while now. Not someone that's been talked about a whole lot but I am expecting him to be top 20 material in 5 years time.

I am passing on everything pre-game, including Sonego. Will look for all 5 possibly if they go down a set. New week so new round meaning no need for me to get too creative with pre-game picks with the amount of matches available in the next few days.

[fitguy67]

i've been having good luck with auto-buying a small ticket (to WIN--not risk, WIN--one measly unit on each...the bigger the payout=the lower the likelihood of cashing=the cheaper is the ticket) on all your leans in this thread...no need to stop now, so in addition to the three above, i've just added

Ymer@2.11 (pin)
Khachanov@2.63 (b365)...eg. risk just 0.61u to win 1u

BTW, i've come to share your evaluation of ymer as extra-special in the all-important composure department...he really dug deep and showed remarkable "true grit" in his win over kyrgios

[SirtySree]

Ostapenko @3. Didn't want to bet on qualifiers but too good to pass up. Her 27/30 record as fav on clay last 2 years also helped.

[SirtySree]

i've been having good luck with auto-buying a small ticket (to WIN--not risk, WIN--one measly unit on each...the bigger the payout=the lower the likelihood of cashing=the cheaper is the ticket) on all your leans in this thread...no need to stop now, so in addition to the three above, i've just added

Ymer@2.11 (pin)
Khachanov@2.63 (b365)...eg. risk just 0.61u to win 1u

BTW, i've come to share your evaluation of ymer as extra-special in the all-important composure department...he really dug deep and showed remarkable "true grit" in his win over kyrgios

good to see its helping someone. good luck today. if u like ymer, u will like khachanov who has some similar attributes with both his play and composure

mikael ymer also in action this week in a weak field in an itf event in sweden. expecting him to do well and possibly win that.
theres also a third ymer who should b in action in a few years time as hes much younger than elias and mikael.

[SirtySree]

didnt hav golubev on my fade list bt he should b on there. only realising the match now but basilishvili as the dog is decent bt still nt liking ml price a lot

[SirtySree]

tempting to take him now @6 after losing 6-1. wasnt as bad as the score suggested as golubev converted his breaks whereas basil didnt.

going to pass tho. first time playing at istanbul and after 20mins, the clay is already falling apart a bit and bouncing inconsistently.

[Hardcoar]

I like Ymer's chances but @ 2.1 isn't too enticing...

[beefcake]

Look at Cao's price falling vs Forever Recovering from injury Zemlja at +600!! Like that