scout's honor

[girlscoutcookies]

monfils/bird under 23 -112
monf -103
nadal +3 +107
nadal +1.5 sets -129

[girlscoutcookies]

sugita 1st set +240
gimeno traver +222

[girlscoutcookies]

gonzalez +1.5 sets +226
berankis +2 +109
robredo -5 +133
zopp +126

[girlscoutcookies]

carballes +1.5 sets +133

penetrate you gonzalez

[girlscoutcookies]

montanes +1.5 sets +502

[girlscoutcookies]

gasquet +2 +101

[fitguy67]

[girlscoutcookies]

goffin +129

[girlscoutcookies]

wawa to win madrid +1450
dimitrov -1.5 sets +116
delic +147
feliciano +120
goffin+1.5 sets +160

[Dmoneytx]

I have Lopez too, I couldn't pass on +120 either.. Lost first set in breaker, FUK! We need a Mayer let down, one can only hope...

[Dmoneytx]

Shit man, lol, I gotta stop betting on stupid fukking Lopez.. I have been off betting Dimitrov and Wawrinka for awhile now. I have to stop betting Lopez, he sucks man. I know he barely beat a horrible Becker yest, but he has seriously declined in his game over the years. I will fade him for some time to come now, I just have to remember this is all.. Have a good day brotha, laters...

[girlscoutcookies]

if i blackballed every guy who fukked me i wouldn't be betting tennis any more. Lopez is always a tough nut to crack. usually after he wins looking horrible 1st round he goes on a mini run. Not this time. Oh well. Only money lost. Not like I need it to survive or anything

[fitguy67]

^^^exactly^^^ elite-talent/motivationally-unstable players like monfils, fognini, jerzy (and flopez who's not QUITE as bad as the above)...can make VERY good dogs to bet on but they ain't worth a grain of chalk as a favorite...

see post#6, http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ant-pound.html

for a recent mini word-blizzard on this

[fitguy67]

goffin maturation (consolidation of his recent run up the rankings) continues with a milestone first win of a set over one the two alpha-males (the other is Raonic) of this early-20-something cohort (born very late80s/very early 90s)

last year saw goffin go from a scrub to a player to be reckoned with...whether he takes it all the way and gets a W today vs Nishi or not...goffin seems likely to stay comfortably in the top 40 for quite a long while

thanks for the winna, scout

[brodie]

Yo.... Stan as a dog to Dimi????? the fuc

goffin maturation (consolidation of his recent run up the rankings) continues with a milestone first win of a set over one the two alpha-males (the other is Raonic) of this early-20-something cohort (born very late80s/very early 90s)

last year saw goffin go from a scrub to a player to be reckoned with...whether he takes it all the way and gets a W today vs Nishi or not...goffin seems likely to stay comfortably in the top 40 for quite a long while

thanks for the winna, scout

no way he deserves to be ranked 21 right now, he went on a nice run at the end of last year but come on now... top 50 yes, top 25 fuk outta here

[girlscoutcookies]

Yo.... Stan as a dog to Dimi????? the fuc

where you see stan as a dog i see slight fav everywhere

[brodie]

where you see stan as a dog i see slight fav everywhere

betonline

stan -102 dimi -114. not at + money but still a dog

[fitguy67]

no way he deserves to be ranked 21 right now, he went on a nice run at the end of last year but come on now... top 50 yes, top 25 fuk outta here

i said he'd settle out and stay top-40ish, you say top-50ish...tom-ay-to, tom-ah-to

we can agree that he has certainly upped his game (and, most importantly to him, earning power) markedly in the last year...and--unless he sells his soul to the devil--will never be top-tier elite, but should never again have to slog full time in the challengers with the likes of ebden, harrison, and ram...but no-one knows the future
___________
speaking of tomatoes, one that goffin probably deserves to be ahead of is that POS kohlschreiber (#24 apparently) who decided he had better things to do today than play a third set of tennis against Murray...all those with the +games on him should be able to file a class action suit on the lazy bastard...no sign of a "fix" whatever...just a millionaire wanting to get back to his hotel room in time to bang some beaver before it's gotta get to the airport

[girlscoutcookies]

mayer +3 +121

[girlscoutcookies]

ferrer +3 -102
ferrer +174

[fitguy67]

ferrer vs nishikori...the classic "backboard vs. backboard" battle....

on both sides of the court we have:

"the heart of a lion" combined with "the serve of sara errani"

if either man gets winded like those pussy NBA'ers (wow, guys pulling in mega-millions per year are praised as workhorses for "logging over 20minutes on the floor tonight!")...dudi sella and gilles simon will be on hand as the official bench subs

[GoBlue77]

ferrer vs nishikori...classic "backboard vs. backboard" battle....

on both sides of the court we have:

"the heart of a lion" combined with "the serve of sara errani"

lmao. or...

"the physical body strength of a marshmallow" versus "the fortitude of a t-800 terminator that never breaksdown"

nishi might get a hangnail prior to the match...

[fitguy67]

lol, yeah, the event sponsored by Energizer batteries

[Bbfromgpt]

Ferrer choked early after having a cushion

[Conqueror]

Farmer's service is gone.

[girlscoutcookies]

lorenzi +4.5 +134
lorenzi +1.5 sets +182
lorenzi +580

[lucasdawg]

why lorenzi?

[Quill]

lorenzi +4.5 +134
lorenzi +1.5 sets +182
lorenzi +580

A thousand words... more than enough for a bet analysis

[fitguy67]

Klizan 3.26/+226 over Dolgo looks wonderful (perhaps TOO wonderful)

http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1312190

...everytime i decide to avoid "the obvious trap" i miss out on "the massive gift"...and everytime i decide to accept "the massive gift" i am embarrassed by "the obvious trap" i fell into...

so, from now on...to pull Murphy's Law out of the equation when my "spidey sense" goes off like this, i've decided to just auto-hit'em to win one measly unit...here risking just 0.44u on a ticket trying to sneak 1u into my roll...(doesn't happen all that often...last time was thinking Pouille was overly-cheap vs.Theme-Park a few weeks ago)

I'm not gonna overthink it, say no sometimes/yes other times, not gonna cap my confidence and get fancy with bet size, etc....if i think I've spotted a gift, i'll put enough on it to win 1u, and do it every time
___________

but would like you sharp guyz to weigh in tho'...why the frack is Dolgo a 1.39/-257 fave over Klizan here?...any "points to defend" or "injury" thing(s) going on in this matchup that the entry-level "tennis-explorer capping" I rely on has missed? (not going to change my bet or anything THIS TIME...but do appreciate being "wised up" for the next time i think i'm looking at a potential gift/trap situation, to help me better discern the difference)

[Hardcoar]

I'll just add to the spam: Substantiated injury concerns.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wrist injury has been off and on for him. Could be a tremendous price if his wrist isn't hurting, but why would you want to guess if he's healthy or not?

[fitguy67]

math geek/sports dolt that i am, i actually had no clue how you tenny-sharps handled injury issues or "points to defend" stuff...wasn't in front of my nostrils in tennisexplorer, so i figured it must be complicated...

BUT...once again, remembering that "there is this this thing called google..." is the key...leading me to such things as

http://www.bettingkingdom.co.uk/betting-tips/tennis/ATP-Rome-Masters/Martin-Klizan-v-Alexandr-Dolgopolov/56530

anyhow, the first link i hit was a "writeup" (barely) from this guy that seems fully cognizant of the wrist-issues but still reckons him at -125/1.8, thus seeing the current price as attractive (whenever i wanna say "massive gift" i always think of two posters...GusFring and davopnz--rest their degenerate souls--who used it with hubris to describe all of their mostly-losing bets, no matter the sport)..

WTF...i'm sure there are plenty of guyz taking the exact-opposite stance, touting Dolgo and playing up Klizan's hopelessy effed-up wrist...in the end, nobody really knows how much it's bothering Klizan 'cept Klizan himself...and the north of 2-to-1 payout more than compensates, i reckon, for the net negative-effect of whatever injury the market deems he's suffering from, adjusted for the perceived-reliability of that information...

gun to head...with ZERO injury issues surrounding either of the two...if this were a pick'em, i'd pick Klizan (based on my pedestrian tennisexplorer-based considerations)...throw in injury concerns, now i obviously wouldn't risk anything close to a unit to win my 1unit target...but if i only have to stake 0.44units for my shot at the same 1u prize...then it's easier to take a shot even knowing there's an issue in play that decreases (to an unknowable degree) the bet's likelihood of cashing...the additional uncertainty is factored into the discounted price i get...

_____________

if i had been hip to the health-issue tho'...i'd have made sure to place it at a book that voids on retirement (hopefully i don't have to pay$ for this "wise up" tomorrow)...come'on Klizan, may the Absorbine be with you...and to Dolgo: may your pony-tail be uncomfortably tight

[fitguy67]

^^result: donation of 0.44units
lesson learned: FNO, check out/work in both the "injury" and "points to defend" angles on short-listed matches

sorry for hi-jacking your thread with this "Tennis-Betting 101" stuff, scout

[Hardcoar]

Wrist injury has been off and on for him. Could be a tremendous price if his wrist isn't hurting, but why would you want to guess if he's healthy or not?

Because you consider your guess good enough to warrant the risk, given the reward, obviously.

[Snowball]

injury issues or "points to defend" stuff...wasn't in front of my nostrils in tennisexplorer

both are there, if you click on the individual player. name and length of injury, then tournament history.
you don't need the actual points to defend, that's distributed according to the class of 250,500,1000, etc.
if the player doesn't at least win the same level reached in prior year, then they lose the points to the winner.