scout's honor

[girlscoutcookies]

ivanovic/safarova over 22.5 +109
bacsinszky +1.5 sets +158

2-0 +2.67u

FO overall

25 - 25 +12.69u *including losing nishikori future

[fitguy67]

something appropriate to the occasion (winning a gash-rackets bet...sweeping two of 'em in fact)...

[girlscoutcookies]

[girlscoutcookies]

tsonga +1.5 sets +130
tsonga +4.5 +107
tsonga +229
tsonga/wawa over 41 +102

[fitguy67]

lots and lots of early rounds of non-slam action now to turn our attention...far more likely to have misplaced lines to take advantage of

when we're down to the last few rounds of a slam like this the lines get so sharp (aka. accurate) from action that the chalk spread between the two sides of most plays amount to a pure 5% "rake" (at Pinny, the best of the lot...much more elsewhere...
see http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc_take.htm
pretty well eclipsing any "edge" we might be lucky enough to find on a slightly-misplaced line)

the linesmakers will make lots more (and much bigger) line-setting mistakes on the early rounds of new non-marquis tourneys

...just thinkin' out loud again scouter...if you think you've found something sweet on wawa-tsonga/joker-murray, post away...

as for safa vs. thunder-thighs, i'll give that one a miss...safa payouts should be a lot higher than they are to compensate for their unlikelihood of cashng but who wants to put up a lot to win a unit on a pouty drama queen...only way to capitalize on the fave-value here would be to put exactly 1u on Serena to win just 0.35u, treating it as the first leg of an all-fave sequential parlay, so if/when it hits you can earmark 1.35 for the next fave you'd like to play...and snowball (aka. parlay) your winnings one-fave at a time

continued good luck to the good guys

[fitguy67]

while i'm word-blizzarding, see u already snuck in a play on tsonga...the side i'd prefer, gun to the head, long-term value-wise and just "pulling for the underdog/usually hapless froggy"-wise...

would be nice if a frenchman actually made the French Open final once every quarter-century or so, lol

[girlscoutcookies]

gonna skip the murray/novak match.
agree with your thoughts on the sharpness of the last rounds of semi's. i always get ass blasted in these later rounds & I also always lose my wta bets so hopefully I'm turning the tide?

can only handle so many tennis bets..thankfully passed on krajinovic last night so I'm just ignoring that shit for now.

[brodie]

what do you see in tsonga? stan has been lights out.

[girlscoutcookies]

what do you see in tsonga? stan has been lights out.

u still trust him? so he beats simon and federer, meh.
joe has been lights out too. crowd should be nice tomorrow. they were cheering mid rally during the nishikori match. french tards

[girlscoutcookies]

not to mention the aclectic acid buildup strongly favoring tsonga

[SirtySree]

not to mention the aclectic acid buildup strongly favoring tsonga

cant forget about that alaric acid angle

[brodie]

u still trust him? so he beats simon and federer, meh.
joe has been lights out too. crowd should be nice tomorrow. they were cheering mid rally during the nishikori match. french tards

the last 3 sets of the nishikori match jojowillie looked like complete shit. his serve is the only thing that won him that match. he's not going to be able to pull that shit with stanny. I think first set is close and then stan rolls him after that. stan LOOKS great to me. and it's on both sides of the ball, I'm telling you he's gonna force it to tsonga's back hand the whole match (similar to what sushikori was doing) but he's going to do it with the ability to finish points and come to the net.

but in the end... both were seen practicing their shots so it's really a toss up

[girlscoutcookies]

the last 3 sets of the nishikori match jojowillie looked like complete shit. his serve is the only thing that won him that match. he's not going to be able to pull that shit with stanny. I think first set is close and then stan rolls him after that. stan LOOKS great to me. and it's on both sides of the ball, I'm telling you he's gonna force it to tsonga's back hand the whole match (similar to what sushikori was doing) but he's going to do it with the ability to finish points and come to the net.

but in the end... both were seen practicing their shots so it's really a toss up

really tho I'm betting against wawa playing how you think he should play. i know he's considered a grand slam wizard but counting on him to be flawless tomorrow after he destroys federer is square imo

[matt1216]

Acid won't matter with the extra day off

[girlscoutcookies]

novak -7 +130

said id skip but gotta fade wizzle

[girlscoutcookies]

tsonga +1.5 sets +130
tsonga +4.5 +107
tsonga +229
tsonga/wawa over 41 +102

1 - 3 -1.98u

FO overall

26 - 28 +10.71u *pending losing novak play

[girlscoutcookies]

safarova to win 2-1 +580

[matt1216]

GS in 4 games

[girlscoutcookies]

Copil +171

In the Dominican on my phone so no record for now.

[matt1216]

Cavaliers!!

[fitguy67]

GS in 4 games

Cavaliers!!

gotta love flexibilty...

[fitguy67]

Copil +171

In the Dominican on my phone so no record for now.

cool, what's her name? that high-school Spanish turns out to be good for something

[matt1216]

gotta love flexibilty...

I handnt watched The cavaliers much befor Irving got hurt. I had a feeling Lebron would put the team on his shoulders. Let's be real though, if GS wasn't so putrid from 3 point range, they probably win by 15

[fitguy67]

let's be honest...NBA is a hi-variance crap-shoot (eg. 3-point shooting is a carnival-game reward for failing to/opting to move the ball, and officiating is a goddam series of 50-50 pinball jumps/excuses to review)

how anybody can actually form an opinion on a game, let alone a series, is beyond me...

NBA=constantly-interrupted legal proceedings (last 3 mins of reg-time, refs spend more time evaluating vid-replays than actual live play...expaining why that 3 minutes lasts an hour) in pajamas with slickly-produced TV-backup

NHL playoffs are competitive flowing sport...NBA is a marketed product you can bet on (which i'll do, based primarily on "story arc" =WWE-logic = "what result is best for the company")...but i won't waste any time watching that shit, especially the orchestrated bullshit "endings"...I just grade my bet, and adjust the story-arc accordingly

[matt1216]

let's be honest...NBA is a hi-variance crap-shoot (eg. 3-point shooting is a carnival-game reward for failing to/opting to move the ball, and officiating is a goddam series of 50-50 pinball jumps/excuses to review)

how anybody can actually form an opinion on a game, let alone a series, is beyond me...

NBA=constantly-interrupted legal proceedings (last 3 mins of reg-time, refs spend more time evaluating vid-replays than actual live play...expaining why that 3 minutes lasts an hour) in pajamas with slickly-produced TV-backup

NHL playoffs are competitive flowing sport...NBA is a marketed product you can bet on (which i'll do, based primarily on "story arc" =WWE-logic = "what result is best for the company")...but i won't waste any time watching that shit, especially the orchestrated bullshit "endings"...I just grade my bet, and adjust the story-arc accordingly

Fitguy, for the reason above, I love wagering on big dogs... Aside from to Houston wagers I had lost i thought Mephis @+400 game in GS was a steal along with +265 last night on Cleveland. I wouldn't be surprised if Clevland won this series without Irving. This would only cement Labrons legacy. The inexperience of GS may kill them in the end. Not to mention that insane defence

[fitguy67]

on a game to game basis, ML dogs the way to go with that horseshit...

playing spreads in baskets, with either plus- or minus-points...you're just begging Murphy's Law to fukk you to in the ear...the last two minutes of any NBA game is like goddam Vince-McMahon orchestrated shit...teams "deciding" to foul/not foul exactly contrary to common sense etc. etc. et-fukking-cetra

at least with the ML, especially in the playoffs, if you read the "story arc" angle correctly u cash

[girlscoutcookies]

Bachinger +127
Kush +120

[girlscoutcookies]

Ito +2.5 -105
Pospisil +1.5 +121

[EaglesPhan36]

I got this picture from girlscoutcookies on his Dominican vacation. This is how he powers their wiFi so he can post picks. Solid dude. Runs in a hamster wheel just so you guys can have picks.

[girlscoutcookies]

😂😁👏👏

[girlscoutcookies]

Goffin -1.5 sets +154
Chiudellini +314

[girlscoutcookies]

Goffin always cashes for me

[girlscoutcookies]

Monfils +1.5 +102

[girlscoutcookies]

Groth +112

[Honeybadger44]

Groth +112

Seems like a solid line. Only thing bothering me with this play is Troicki's return. It was outstanding in first two rounds. Alsmost no free points on serve for opponent. And when you are able to limit Groth in that area, he could find himself in trouble. GL with the play!