scout's honor

[girlscoutcookies]

lorenzi +244
groth +105
berrer/delpotro/darcis +426

[girlscoutcookies]

coric/haider-maurer over 22 +117

[girlscoutcookies]

haase/mannarino +175
donald +5.5 +119
gulbis +133
duckworth +244

[Dmoneytx]

What's up GS??! Wow man, I was a total sucker too today & took goofy dumb fuk retard Haase as well in a small parlay. Thank god I didn't do anything big on him. He is such a flake fing loser man. Bageled third set? Wow. What a pos. Lol...

Hope all is well man. I'll try to be back soon. Laters..

[brodie]

lmao fking dmoney. never fails to put a smile on my face

[Joenaes]

You are being missed man, whats up?!

[girlscoutcookies]

You are being missed man, whats up?!

been busy with real life , had to take break ill be making some bets this week

[fitguy67]

the next time the urge to face those real-life concerns head on (you know...to the detriment of your gambling responsibilities) we trust you won't make the same mistake again...

glad you'll be firing up the old live-dog sniffing unit again, scout...single best thread around here for plus-sign loving degens

______________
fellow variance-hating super-chickens might want to consider betting all the dogs in this thread TO WIN (not risk) 1 measly unit as I do...so the bigger the dog, the cheaper is the ticket...much lower drawdowns when the dogs slump as they must inevitably do...so not as euphoric (but just as profitable) when they rally (equally inevitably)...and make suffering thru the preceding slump all worthwhile

i find that "losing in fractions/winning in ones" is gentler on the roll and the blood pressure than
"losing in ones/winning in multiples"...a pussy way to size your bets i suppose, but thot' i'd throw it out there for discussion since i haven't posted anything in a while to earn my betpoints...

whether to risk 1u as posted (or to win 1u as I suggest) on each play is not so important as that you pick one and stick with it consistently...i agree whole-heartedly with scout that flat-sizing + patience is the surest way to live long and prosper
________
ok, done with the egghead stuff...start postin' some fukkin' winnazz for us, scout...or we'll withhold our subscription fees!

[girlscoutcookies]

ouahab +113
klizan/almagro under 21.5 +100

[fitguy67]

pouille +338 (over Thiem on Monday at Monte Carlo) triggers my "spidey sense"...

just can't see Pouille having a less than 23% chance to win here in this first meeting of two impressive young players (Thiem obviously moreso at this point)

but i haven't fully factored in the potential "frenchiosity" of the situation, as Pouille hasn't struck me yet as being very high on the Monfils-Chardy "Walmart Tent" scale

also my tennis "spidey sense" on its very best day tends to be dreadfully unreliable

[SirtySree]

pouille +338 (over Thiem on Monday at Monte Carlo) triggers my "spidey sense"...

just can't see Pouille having a less than 23% chance to win here in this first meeting of two impressive young players (Thiem obviously moreso at this point)

but i haven't fully factored in the potential "frenchiosity" of the situation, as Pouille hasn't struck me yet as being very high on the Monfils-Chardy "Walmart Tent" scale

also my tennis "spidey sense" on its very best day tends to be dreadfully unreliable

I think Pouille is too reliant on his serve at the moment and has too many games where he has a lack of concentration or misses his 1st serve and gets broken. Thiem on the other hand has a game which I think makes him adaptable to all surfaces but clay would be his best surface as he likes to return far behind the baseline, which is something that will also nullify Pouille's serve especially on this slow surface.

I think Thiem wins here 3 out of 4 times so minimal value there. Pouille would need to serve well and then still need Thiem to have a bad day.

[Hardcoar]

I agree. Those odds are about fair to me as well.

Had Theme-Park not been playing so ridiculously well in Miami (my mami) I would likely have shared your opinion, Fit.

[Dmoneytx]

, as Pouille hasn't struck me yet as being very high on the Monfils-Chardy "Walmart Tent" scale

Lmfao!!!!! That was hilarious Fit

[fitguy67]

yeah, key word i was careful to include there is "yet"...

there's gotta be a gene that separates the Spaniards from the Frenchmen that makes the former much more reliable for betting on as similarly-priced favorites...

who'd you rather bet on as a -150...RBA or ERV?

[girlscoutcookies]

stakh +3.5 -107
jerzy +160
kukushkin +282

[Dmoneytx]

What up GS???!!! I got some Oregon stinky stanky smelly super good last night I hope you are doing well! Good luck on the plays man. Damn, I was gonna take Stak last night, but that guy just makes me mad looking at him, so I laid off. Good call there man. Gotta run, have a good day brother!

[beefcake]

Hey smoke up buddy!!

[girlscoutcookies]

What up GS???!!! I got some Oregon stinky stanky smelly super good last night I hope you are doing well! Good luck on the plays man. Damn, I was gonna take Stak last night, but that guy just makes me mad looking at him, so I laid off. Good call there man. Gotta run, have a good day brother!

thanks bud. everything cool over here. gonna make money this week, i guarantee it lol
heading to the dispensary myself today..very excited lol

[fitguy67]

...gonna make money this week, i guarantee it lol

gotta love a guarantee like that, especially when it's backed by that absolutely unconditional full (and instantaneous) refund of all subscription fees!

kohl at plus money over RBA tomorrow?

[girlscoutcookies]

ramos +1.5 sets +558
chardy -1.5 sets +149
klizan +1.5 -111
vesely +213
kuznetsov 1st set +253

[Honeybadger44]

Like your picks for today (and this thread in general). Definitely going to tail you on this Kuznetsov 1st set play. It should be the smartest way to go in that match. Good luck!

[girlscoutcookies]

pouille +338 (over Thiem on Monday at Monte Carlo) triggers my "spidey sense"...

nice call fitguy

[girlscoutcookies]

granollers +289
granollers +1.5 sets +115
agut -3 +114
agut + feds 2-0 +154
paire/simon under 21.5 -111

[girlscoutcookies]

dimitrov +184

[fitguy67]

simon +484 worth a shot against ferrer imo

it's easy for me to take dumbass shots like this cuz my shots on big dogs are chicken-liver sized (based on "to win" rather than having to stake a whole unit)...

so for me, it's just 0.2066u to win 1u

thanks for the nice hit on dimi

[girlscoutcookies]

simon +484 worth a shot against ferrer imo

it's easy for me to take dumbass shots like this cuz my shots on big dogs are chicken-liver sized (based on "to win" rather than having to stake a whole unit)...

so for me, it's just 0.2066u to win 1u

thanks for the nice hit on dimi

had simon against ferrer couple weeks ago. putting ice picks through my testes would have been more enjoyable.

[fitguy67]

had simon against ferrer couple weeks ago. putting ice picks through my testes would have been more enjoyable.

i'll add that one to my "witty painful-genitalia metaphors useful in a gambling context" file, along with EP's "i'd rather put my dick in a pencil sharpener" line (probably about betting on a Chardy-match)...

problem with dogs playing well enough to force a deciding set in tennis, i find, is exactly analogous to a dog in college hoops getting into overtime against a heavily-favored opponent...seems they're satisfied with the consolation "victory" of surprising most with a better than expected/creditable performance... and very often fold with little resistance at the business end of the contest

funny how these tennis dogs will fight like hell (full of pride-driven tenacity) to not get straight-setted...then, once that's done, seem to be quite ok with/almost welcoming of the loss (often of the bagelled/breadsticked variety)...

take-home lesson: next time I think "simon at plus-odds" instantly visualize "ice picks" and "pencil-sharpeners"...Anderson's exactly the same way, for example...these two guys (and many others) may be consistent can-crushers but always seem to fall short of turning any surprise good-showing into an actual "W"...the big odds on them are often enticing, but we gotta remember these guys will often tease but very seldom actually deliver...(now i understand why you use the +1.5sets bet so often)

[SCI]

i'll add that one to my "witty painful-genitalia metaphors useful in a gambling context" file, along with EP's "i'd rather put my dick in a pencil sharpener" line (probably about betting on a Chardy-match)...

problem with dogs playing well enough to force a deciding set in tennis, i find, is exactly analogous to a dog in college hoops getting into overtime against a heavily-favored opponent...seems they're satisfied with the consolation "victory" of surprising most with a creditable performance... and very often fold with little resistance at the business end of the contest

funny how these tennis dogs will fight like hell to not get straight-setted...then, once that's done, seem to be quite ok with/almost welcoming of the loss (often of the bagelled/breadsticked variety)...

take-home lesson: next time I think "simon at plus-odds" instantly visualize "ice picks" and "pencil-sharpeners"

I understand where your coming from, but Ferrer makes you work for everything. It eventually takes it's toll, especially against someone similiar in playing style. It took all of what Simon had to win that 2nd set breaker. He had little left physically for the 3rd set. It had little to do with accepting defeat. Guys like Nadal and Ferrer have been wearing/grinding players down for years now. That's how they make a living.

[fitguy67]

ur right, it is what's known as "embracing the grind" in combat sports...long known that good skill + outstanding physical-stamina/mental-tenacity usually prevail over outstanding skill + good physical-stamina/mental-tenacity...

spanish players, in general, whatever their level of skill are seldom weak in this tenacity department...

[girlscoutcookies]

you get the perfect storm of frustration watching & backing simon vs ferrer cuz of all the pushing back n forth.
gilou gives a glimmer of hope too cuz he'll break ferrer a bunch of times, but he just refuses to hold serve. plus he's french. it's just very sad and not fun.

[girlscoutcookies]

raonic 1st set +140
dimitrov/monfils under 23 -104
cilic +1.5 sets +339

[Dmoneytx]

Nice to see you get the bailout on first set Raonic there GS!! Lol, that sucked bec I had $350 on Berdych ML, arg!!! Sucks giraffe couldn't struggle one more game and then quit, oh well.. At least I put 150 on Monfils ML, had to jump on +100 bec I thought he might actually be the small fav with that win against Fed yesterday. I just got up, wow Dimitrov must of shit the bed hard this morning huh??? Lol, oh well have a good day man, I'll hit ya up later..

[fitguy67]

nvm

[girlscoutcookies]

nice monfils hit d$.

another break even night, blah. not sure why i keep betting novak to lose a set.

[Ralphalph]

Nice picks, girlscout... It was a wash for me today as well. I took Cilic +6 and Monfil +1.5 Anywho, tonight I think Djokovic loses. He's been playing marshmellows this whole tournament. He won't cover -3 against Nadal. I also like the bird tonight moneyline. Got any thoughts? GL!