Mucho gracias honeyB. Hoping Groth can hammer home first serves for me today.
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Goffin -6 +346
If he hits this for me I shall tweet him nudes of my girlfriendLast edited by girlscoutcookies; 06-12-15, 09:13 AM.Comment -
GL Cookies!Comment -
Marchenko, never doubt the ginger broComment -
Goffin +100Comment -
I wouldn't pick goffin here.Comment -
Hard to pass up on someone at + odds with the finals record that he has got, especially in recent times.Comment -
Sirtysree, I saw something on the book for this play, specifically. Nothing against anyone's intelligence.Comment -
the book is obviously tipping its hand, revealing which side a play they are trying to trap we stupid mortals who don't know the future...
you may call it a form of numerical "tea-leave reading"...but to those of us hip to the matt1216 beat it's a "new trend"
these discoveries always have an "extremely high hit rate" right up until he starts posting them...
anyhow, the pattern of numbers in the online book somehow shouted to matt1216 "we want you take Goffin"...because they knew he would lose, those omniscient bastards
hopefully this becomes a new theme over in the winners-pickin' thread...leading to all sorts of fun, as we try to nail matt1216 down on which of his two-dozen daily plays (which seem to generally have an extremely low hit rate, and a strong tendency to increase in bet-size as the thread goes on and the net losses mount)...anyhow, of all these plays, which ones are the result of the extremely profitable "new trend"
that's as much as i can figure out so far, broadieLast edited by fitguy67; 06-15-15, 04:21 AM.Comment -
Btw he has already shown us that particular trend and it failed miserably as usual. What it basically was is that he finds matches with the same ML price but different 2-0 set prices, for example. ie. mahut @2 in one match and kuznetsov @2 in another but the 2-0 is @3 for mahut and @3.5 for kuznetsov at his book so he thinks the book is tipping off mahut to win 2-0. reason that this fails miserable is the fact that every book differs and all it really means is that on that particular book, a little bit more money has gone on the 2-0 for mahut than in the other matchComment -
yes, and the fact that with a 5%-min "rake" on each choice guaranteed (without risk) to a book that achieves balance on each side (by boosting the payout on the thin side/shrinking it on the fat side)...a book tends to not want to, in general form an "opinion" on a match (ie. try to steer/"trap" the public on the side that their opinion says will lose...
opinionated lines DO form from time to time, generally in hi-profile/big-$ markets...it is in essence the book gambling...if they're right (and they have succeeded to steer/trap more $ to the losing side) they score windfall $ over the basic rake (the chalk difference between the dog/fave prices)...but if they are wrong, the book loses money relative to what they'd have made with a non-opinionated line...and in some cases they may be very successful in steering money to what they thing will be the losing side...and end up actually losing money to the public when that side cashes...
it's a real headache to actually "work" a line actively according to an opinion of the future...and since there's a damn-nice rake guaranteed to them by the chalk if they automatically avoid an opinion and just balance the money passively..to the point that actively worked/opinionated lines are MUCH rarer than people imagine...and tend to be confined to the hi-profile events (such as playoff final series, tenny slams, golf majors, etc.)
so, interpreting observable price differences as books trying to steer you ACTIVELY into one side because they know it'll lose (rather than trying to steer you PASSIVELY into the thin side to help them balance the sides and thus lock in the chalk) is always an option, but it is exhausting intellectually and most often inaccurate
when there's a hugely public event, it's good to suspect steering/trapping motives behind initial line-settings and subsequent price movements...but most of the time, it's better to forget this extra layer of intrigue and concentrate on finding value in poorly-placed lines (which creates a bargain price on one side of bet)--a difficult enough undertaking on its own at the best of timesLast edited by fitguy67; 06-15-15, 08:25 PM.Comment -
French Open overall
26 - 29 +9.71uComment -
kyrgios +130
mathieu +2.5 +112
youzhny +2.5 +110
gulbis +1.5 +118
monfils/rosol under 22.5 -105
giraldo +248
Lu 1st set +552Last edited by girlscoutcookies; 06-15-15, 10:55 PM.Comment -
I would really love to hear your reasoning on that Lu 1st set +552 play. Do you think that Murray just gets off to a slow start or what???Comment -
june 17
gulbis +587
coric +600
raonic -118
wawa/anderson under 23.5 -105
karlovic/zverev under 25.5 -110Comment -
Grass Season Overall
10-12 -0.81uComment -
isner +122
verdasco +1.5 sets +217Comment -
Mayer +1.5 sets +262Comment -
anderson -1.5 sets +183
karlovic +1.5 sets +158Comment -
lopez to win nottingham +362Comment -
Grass Season Overall
11-16 -3.59uComment -
bedene -4.5 -101
soeda +243
bemelmans +194Comment -
Grass Season Overall
12-18 -4.6uComment -
cuevas +301
cuevas +1.5 sets +127
mayer -2.5 +110Comment -
French Open overall
26 - 29 +9.71u
wimbledon overall
12 - 15 +6.95u
Grass Season Overall
24 - 36 -0.65uLast edited by girlscoutcookies; 07-21-15, 09:06 AM.Comment -
kovalik -103Comment
