1. 05-04-15 03:31 AM #1
    BennyBigNuts
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    It's funny everytime you see Fognini a dog on clay you just want to pound it.....

    But you never know if the piece of shit is going to try or not
    I mean +102 today
    If this guy told me before this match hes giving 100% I'd bet my left nut on him to win a clay match
    I know Giraldo is good on clay also, but Fognini is way better if he's giving max effort, which is rare
    In 5 matches they have yet to play 3 sets vs each other also.
    Giraldo having a 3-2 edge in H2H

    What you guys think?

    I think Janowicz is the lock of the day -125 over Sousa, I'm on him heavy.
    But may put a few bucks on the Fogster just to sweat him
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  2. 05-04-15 06:23 AM #2
    gaebiskon
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    Fagnanny should only be backed as a heavy underdog

    Hes gonna give you a heart attack
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  3. 05-04-15 07:15 AM #3
    Snowball
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    Fognini is getting a little older and it appears he could have some nagging injury
    - he's not moving terribly well.. he still hits the ball great but some players are
    able to force him into movements he has trouble reaching.
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  4. 05-04-15 08:15 AM #4
    Snowball
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    Fabio hasn't looked too good since beating Nadal
    his movement is hampered
    it's possible for an early exit in Madrid
    as he preps for Rome which he cares about more.
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  5. 05-04-15 02:03 PM #5
    gaebiskon
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    Lo and behold \*\*\*\*\*\* finally won the match he should have win
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  6. 05-05-15 12:01 AM #6
    fitguy67
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    a little something a propos this, that i posted a few weeks ago in snoball's thread

    ________________________

    monfils, jerzy, fognini...if they're faves you can bet against them or pass...if they're dogs you can bet on them or pass..period

    as far as ML (including as legs in a parlay)...Forget them if they're Favorites...cuz their priorities, agendas, and motivations are far too complex for mere non-fabulously-wealthy mortals like us to understand...and makes them far too prone to self-sabotage (cuz they just don't give a fukk that day...or don't mind blowing several tens of thousands to give vent to a pouting or temper tantrum...etc. etc...)...to in any way be "relied" on...

    statistically their "ability" to perform has a mean well above the average...but the "variance" of that ability about its mean make them damn-near unbettable as favorites...neither their ranking, nor their recent form, nor their h2h against opponent-X mean near as much as it would mean for the vast majority of normal-variance/emotionally-stable players on the tour

    "which version of the player shows up" is the central variance issue...and with Monfils, Fognini and Jerzy...the distribution is far wider than with normal players...with a non-flake you know generally what you're getting, but with one of these parlay-breaking headcases you don't...
    Last edited by fitguy67; 05-05-15 at 12:10 AM.
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  7. 05-05-15 12:48 AM #7
    Jeff_Black
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    Saw this thread, saw his odds...and passed. Close but almost surely too good against Giraldo, who he can beat. Do agree with the theory though
    Silly me!
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  8. 05-06-15 03:52 AM #8
    BennyBigNuts
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    +190 vs. dmitrov today
    Gotta take him again here
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  9. 05-13-15 03:19 AM #9
    BennyBigNuts
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    +160 today on his home court vs Dmitirov?
    He really dogged that last match vs. him 2 weeks ago. He could have EASILY won.

    I'm on the Fogster here playing for his country, and on the clay.
    I love losing on this greasy guinnea
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  10. 05-13-15 03:37 AM #10
    Hardcoar
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    Define "dogged".
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  11. 05-13-15 09:27 AM #11
    BennyBigNuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Define "dogged".
    If you watched that first set Simon just played, thats the definition of "dogging" a set.
    What a fukkin choke that was
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  12. 05-13-15 04:39 PM #12
    Snowball
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    Fognini going top 10.
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  13. 05-13-15 07:31 PM #13
    BennyBigNuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by BennyBigNuts View Post
    +160 today on his home court vs Dmitirov?
    He really dogged that last match vs. him 2 weeks ago. He could have EASILY won.

    I'm on the Fogster here playing for his country, and on the clay.
    I love losing on this greasy guinnea
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Fognini going top 10.





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