It's funny everytime you see Fognini a dog on clay you just want to pound it.....

[BennyBigNuts]

But you never know if the piece of shit is going to try or not
I mean +102 today
If this guy told me before this match hes giving 100% I'd bet my left nut on him to win a clay match
I know Giraldo is good on clay also, but Fognini is way better if he's giving max effort, which is rare
In 5 matches they have yet to play 3 sets vs each other also.
Giraldo having a 3-2 edge in H2H

What you guys think?

I think Janowicz is the lock of the day -125 over Sousa, I'm on him heavy.
But may put a few bucks on the Fogster just to sweat him

[gaebiskon]

Fagnanny should only be backed as a heavy underdog

Hes gonna give you a heart attack

[Snowball]

Fognini is getting a little older and it appears he could have some nagging injury
- he's not moving terribly well.. he still hits the ball great but some players are
able to force him into movements he has trouble reaching.

[Snowball]

Fabio hasn't looked too good since beating Nadal
his movement is hampered
it's possible for an early exit in Madrid
as he preps for Rome which he cares about more.

[gaebiskon]

Lo and behold \*\*\*\*\*\* finally won the match he should have win

[fitguy67]

a little something a propos this, that i posted a few weeks ago in snoball's thread

________________________

monfils, jerzy, fognini...if they're faves you can bet against them or pass...if they're dogs you can bet on them or pass..period

as far as ML (including as legs in a parlay)...Forget them if they're Favorites...cuz their priorities, agendas, and motivations are far too complex for mere non-fabulously-wealthy mortals like us to understand...and makes them far too prone to self-sabotage (cuz they just don't give a fukk that day...or don't mind blowing several tens of thousands to give vent to a pouting or temper tantrum...etc. etc...)...to in any way be "relied" on...

statistically their "ability" to perform has a mean well above the average...but the "variance" of that ability about its mean make them damn-near unbettable as favorites...neither their ranking, nor their recent form, nor their h2h against opponent-X mean near as much as it would mean for the vast majority of normal-variance/emotionally-stable players on the tour

"which version of the player shows up" is the central variance issue...and with Monfils, Fognini and Jerzy...the distribution is far wider than with normal players...with a non-flake you know generally what you're getting, but with one of these parlay-breaking headcases you don't...

[Jeff_Black]

Saw this thread, saw his odds...and passed. Close but almost surely too good against Giraldo, who he can beat. Do agree with the theory though
Silly me!

[BennyBigNuts]

+190 vs. dmitrov today
Gotta take him again here

[BennyBigNuts]

+160 today on his home court vs Dmitirov?
He really dogged that last match vs. him 2 weeks ago. He could have EASILY won.

I'm on the Fogster here playing for his country, and on the clay.
I love losing on this greasy guinnea

[Hardcoar]

Define "dogged".

[BennyBigNuts]

Define "dogged".

If you watched that first set Simon just played, thats the definition of "dogging" a set.
What a fukkin choke that was

[Snowball]

Fognini going top 10.

[BennyBigNuts]

+160 today on his home court vs Dmitirov?
He really dogged that last match vs. him 2 weeks ago. He could have EASILY won.

I'm on the Fogster here playing for his country, and on the clay.
I love losing on this greasy guinnea

Fognini going top 10.

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