THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Fourth Pickin'-Thread <3

[Hardcoar]

Yeah I wish I hadn't missed the match, but it doesn't seem to have been spectacular by any means. Do you know how the conditions were today?

I like what you said about Fit's question too, thanks for chipping in!

[Hardcoar]

Hewitt @ 6 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Wawrinka -4 @ 2.11 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Total hits: 22
Total mishits: 31
Total stake: 189u
Net yield: +32.412u
ROI: +17.15 % (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Sijsling @ 1.671 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[fitguy67]

Calibre, status and reptuation, as well as wins over popular names... rangng from the likes of Ivanovic and Venus Williams to many others.

Ontop of this, she owns multiple WTA tour titles and experience over a period in the game. Puig on the other hand is very much still a rookie with liittle experience on the big stage, no WTA titles or finals and in mediocre form.

got it...when you're only 28ish, being 8 years older is definitely an advantage, especially psychologically...you're less likely to crack under pressure (simply because you've had the experience of cracking/not-cracking and learning from it several times over vs. an essentially a younger version of yourself)

[Hardcoar]

I hope you didn't miss the fact I was attempting to relay: Vesnina is defending champion at this tournament.

[Hardcoar]

Rosol -2.5 @ evens – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Roger-Vasselin @ 3.26 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[fitguy67]

I hope you didn't miss the fact I was attempting to relay: Vesnina is defending champion at this tournament.

that registered too...between 25th and 56th you really couldn't slide a piece of paper between the skill levels...
but the difference between a 28yo successful campaigner and an 8-years-younger version is huge...because of intangibles like this ("having been there, done that" and, even more dramatically, "having been there, WON that")

a tournament that you've WON before (not merely are now trying to win) sends really strong confidence-/character-vibes...far far stronger than any sorts of positive visualization exercises you might be practicing...the difference between a wooden leg for your table and a paper one...

i'm really glad i asked my question...fascinating how "intangibles" can cause such a large very-tangible difference in price

[Hardcoar]

Groth @ 4.16 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Volandri @ 3.88 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

that registered too...between 25th and 56th you really couldn't slide a piece of paper between the skill levels...
but the difference between a 28yo successful campaigner and an 8-years-younger version is huge...because of intangibles like this ("having been there, done that" and, even more dramatically, "having been there, WON that")

a tournaments that you've WON before (not merely are now trying to win) sends really strong confidence-/character-vibes...far far stronger than any sorts of positive visualization exercises you might be practicing...the difference between a wooden leg for your table and a paper one...

i'm really glad i asked my question...fascinating how "intangibles" can cause such a large very-tangible difference in price

I think you're missing the point:

When you have progressed in a tournament one year, the next year you lose ranking points unless you progress at least as far, and nothing means more to nerds of any kind than pixelpoints. What this means is Vesnina will be extremely motivated. This information is invaluable in tennis (betting) because with the individual and psychological nature of the game, motivation is one of the most important factors there are, and one of the most difficult to discern too.

[Hardcoar]

Goerges +1.5 sets @ 2.73 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Duval 1:st @ 3.4 – 4 units (Bet365)

[Hardcoar]

Cabeza-Candela 1:st @ 2.92 – 2 units (Pinnacle)

[fitguy67]

I think you're missing the point:

When you have progressed in a tournament one year, the next year you lose ranking points unless you progress at least as far, and nothing means more to nerds of any kind than pixelpoints. What this means is Vesnina will be extremely motivated. This information is invaluable in tennis (betting) because with the individual and psychological nature of the game, motivation is one of the most important factors there are, and one of the most difficult to discern too.

damn, now that's something useful to know...that i bet a surprising number of tennis bettors don't know...

these sorts of motivational factors, affecting financial and/or reputation/legacy concerns, are crucial, especially in INDIVIDUAL (as opposed to team) sports

and understanding these sorts of "behind the scenes" institutional realities will help us to guage garden-variety motivation (aka. "trying harder")...as well as the grey-to-black versions of motivation (aka. bending/breaking rules, culminating in the extreme case of match "fixing")...

this reminded me of a fascinating chapter on Sumo-wrestling in the famous best-seller "Freakonomics" (by an unusually-sharp economist named Levitt and a journalist co-author)...in which they show clearly that wrestlers "on the bubble" (=7-7 in a major tournament and to be relegated if they lose their next match) perform FAR, shall we say "differently" than if they weren't...and that there's more than white-market "one guy trying harder" involved...there's tacit collusion as--amazingly enough--wrestlers perform FAR differently if their opponent (not they themselves...just their opponent) is on the bubble...but guess what: if both guys are on the bubble, or neither of them are...performance in the 15th match conforms to their historical/statistical norms (no motivation to cheat=no evidence of cheating)...if you haven't read this particular book (note: there've been countless sequels and copies) it's right up your alley

[ClutchOnandWin]

got it...when you're only 28ish, being 8 years older is definitely an advantage, especially psychologically...you're less likely to crack under pressure (simply because you've had the experience of cracking/not-cracking and learning from it several times over vs. an essentially a younger version of yourself)

Yeah. Basically.

Also, being defending champion means in tennis she has to defend he points, or her ranking drops. (I didn't check how she'd done, but that is very important because you know she's going to be motivated and the bookies know too)

[ClutchOnandWin]

Basically yeah fitguy, you're getting the picture, slowly.

Whereas in NFL, NBA and baseball.... the odds on teams are primarily dictated by recent form, that really is NEVER the case in tennis. IN tennis it takes a lot of good/bad form or results to cause the bookies to shift in their assesment of what they make a player and rightfully so.

For example a decent team in the NBA, the denver nuggets would generally be huge favourite at home to the grizzlies considering both teams quality this season, however as the nuggets had one or two dodgy results or so here and there, the bookies gave the grizlies respect at home. Whereas before their dodgy results they were -13 to beat team's like the grizzlies at home for even money odds. lol

In tennis there's the following critera's:

Talent/Ability
Surface - Nadal would not have been 1.4 to beat Monfils last week on a claycourt, he was on a hardcourt.
Motivation Home country, or even town to make it even more influential, or ofcourse defending points.
Form

It ranks in that order^^^^^^^^^^^^

The only time form becomes more important according to a bookie trader is when it's drastically good or bad. All these factors accumulated by data. Data from records on the surface and who they've beaten on the surface. Data from records at home and who they've beaten at home.

The way to get the edge in tennis is by catching the bookies out on what they do not, DO NOT use to weigh up odds on markets.

These are the following:

Record against left handed players
Fatigue
Injury concerns

^These factors only play into market odds once the punters have got their hands on odds and cause shifts to occur.

[Hardcoar]

Mahut @ 1.935 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[ClutchOnandWin]

Mahut @ 1.935 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

Now it's my turn. lol

Why?

[Hardcoar]

He should be able to beat Harrison any day of the week, and these odds are an absolute gift. My only concern is his Frenchiness.

[ClutchOnandWin]

He should be able to beat Harrison any day of the week, and these odds are an absolute gift. My only concern is his Frenchiness.

Dig deeper. Why?

[matt1216]

He should be able to beat Harrison any day of the week, and these odds are an absolute gift. My only concern is his Frenchiness.

I was shaking my head on this play last night. Very suprised they open Muhut near a pickem. I hope they pay for there mistake

[JNic]

Again you guys are hating on Harrison when he shows up and has won 6 matches this year… You don't know Mahut's determination level while Harrison is clearly taking every Sydney match like a grand slam final cause he's defending points. Harrison can hold serve every single time against Mahut on a good day and vice versa so I agree with this pick em especially cause Harrison likes a target at net

[ClutchOnandWin]

Again you guys are hating on Harrison when he shows up and has won 6 matches this year… You don't know Mahut's determination level while Harrison is clearly taking every Sydney match like a grand slam final cause he's defending points. Harrison can hold serve every single time against Mahut on a good day and vice versa so I agree with this pick em especially cause Harrison likes a target at net

Since when was that?

I think you're showing your American bias here. If Mahut is on, he'll beat Harrison imo, but like you say, we just don't know. I've seen neither play thus far this season because I like to be asleep at 3am. lol

Winning 6 matches this year isn't an overwelming stat, he could have played all poor players for all we know. As it was he played half decent players, but none that great. Not buying the Harrison love. Bogomolov would probably had beaten him had the court's not been so fast. Mahut has weapons. Not touching this but no idea why you have such love for him, I'm sort of sure if you were not an American you wouldn't be hyping like this.

[Hardcoar]

Dig deeper. Why?

Mainly because he's by far the superior, more talented and experienced player. Harrison will struggle mightily with Mahut's serve and even defending against his heavy forehands. The only downside I see to this bet is that Mahut's French-Canadian.

[ClutchOnandWin]

Mainly because he's by far the superior, more talented and experienced player. Harrison will struggle mightily with Mahut's serve and even defending against his heavy forehands. The only downside I see to this bet is that Mahut's French-Canadian.

Typically Mahut is good indoors and on grass, outdoor hardcorut's less so because of either wind and hot weather, however these court's are fast and if he has a good serving day I fancy him to play better on the big points. The experience of winning 2 atp titles last season is priceless for those big points where he won't feel one bit anxious as this is nothing to him. Ryan will feel anxious and not make the serves under pressure. Neither are great return of servers but I feel Harrison is more prone to shooting himself in the foot when Mahut blocks serves back.

Agree with what you say, more talented and experienced.

[ClutchOnandWin]

Chardy played pretty well against Federer as well, so we can't go assuming Mahut was crap.

Dunno though, I'll just watch this one play out.

Best of luck.

[JNic]

Since when was that?

I think you're showing your American bias here. If Mahut is on, he'll beat Harrison imo, but like you say, we just don't know. I've seen neither play thus far this season because I like to be asleep at 3am. lol

Winning 6 matches this year isn't an overwelming stat, he could have played all poor players for all we know. As it was he played half decent players, but none that great. Not buying the Harrison love. Bogomolov would probably had beaten him had the court's not been so fast. Mahut has weapons. Not touching this but no idea why you have such love for him, I'm sort of sure if you were not an American you wouldn't be hyping like this.

No I don't like Harrison or his game, I don't like USA tennis at all either except I root for Kudla and I hope Klahn can break top 50 one day, I'm not betting on that match, I'm just trying to give the alternate point of view since it seems every time Harrison plays this year ppl pick him to lose

[ClutchOnandWin]

Fair enough then.

[Hardcoar]

Mahut @ 2.14 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[ClutchOnandWin]

Mahut @ 2.14 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

20 units on mahut?

[matt1216]

Don't worry about the line fellas. Wish I got it @ 2.04. A lot of people have no clue who Mahut is

[Hardcoar]

Hell yeah brah... let's dig ourselves a hole!

[stepanekslips]

Mahut should at least be 2.25 but its cool that you guys think you got a good deal!

[suicidekings]

Up to +118 now and still moving. What did this line open at?

And does anyone know where to find line history for tennis? SBRodds tennis line tracking is pathetic.