THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Fourth Pickin'-Thread <3

[Hardcoar]

Friedsam @ 3.4 – 3 units (Bet365)

KEXX

Panova 1:st @ 3 – 2 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Kudryavtseva 1:st @ 5.5 – 4 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Riske 1:st @ 4 – 3 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Kokkinakis @ evens – 4 units (Bet365)

KEXX

Mladenovic 1:st @ 5 – 4 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Cornet @ 5.61 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Tomljanovic @ evens – 2 units (Ladbrokes)
Tomljanovic 2-0 @ 3.5 – 2 units (William Hill)

FUXX
FUXX

Svitolina @ 6.5 – 5 units (Bet365)

FUXX

S. Williams 2-1 @ 7 – 1 unit (William Hill)

FUXX

Fichman @ 3.25 – 4 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Ishizu 1:st @ 3 – 3 units (Bet365)

KEXX

Knapp 2-1 @ 4.33 – 3 units (Ladbrokes)

FUXX

Tomic -3.5 @ evens – 3 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Evans 1:st @ 3.75 – 5 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Sugita 2-1 @ 5 – 3 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Dimitrov @ 1.67 – 5 units (William Hill)
Dimitrov 2-0 @ 2.75 – 4 units (William Hill)

FUXX
FUXX

Kokkinakis 1:st @ 3.25 – 5 units (Bet365)
Kokkinakis 2-0 @ 7 – 3 units (Ladbrokes)

FUXX
FUXX

Gojowczyk 2-0 @ 4.2 – 4 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Bhambri 2-0 @ 4.2 – 3 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Laaksonen @ 2.25 – 5 units (Ladbrokes)
Laaksonen 2-0 @ 4 – 3 units (William Hill)

FUXX
FUXX

Gojowczyk @ 2.3 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Morita @ 1.67 – 4 units (William Hill)

FUXX

Davydenko -1.5 @ 2.1 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Total hits: 10
Total mishits: 22
Total stake: 108u
Net yield: -11.1u
ROI: -10.28 % (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Groth 1:st @ 3.4 – 4 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Garcia-Lopez 2-0 @ 4 – 2 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Ivanovic 2-0 @ 1.5 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Radwanska @ 1.556 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
Radwanska -3 @ 2.17 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Ivanovic -5.5 @ 1.833 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Hewitt @ 1.67 – 4 units (William Hill)
Hewitt 2-0 @ 2.75 – 4 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Cepelova @ 2.77 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Panfil @ 5.07 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Braun @ 1.833 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Nadal -4.5 @ 2.9 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Groth 1:st @ 3.4 – 4 units (William Hill)

SUXX

Garcia-Lopez 2-0 @ 4 – 2 units (William Hill)

FUXX

Ivanovic 2-0 @ 1.5 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Radwanska @ 1.556 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
Radwanska -3 @ 2.17 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX
FUXX

Ivanovic -5.5 @ 1.833 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Hewitt @ 1.67 – 4 units (William Hill)
Hewitt 2-0 @ 2.75 – 4 units (William Hill)

KEXX
KEXX

Cepelova @ 2.77 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Panfil @ 5.07 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Braun @ 1.833 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Nadal -4.5 @ 2.9 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Total hits: 15
Total mishits: 28
Total stake: 149u
Net yield: -13.364u
ROI: -8.97 % (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Pella @ 1.667 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Granollers @ 2.36 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Mayer @ 3.88 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Ivanovic 1:st @ 1.752 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Ivanovic 2-1 @ 4.3 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Cornet @ 6.13 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[matt1216]

hey, what's up with Granollers only 1.87 vs Vasseline? I figured 1.70 would be where it should be. Any thoughts?

[Hardcoar]

It's about 50/50 for me, but Granollers is the slight favorite, yes. It's gonna be a no-bet.

[Hardcoar]

Nadal 2-1 @ 4.33 up the ass – 4 units (Ladbrokes)

[Hardcoar]

Granollers 1:st @ 2.03 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Pella @ 1.667 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Granollers @ 2.36 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Mayer @ 3.88 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Ivanovic 1:st @ 1.752 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Ivanovic 2-1 @ 4.3 – 3 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Cornet @ 6.13 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Nadal 2-1 @ 4.33 up the ass – 4 units (Ladbrokes)

KEXX

Granollers 1:st @ 2.03 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Total hits: 20
Total mishits: 31
Total stake: 181u
Net yield: +7.972u
ROI: +4.4 % (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Hewitt @ 6 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Wawrinka -4 @ 2.11 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[STAY STRONG]

In it to win it.

[brandoc]

Show us your record Hardcoar you cocksucking piece of shit... Your tennis plays suck big giant elephant testicles that have been marinated in your fat mum's guava juice.

[Hardcoar]

Show us your record Hardcoar you cocksucking piece of shit... Your tennis plays suck big giant elephant testicles that have been marinated in your fat mum's guava juice.

You know it!

[fitguy67]

Hewitt @ 6 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

Pow...hits like this make the mishits worthwhile...love the value-at-any-price (but most often occurring on what Crazy Americans call "plus money" selections) focus...and the ROI-based accounting of it all...(i appreciate how you intentionally don't even bother to calculate the hit%)

i'd rather play a hi-variance slot machine with a lo-percentage of winning spins AND a 105% payout...than blackjack with a 99.54% payout

you, sir are that hi-variance, lo-hit% AND hi-ROI slot machine...and we get plenty enough spins on most days to make the very-bumpy $-ride fun...

[Hardcoar]

So you're saying you were on Hewitt as well?
^

[fitguy67]

yeah, i blind-tail you on tennis...try to not miss any...play everything to win 1 substantial-sized unit...i don't mind when the big dog-plays misfire because their tickets are so cheap (just 1/5th of a unit on Hewitt play, for example)...but when they hit all the pain endured waiting becomes worthwhile...

you have a long enough track record for me to know that your plays are coming from a clearly-positive %ROI...the up and down $-swings both come with the same package of following your plays...the pleasure-pain-pleasure cycle of winning days leading to new peaks followed by losing spells that eventually end when a nice run blasts you to yet-another $-peak (at which point i like to up-adjust my $-definition of unit)

apart from MMA, i don't concern myself too much with the sports side of the sports-betting...(in fact i loathe basketball and football, but once i've identified a source of value plays...I'll actively bet them, along with sports i'm ambivalent about such as soccer, hockey, rugby)...you're my one-stop-shop for long-term-value tennis plays (it's a sport i don't loathe, and will actually watch from time to time)...you don't have to be able to generate value-plays yourself to make money in this game...just recognize them when you see them...

i do my own MMA, but for everything else...i've become an expert in recognizing and appreciating the good guys to tailgate in each sport...you're my main guy for tennis, so i follow along with my own bet-sizing protocol and feel all the pain of the losses and all the pleasure of the wins...so was just saying thanks for letting me and others tail along

[fitguy67]

i am trying to get the feel of what you tennis cappers do tho', so here's a question...

why do you suppose Vesnina is such a favorite compared to Puig on Monday?

i use tennis explorer to suss plays out... http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1152872

1.50 on Vesnina is surprising to my uneducated eye (25th vs. 56th ranking and a loss in their one 3-set H2H match that went 7-6, 1-6, 7-5 for Puig, which is a dead heat 15-16 in the games department)

[ClutchOnandWin]

i am trying to get the feel of what you tennis cappers do tho', so here's a question...

why do you suppose Vesnina is such a favorite compared to Puig on Monday?

i use tennis explorer to suss plays out... http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1152872

1.50 on Vesnina is surprising to my uneducated eye (25th vs. 56th ranking and a loss in their one 3-set H2H match that went 7-6, 1-6, 7-5 for Puig, which is a dead heat 15-16 in the games department)

Calibre, status and reptuation, as well as wins over popular names... rangng from the likes of Ivanovic and Venus Williams to many others.

Ontop of this, she owns multiple WTA tour titles and experience over a period in the game. Puig on the other hand is very much still a rookie with liittle experience on the big stage, no WTA titles or finals and in mediocre form.

[ClutchOnandWin]

See you went with Hewitt in the end too Hardcoar. Good hit.

[Hardcoar]

i am trying to get the feel of what you tennis cappers do tho', so here's a question...

why do you suppose Vesnina is such a favorite compared to Puig on Monday?

i use tennis explorer to suss plays out... http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1152872

1.50 on Vesnina is surprising to my uneducated eye (25th vs. 56th ranking and a loss in their one 3-set H2H match that went 7-6, 1-6, 7-5 for Puig, which is a dead heat 15-16 in the games department)

I personally prefer Matchstat: http://www.matchstat.com/AllFixtures/

It is surprising, particularly given the one match Puig has already had this season. I'd be lying if I said I knew too much about these players, but Vesnina is by all means deserved favorite, although I will admit it would seem Puig @ 3 holds some value. It might have quite a bit to do with this as well:

http://www.matchstat.com/index.php?ControllerName=Event&Params=-8404&SHOW=S+H+O+W

If you're able to use Ladbrokes I'd recommend 2-1 Vesnina @ 4.33.