Giving this theory a shot....

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  • matt1216
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-27-11
    • 14683

    #1
    Giving this theory a shot....
    Im making a wager on 1st set winners. Im trying to pick letdown situations, and surface changes

    ex) mayer wins first set vs Delgopolov today. Today was Dolgopolovs first match on clay in awhile where as F.Mayer has played a couple matches. Tennis form being the point. This went 2-0 today as Tursonov took out Chardy as a decent dog as well.

    Here are my picks for tomorrow ATP Hamburg:

    Guillerme lopez 1st set +150 vs Youhzny
    Ramos 1set +125 vs Fognini**** just hoping Fognini starts lazy
    Granollers 1st set +120vs Seppi*** seppi hasnt played in a few weeks

    Struffj 1st set +140 vs F.Lopez**** Lopez last match was wimbeldon.
    Delbonis 1st set +145 vs Robredo



    bol!
  • MagicDiceFlow
    SBR MVP
    • 01-15-12
    • 4585

    #2
    I like that Delbonis bet. He's been in some strong form lately.
    Comment
    • matt1216
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-27-11
      • 14683

      #3
      Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow
      I like that Delbonis bet. He's been in some strong form lately.
      I wanted to take the others for full wagers, but as dogs if they cant win the first set, i doubt they would win the match anyhow. Really just hoping for 3/5 .
      Comment
      • lucasdawg
        SBR MVP
        • 02-19-13
        • 3399

        #4
        i like your struff pick
        Comment
        • ohdecas
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 06-12-13
          • 539

          #5
          Thank you for Delbonis pick..
          Comment
          • MagicDiceFlow
            SBR MVP
            • 01-15-12
            • 4585

            #6
            Delbonis smoked Robredo that first set......nice win.
            Comment
            • matt1216
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-27-11
              • 14683

              #7
              Thanks granollers just hit as well 2/2 so far.... 5 picks just need 1 more...
              Comment
              • MagicDiceFlow
                SBR MVP
                • 01-15-12
                • 4585

                #8
                I put a couple of units on Struff at +150 right before tip off. The youngster has a good chance against Lopez here.
                Comment
                • matt1216
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-27-11
                  • 14683

                  #9
                  Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow
                  I put a couple of units on Struff at +150 right before tip off. The youngster has a good chance against Lopez here.
                  Yes he does... Lets hope he does well!
                  i also had Granollers to beat Seppi full game! Suprised he held up
                  Comment
                  • MagicDiceFlow
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-15-12
                    • 4585

                    #10
                    I like this Struff kid. Big lanky 6 foot 5 but with good movement and great touch for a big man. Reminds me of an unrefined version of Janowicz......still raw but good potential.
                    Comment
                    • ohumad
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-19-12
                      • 2298

                      #11
                      So far so good with the theory
                      Comment
                      • lucasdawg
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-19-13
                        • 3399

                        #12
                        struff just stuffed that set all up..
                        Comment
                        • matt1216
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 10-27-11
                          • 14683

                          #13
                          Originally posted by matt1216
                          Im making a wager on 1st set winners. Im trying to pick letdown situations, and surface changes

                          ex) mayer wins first set vs Delgopolov today. Today was Dolgopolovs first match on clay in awhile where as F.Mayer has played a couple matches. Tennis form being the point. This went 2-0 today as Tursonov took out Chardy as a decent dog as well.

                          Here are my picks for tomorrow ATP Hamburg:

                          Guillerme lopez 1st set +150 vs Youhzny
                          Ramos 1set +125 vs Fognini**** just hoping Fognini starts lazy
                          Granollers 1st set +120vs Seppi*** seppi hasnt played in a few weeks

                          Struffj 1st set +140 vs F.Lopez**** Lopez last match was wimbeldon.
                          Delbonis 1st set +145 vs Robredo



                          bol!
                          So far 3/4 on this with 1 remaining. Struff choked serving for the set or it would have been 4/4. Considering this is all+$$$$ i guess chokes are inevidable. Go Ramos! Ill post tickets when i get home from work if anyone is interested.

                          Bol guys
                          Comment
                          • matt1216
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-27-11
                            • 14683

                            #14
                            Originally posted by lucasdawg
                            struff just stuffed that set all up..
                            Ya Shoulda seen Lopez catching on quick. Tough to see it coming tho
                            Comment
                            • matt1216
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-27-11
                              • 14683

                              #15
                              Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow
                              I like this Struff kid. Big lanky 6 foot 5 but with good movement and great touch for a big man. Reminds me of an unrefined version of Janowicz......still raw but good potential.

                              Ya this guy will be good next year!
                              Comment
                              • matt1216
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 10-27-11
                                • 14683

                                #16
                                Well 3/5 all at + $$$$$ Ramos was a mistake. I forgot Foginin just came off a clay tourney
                                Comment
                                • ParlayininHTown
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 06-27-10
                                  • 7561

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by matt1216
                                  Well 3/5 all at + $$$$$ Ramos was a mistake. I forgot Foginin just came off a clay tourney

                                  I like what you're doing here, Matt. Good work. Maybe I should give it a shot. It worked much better than taking seven dogs straight up like I did.

                                  Ramos ML was a bigger mistake on my part. Barring an epic comeback, I will need Bautista-Agut to upset Verdasco or it's a 3-4 day with the dogs in Hamburg. Not a good feeling to be up less than $20 when you hit on three underdogs and the only tourney left to bet on is the Copa Coca ... errr, I meant Claro.

                                  Pinche Ramos
                                  Comment
                                  • matt1216
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 10-27-11
                                    • 14683

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by ParlayininHTown
                                    I like what you're doing here, Matt. Good work. Maybe I should give it a shot. It worked much better than taking seven dogs straight up like I did.

                                    Ramos ML was a bigger mistake on my part. Barring an epic comeback, I will need Bautista-Agut to upset Verdasco or it's a 3-4 day with the dogs in Hamburg. Not a good feeling to be up less than $20 when you hit on three underdogs and the only tourney left to bet on is the Copa Coca ... errr, I meant Claro.

                                    Pinche Ramos
                                    I find these tourneys always have 1 bog dog day. Not easy to predict. Ill see what i can spot for tomorrow. U fortunately everyone will have had a match on clay by tomorrow. Could be back to Favs winning
                                    Comment
                                    • matt1216
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-27-11
                                      • 14683

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ParlayininHTown
                                      I like what you're doing here, Matt. Good work. Maybe I should give it a shot. It worked much better than taking seven dogs straight up like I did.

                                      Ramos ML was a bigger mistake on my part. Barring an epic comeback, I will need Bautista-Agut to upset Verdasco or it's a 3-4 day with the dogs in Hamburg. Not a good feeling to be up less than $20 when you hit on three underdogs and the only tourney left to bet on is the Copa Coca ... errr, I meant Claro.

                                      Pinche Ramos
                                      Hasse to take first set off Janowicz. Jano to comeback and win tho in 3 sets.
                                      Comment
                                      • MagicDiceFlow
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-15-12
                                        • 4585

                                        #20
                                        Nice job today on the theory picks.
                                        Comment
                                        • matt1216
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-27-11
                                          • 14683

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow
                                          Nice job today on the theory picks.
                                          Thanks man! I have 1 more for today
                                          Comment
                                          • matt1216
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 10-27-11
                                            • 14683

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by matt1216
                                            Hasse to take first set off Janowicz. Jano to comeback and win tho in 3 sets.
                                            Hasse 1st set win +175 vs Janowicz *** theres a shot here that Jano may start slow
                                            Karlovic 1 set win +130 vs Sjsling ***** this rule applys. Sjsling coming off grass.
                                            Comment
                                            • Hardcoar
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 02-17-13
                                              • 15606

                                              #23
                                              Jerzy!? Janowicz!!? Start slow!!!?
                                              Comment
                                              • joco
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 04-24-11
                                                • 3242

                                                #24
                                                both of those look good. for some reason i dont have 1st set bets on todays games on my book but if i did i would play both of those for the chance at + money...best of luck matt
                                                Comment
                                                • matt1216
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-27-11
                                                  • 14683

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by joco
                                                  both of those look good. for some reason i dont have 1st set bets on todays games on my book but if i did i would play both of those for the chance at + money...best of luck matt
                                                  Thanks man. I think Karlovic wins if that helps
                                                  Comment
                                                  • matt1216
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 10-27-11
                                                    • 14683

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by matt1216
                                                    Thanks man. I think Karlovic wins if that helps
                                                    There we go Karlovic @+140 wins plus he won first set @+120

                                                    lets go giraldo! Finish off that parlay with Verdasco
                                                    Comment
                                                    • joco
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 04-24-11
                                                      • 3242

                                                      #27
                                                      awesome...i took karlovic..very nice call
                                                      Comment
                                                      • matt1216
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-27-11
                                                        • 14683

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by joco
                                                        awesome...i took karlovic..very nice call
                                                        Thanks dude, i think thats it for dogs today. 6-7 dogs came thru today.




                                                        gl
                                                        Comment
                                                        • matt1216
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 10-27-11
                                                          • 14683

                                                          #29
                                                          Monaco+ Almagro -110 risk 100 to win 89$

                                                          i like Manaco here. He played Paire and lost in 3 sets last time out. Remember, Monaco was in horrible form and still won a set. Paire won his first match but it was against Montanes. Montanes came off his first win in 6 games and still only lost 6-4 6-4 to Paire. All in all i think the win for Monaco will give him confidence moving forward. Both players can be flakes but i will take my chances on Monacos baseline game and the fact that theres points to defend here
                                                          Im taking Almagro tomorrow because he was steady in his first match. Garcia won his first match but had solid problems vs Youzny. Youzny is not a great clay court player. I see almagro in straight sets here

                                                          Bol
                                                          Comment
                                                          • kenz
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-09-12
                                                            • 4879

                                                            #30
                                                            You forgot to mention Monaco also struggled in the first set and had a very tough time when it was 1-4 15-40 in his service.

                                                            My pick is Paire +1.5 sets @1.55
                                                            Comment
                                                            • matt1216
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-27-11
                                                              • 14683

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by kenz
                                                              You forgot to mention Monaco also struggled in the first set and had a very tough time when it was 1-4 15-40 in his service.

                                                              My pick is Paire +1.5 sets @1.55
                                                              against Monfilis, who is in better form than Paire at the moment
                                                              Comment
                                                              • kenz
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-09-12
                                                                • 4879

                                                                #32
                                                                Monfils is not in better form than Paire

                                                                Paire is not a bad player on clay.

                                                                Monaco is not a good server, is a stressful player who puts unnecessary pressure on himself, sometimes never plays risky and does not hit some deep returns, has very poor drop shots, not very succesful on saving break points, and a bad tie break player.

                                                                some books now has Paire as low as @2.20s

                                                                I think yours is not the most valueable pick in the game but good luck
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Allen24
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 02-15-10
                                                                  • 857

                                                                  #33
                                                                  this parlay wont hit sorry matt you just donated 100 dollars to someone or some book
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • kenz
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-09-12
                                                                    • 4879

                                                                    #34
                                                                    By the way congratulations on your method! Maybe you could use that in Hajek and Brands games too though

                                                                    Monaco wont defend his points here lose 500 and will be world number 30 after this week, when he was 10 last year.

                                                                    And it is not unlikely that he will lose today
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • matt1216
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 10-27-11
                                                                      • 14683

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Allen24
                                                                      this parlay wont hit sorry matt you just donated 100 dollars to someone or some book
                                                                      Yet another who has no clue
                                                                      Comment
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