Proposed letter to Topbet--how can I get my potential $30k out?

**Akajason18** · 12-09-13, 01:07 AM

i dont think they would as they are hoping FSU wins.. but keep us posted

**OnkelChris** · 12-09-13, 01:53 AM

If you hedge you would only put money at risk with a book known for stiffing players for more than 1M $ in the past.

**lovetobet** · 12-09-13, 02:51 AM

Huh, why does 2000-1 seem crazy high?

**petac** · 12-09-13, 10:55 AM

2000-1? That does not seem right.

**dimaggio8** · 12-09-13, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by lovetobet

Huh, why does 2000-1 seem crazy high?

I was going to say, great job of getting 2000-1. But FSU is clearly the favorite in the National Championship game.

**petac** · 12-09-13, 12:02 PM

If this was me, I would clear the issue the odds are correct. The last thing you want any sportsbook to do is scream bad line after you win. Then about hedging, you just need to take $20,000 and bet FSU on the moneyline to win $6500 or so (whatever the moneyline is). This way you win $6500 if FSU wins , minues the cost of auburn bet. And if Auburn wins, your in the green 10k.

**biggie12** · 12-09-13, 01:03 PM

read my post in ur first thread.

If you are dealing with Futurebet. You are getting taken for $15.00 u will not recieve a penny if u win. Futurebet owes me over 100k from 2007

**luvnpeas** · 12-09-13, 01:41 PM

I'm not sure what you mean about the odds being correct. They posted the odds. I placed three wagers on it (2 at 2500-1 and 1 at 1000-1) on different dates. They had higher odds on Oregon State (5000-1) and had no problem taking my money.

To be clear, I placed these bets back in late October.

I just think FSU is a smart bet right now. They're around 8-point favorites, or 3-1. To me, that's the best line going among the bowl games at the moment. I'm mainly wondering if it is smart to put more real cash into Topbet in order to hedge.

SBR upgraded Topbet to a C and removed them from the blacklist. It seems like Topbet is trying to build a business and a reputation.... not sure how to proceed.

(BTW, does anybody else think Colts at home by only 6 over Texans is ridiculously low?)

**luvnpeas** · 12-09-13, 01:56 PM

Other long-shot odds Topbet offered at this time, and that I bet on and lost: Louisville, Clemson, Texas Tech. These were all 500:1 odds.

**luvnpeas** · 12-09-13, 02:02 PM

Well, I sent Topbet the email.

**chilidog** · 12-09-13, 02:15 PM

interested to see what topbet says about this, since you'd effectively be hedging the bet anyway

**rangerz2478** · 12-09-13, 03:11 PM

How in the world are your $12,000 worth of Auburn wagers worth anywhere near $5,000? If your Auburn payout is $12,000, your bet is worth $3,000 range assuming -300. ($9000-$3000)

So no, they won't give you 5 grand.

**rangerz2478** · 12-09-13, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by lovetobet

Huh, why does 2000-1 seem crazy high?

They had 0 conference wins last year. If anything, 2000-1 seems low.

**rangerz2478** · 12-09-13, 03:14 PM

To the OP, I may be misunderstanding your total payout as you threw a couple different figures out there, but whatever your total Auburn payout is, they are worth roughly 1/4th of that at a -300 hedge.

**petac** · 12-09-13, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by biggie12

read my post in ur first thread.

If you are dealing with Futurebet. You are getting taken for $15.00 u will not recieve a penny if u win. Futurebet owes me over 100k from 2007

Wow, that sucks!!!!

**luvnpeas** · 12-09-13, 04:48 PM

I type in $12505 into the Auburn "To Win" field, and the "Bet" amount comes up as $5575.00. Thus, the right to $12,505 if Auburn wins is currently selling for $5575.00. Auburn is +225 at Topbet (+7.5 spread).

I just realized, this is includes their commission, so I should have subtracted 10%.

**luvnpeas** · 12-09-13, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by biggie12

read my post in ur first thread.

If you are dealing with Futurebet. You are getting taken for $15.00 u will not recieve a penny if u win. Futurebet owes me over 100k from 2007

$100k is a lot of money. Can't you find a lawyer wherever Futurebet is incorporated, and offer half of any collection?

That's what I'm thinking of doing if Topbet tries to rip me off.

**biggie12** · 12-09-13, 05:06 PM

i am in a group of people that they owe over 100k to. its not 100k just to me.

Back in 2007 they owed out over 500k to poker site owners/ players. can only imagine what that number has grown to.

Lawyer? good luck

google futurebet or futurebet poker pryamid.

**rangerz2478** · 12-09-13, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by luvnpeas

I type in $12505 into the Auburn "To Win" field, and the "Bet" amount comes up as $5575.00. Thus, the right to $12,505 if Auburn wins is currently selling for $5575.00. Auburn is +225 at Topbet (+7.5 spread).

I just realized, this is includes their commission, so I should have subtracted 10%.

That's nowhere near the way it works dude.

First off, you need to work with the Florida State ML price, not the Auburn price. If you are "selling" you are selling at the current FSU price, not the Auburn price. Secondly, your bet is worth the PAYOUT if it wins. Therefore, a hedge is matching payouts. You need to take the current FSU price (-300 ballpark) to equal the $12,000 payout. That is what you would be doing on a hedge.

Even using your numbers (which are wrong) you would be betting $5575 to $12,505 which would leave the extra $5575 left over. This is completely incorrect.

**DAVEYCROCKET** · 12-09-13, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by biggie12

i am in a group of people that they owe over 100k to. its not 100k just to me.

Back in 2007 they owed out over 500k to poker site owners/ players. can only imagine what that number has grown to.

Lawyer? good luck

google futurebet or futurebet poker pryamid.

wow never even heard of them???

**rangerz2478** · 12-09-13, 05:16 PM

Lets just use your $12,000 payout as an example. IF Florida State was currently even money to win, THEN your bet would be worth $6,000. ($6,000 to $6,000 hedged to equal your $12,000 payout) Unfortunately for you, Florida State is nowhere near even, they are -300. Therefore your $12,000 Auburn bet is worth $3,000 if its sold. (9,000-3,000 on the hedge)

**DAVEYCROCKET** · 12-09-13, 05:19 PM

any BTW congrats on even pulling the trigger on auburn. hope they win and you get paid!

**rangerz2478** · 12-09-13, 05:20 PM

If your total Auburn payouts are $30,000, then you in theory could sell for roughly $7500 if the current FSU price is -300.

**luvnpeas** · 12-09-13, 06:00 PM

I'm asking if they want to buy the bet back at its current market price. The current market price for a $12,500 win on Auburn is about $5575. However, that includes the commission. So, around $5000 is probably fairer.

The current FSU price has nothing to do with anything. I'm not talking about the cost of hedging where you are paying a 10% commission that's built into the odds. Folks here are thinking as if I'm asking Topbet to lend me the money for a hedge, with the Auburn bet as collateral. I'm not asking that. I'm asking if they want to buy it back.

**luvnpeas** · 12-09-13, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by rangerz2478

Lets just use your $12,000 payout as an example. IF Florida State was currently even money to win, THEN your bet would be worth $6,000. ($6,000 to $6,000 hedged to equal your $12,000 payout) Unfortunately for you, Florida State is nowhere near even, they are -300. Therefore your $12,000 Auburn bet is worth $3,000 if its sold. (9,000-3,000 on the hedge)

An offer from a bookie of even money on FSU would not translate into even money for Auburn. You are forgetting about commissions.

**rangerz2478** · 12-09-13, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by luvnpeas

I'm asking if they want to buy the bet back at its current market price. The current market price for a $12,500 win on Auburn is about $5575. However, that includes the commission. So, around $5000 is probably fairer.

The current FSU price has nothing to do with anything. I'm not talking about the cost of hedging where you are paying a 10% commission that's built into the odds. Folks here are thinking as if I'm asking Topbet to lend me the money for a hedge, with the Auburn bet as collateral. I'm not asking that. I'm asking if they want to buy it back.

I don't need you to explain to me how buy backs work. I make my living off these kind of bets and figuring out how to buy them out. The difference between the "buy out" and hedging is basically the exact same thing. IF a book was to offer you a buyout, it would be at the current Florida State price. Why the hell would the book work with the +225 Auburn price? Clearly there is juice involved. You think they'd offer you a sell at that price just to be nice? Hell no, if anything they work with the price players pay to bet Florida State.

Take a step back and think of it from the pure hedging perspective. If you had $12,500 on Auburn payouts if they win, and you decided to do the $12,500-$5575, you would have $5575 MORE on Florida State. You think a book is going to cut you this deal? Hell no they won't. It needs to be thought of as what YOU would need to put down to hedge THAT is how you calculate the worth of the bet and you don't do it the way you are explaining. You do it with total payouts. Your bet is worth nowhere near what you believe it's worth.

**rangerz2478** · 12-09-13, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by luvnpeas

An offer from a bookie of even money on FSU would not translate into even money for Auburn. You are forgetting about commissions.

I'm not forgetting about anything. When I do these bets, I have enough in my accounts to hedge the other side if need be. If FSU was even money to win the game (and Auburn was -120 or w.e) then it would be worth half. That isn't the case here

**rangerz2478** · 12-09-13, 06:32 PM

It's like buying and selling a stock. When you buy a stock, you are buying at a higher price than the current sell price. No trader would let you sell a stock at the current buy price. THIS is what you seem to be forgetting. This is on top of the fact you seemingly bet a bad line.

**luvnpeas** · 12-10-13, 12:13 PM

When you buy a stock, you buy at the current sell price. Obviously.

The difference is commissions. If you base the value of the Auburn bet on the cost of hedging it, you are including the "juice" paid to hedge it. My initial offer to Topbet wasn't intended for them to make a commission off it. (I made a mistake of including their commission in the price they'd pay me, but I since amended that.)

If you calculate the value of the Auburn bet from the Auburn side, and take out the commission (what I did), you will get the exact the same result as if you calculate it from the FSU-hedge side and take out the commission. You're just not taking out commission in your calculation. You think there is no way Topbet will agree to anything that doesn't involve them getting a commission. You may be right about that, but it isn't what I offered them, and it isn't the only way to value a bet.

I posted all the lines Topbet was offering in the other Topbet thread in this forum. Please take a look at that. The Auburn lines they offered were consistent with all the other lines they were offering on longshots at that time, ranging from 5000:1 (Oregon State) to 500:1 (Louisville, Clemson, etc). All of those other teams had much better records than Auburn last year; the odds were quite consistent. Perhaps too high across the book, but no single one was a glitch. and they maintained those odds for at least a week (I stopped checking after all my teams but Auburn lost).

If you'd like to continue the discussion of the math, please start a new thread.

**Parlayplayer** · 12-10-13, 02:28 PM

U need to listen to ranger. He is 100% right u r wrong! Ur bet was a long shot and still is a longshot to win! If your bet turned into the favorite Say Ohio state won n fs lost and now auburn is the fav, then your math is more accurate! If things worked out your way we would all go bet 10-1 dog ml and ask the book to buy us out befor the game to limit their risk. Uhh dont make sense does it? Ur offer is an insult and the book would let the bet ride before paying u 15k or whatever on a 3-1 dog that if hedged correctly would pay like 9 or 10k! But u got auburn at 2000-1 when they were 5-1 and they went off preseason at 1000-1. Looks like a bad line and u may get screwed on it! I would not hedge my bet with them go to a diferent book to place ur fs bet and pray they win! If they lose then deal with topbet but speak to a manager to ensure ur odds r correct!

**Parlayplayer** · 12-10-13, 02:40 PM

As for ur lawyer question. Don't waste ur time. I was screwed out of a large sum of $ from a CR book and looked into getting a lawyer! My options were to retain the lawyer with cash up front. No lawyer will fight a book outside of their country for a %. The lawyers explained that even if we won the case there is no way to get the money. Unless however the book decides to pay the law suit in which they won't because nothing happens if they do not. U can try getting a lawyer in the specific country in which the book is in but even then I'm sure it will be a big disappointment! I contacted us attorneys not cr attorneys and they wanted like 12k upfront!

**rangerz2478** · 12-10-13, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by luvnpeas

When you buy a stock, you buy at the current sell price. Obviously.

The difference is commissions. If you base the value of the Auburn bet on the cost of hedging it, you are including the "juice" paid to hedge it. My initial offer to Topbet wasn't intended for them to make a commission off it. (I made a mistake of including their commission in the price they'd pay me, but I since amended that.)

If you calculate the value of the Auburn bet from the Auburn side, and take out the commission (what I did), you will get the exact the same result as if you calculate it from the FSU-hedge side and take out the commission. You're just not taking out commission in your calculation. You think there is no way Topbet will agree to anything that doesn't involve them getting a commission. You may be right about that, but it isn't what I offered them, and it isn't the only way to value a bet.

I posted all the lines Topbet was offering in the other Topbet thread in this forum. Please take a look at that. The Auburn lines they offered were consistent with all the other lines they were offering on longshots at that time, ranging from 5000:1 (Oregon State) to 500:1 (Louisville, Clemson, etc). All of those other teams had much better records than Auburn last year; the odds were quite consistent. Perhaps too high across the book, but no single one was a glitch. and they maintained those odds for at least a week (I stopped checking after all my teams but Auburn lost).

If you'd like to continue the discussion of the math, please start a new thread.

You need to stop with this "commission" stuff. Say you were your bookies only customer and you had the only bet on the game and won. He owes you 10grand, what is his "commission?" You are comparing juice too much to straight commission like on a stock trade. In THAT regard, it doesn't work that way.

No stock broker would even remotely consider selling a stock the way you are proposing, and a sportsbook sure as hell won't either. In your examples which are 100% wrong, you would stand to profit more on FSU winning. I shouldn't need to explain how wrong that is. In order to calculate the value of these bets in a championship spot, you need to calculate the value of betting the other side. PERIOD.

No reason to argue with you. I have made a living off these kind of futures and dealing with every aspect of the math involved, you apparently took a shot at a book that most likely won't pay even if you win. Good luck moving forward, sounds like you'll need some no matter who wins the game.

**petac** · 12-10-13, 05:41 PM

why are you guys arguing over a bet made with a book that owes someone 100k, If auburn wins or if they lose, it will be same result for them. If this book owes 100k to poster biggie12, then there is no way you get paid on this bet. That is the fact here.

**rangerz2478** · 12-10-13, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by petac

why are you guys arguing over a bet made with a book that owes someone 100k, If auburn wins or if they lose, it will be same result for them. If this book owes 100k to poster biggie12, then there is no way you get paid on this bet. That is the fact here.

Can't argue that. They MIGHT pay the win, but in terms of getting the money out I'm sure it would be a potential nightmare.