Martingale System applied to soccer

[MisterEko]

Cheers friends,
this is one of my first posts here. I wanted to share my thoughts on applying the Martingale system to soccer.
In case some of you don't know how system works, let me give you an example:
Say you're playing roulette. You have an option of betting on either red or black. Let's say you put 5 units on red (with the possibility of winning 10 units). You lose. Next turn, you double your bet, putting 10 units on red, with the possibility of winning 20 units (total money bet so far-15 units). Keep doubling bets until red comes, and there you go.
Now, I've done some research on how to apply this to soccer. For this system to works, odds always have to be at least 2.00. One of the only bets that always guarantees at least 2.00 odd is to bet on a draw (x).
After some digging around, I discovered that, in Italian Serie A, no team has finished season with less than 4 draws (in past few years). Knowing Italian style of play, it is easy to assume that every team will draw at least few times. With my bookies, average draw odds are usually around 3.00.
So, I had to choose a team to bet on. Two weeks ago, I noticed that the only team that hasn't had a draw yet is Parma. So, i bet 10 units on a draw, against Udineze. Potential win was 31 units. I lost. Next week, I doubled my bet on Parma to draw against Novara, putting 20 units, with potential winning of 61 units (total bet 30 units). Parma lost. Next weekend, Parma is playing against Palermo, and I am putting 40 units on a draw. Potential winning is around 125 units, with total bet so far 70 units. I plan on doubling the bets until draw happens.
Any thoughts?

[MartR]

All you need is a decent bankroll. That's it!

[DHB]

Let's say you put 5 units on red (with the possibility of winning 5 units). You lose. Next turn, you double your bet, putting 10 units on red, with the possibility of winning 10 units

you're not subtracting your wager from your winnings? ur only winning what u wagered since odds are 2.00.

this could work if u had an unlimited bankroll, but at the end of the day ur risking alot to win very little.

[escou]

Bet Argentina friend Italy is the wrong league for this, way too tricky and predicted ....

[MisterEko]

you're not subtracting your wager from your winnings? ur only winning what u wagered since odds are 2.00.

this could work if u had an unlimited bankroll, but at the end of the day ur risking alot to win very little.

You're right, I expressed myself in a wrong way.
I guess it depends on how you look at it. Say you come to the point where you place 640 units on a draw. Possible win bring you 1280 units (plus the 640 you put in). Total you paid in so far is 1275 and you get to win 645 units, which is pretty good in my opinion.
Also, unlimited bankroll is only needed in theory, because number of games are limited.

[EasyPicks]

I rather use the Martingale system for OVER's

[MisterEko]

But are odds good enough for it to pay off?

[p19101]

Bad bad bad idea. You may ending up risking a lot to win very little. What do you do when you go 7, 8, 9, 10 losses in a row? It will happen sooner or later and you'll be nervous as hell.

Say u bet $200 as normal bet. 400 800 1600 3200 6400 12800 25600, you see it adds up. Not only that, you have to have a bookie you know will swallow those numbers. Stay away from this kind of betting, will only lead to gambling problems...

[Mikica28]

I rather use the Martingale system for OVER's

could you explain how?

[FindTheLock]

U only bet on over 2.5 instead of 1x2. The problem with soccer is there are 3 possible results. In order to marty this sport you want to narrow the possible outcomes to only 2. It's still a bad system as anyone who has ever gambled for long enough already knows, but good luck with your chasing!

[Sawyer]

Be careful with martingale, it's quick recipe to poorhouse..

Labouchere is better (Row of numbers). Not agressive like Martingale.

[EasyPicks]

Labby also better

[MisterEko]

Well, I am already in it, so I put decent money on Parma to play draw on Sunday. Wish me luck fellas!

[DHB]

good luck, keep posting here i wanna see how this turns out!

[Umad Brasiek]

I think it is a very dangerous way of playing.

[p19101]

I think it is a very dangerous way of playing.

That is putting it mildly, just about the worst betting system there is.

[MisterEko]

I understand the skepticism but I already committed 2 weeks ago and won't let go now.
Parma to draw, 40 units in, possible winning 122 units.

[FindTheLock]

good luck! A good idea when implementing this type of system is creating a cut off point. A point from which you will chase no further. Once you reach that point start from square one again. This type of system will still lose, but it won't be so detrimental to your health compared to throwing 10k on a draw after losing 5 or 6 in a row. Cut it off at 3 chase losses or something like that. Always remember it is easy to win or lose 5 or 6 in a row. I hope you find early success and stop, because implementing this system for a long period of time will cripple your bank account.

[MisterEko]

Thanks Findthelock, I did create a cutoff point, it is after 5 losses, so I have this round and two more if it doesn't happen. If I win, I will stop right there (although Bolton has zero draws in Premir League, but they look so bad, not sure I wanna go there).
Guys, thanks for wishing me luck, I'll need it.

[FindTheLock]

this kind of betting is similar to betting heavy ML's. You should just bet the heavy chalk and see how easy it is to lose that way. You have better odds betting heavy chalk rather than trying to marty a sport with 3 possible outcomes anyway.

[MisterEko]

this kind of betting is similar to betting heavy ML's. You should just bet the heavy chalk and see how easy it is to lose that way. You have better odds betting heavy chalk rather than trying to marty a sport with 3 possible outcomes anyway.

Please forgive me for lack of knowledge when it comes to terminology (new in betting world vocab) but what is ML and heavy Chalk?

[FindTheLock]

-500 or worse is heavy chalk. Chalk is the favorite. ML= Money Line. Juice is the rake the casino takes from your risk amount. For instance... betting on a -500 Money Line you would need to risk 500 to win 100. That is considered betting on heavy chalk. Chalk= favorite....Juice=Vigorish=Vig. All terms to describe the house's rake. Betting on the dog is the opposite of laying the chalk.

[MisterEko]

-500 or worse is heavy chalk. Chalk is the favorite. ML= Money Line. Juice is the rake the casino takes from your risk amount. For instance... betting on a -500 Money Line you would need to risk 500 to win 100. That is considered betting on heavy chalk. Chalk= favorite....Juice=Vigorish=Vig. All terms to describe the house's rake. Betting on the dog is the opposite of laying the chalk.

Ah, thanks for clarifying that for me. My local bookies offer odds in decimals, so even -500 was confusing for me
Appreciate it my friend!

[FindTheLock]

-500=1.2 in decimal odds. Heavy juice. With American odds you have to multiply and divide. Decimals you just multiply and subtract your stake to get to the win amount. Decimals are easier to grasp for the most part, but I prefer american because I am american and I am just used to them. to do american version just remember to divide. for instance. -500 is the same as saying divide by 5. - 350 is the same as saying divide by 3.5. so whatever you plan to risk divided by that number. if the chalk extends to 4 digits -6000 then you have to move the decimal over 2 places before dividing. -6000 means divide by 60. So if you were to bet 100/60=1.67. Hopefully no one ever places bets on ML's like that though. There is never a good reason to risk 100 dollars to win a pack of bubble gum.

[MisterEko]

40 units on Parma X tonight, at 3.05. Let'se see.

[lukahh]

Soccer martingale is equal to non-rigged roulette. The house still has the edge.

What will you do when you come to bet 25% of your bankroll? Or when you lose and bet further 50%?

it will happen eventually. stay out.

[dxunchuk]

good luck , risky plays but not so bad I think

[montan]

I rather use the Martingale system for OVER's

Much better. Norway, Switherland, Netherland,Germany(bundesliga 1 and 2 mostly), England..lots and lots of overs here.

Bad bad bad idea. You may ending up risking a lot to win very little. What do you do when you go 7, 8, 9, 10 losses in a row? It will happen sooner or later and you'll be nervous as hell. Say u bet $200 as normal bet. 400 800 1600 3200 6400 12800 25600, you see it adds up. Not only that, you have to have a bookie you know will swallow those numbers. Stay away from this kind of betting, will only lead to gambling problems...

Good point.

Mr eko - Plus if you want to do this try to document first , search as much as you can. A shot look of the last season in Serie A, Fiorentina had most of the draws and this when they played away.Chievo had most of the draws when they`ve played at home, folowed by Bologna. It is very very important to know when to bet whit your sistem, when the team play at home or away. Parma, at least fo me, is an unpredictable team. Logicaly thinking when a team has almost the same number of result wile playing at home as well as playing away the last thing you should play is the draw. You kind of picking the wrong team.

[montan]

well..looks like is going to be a draw after all.

[MisterEko]

Yup, it came through after 3 rounds. Statistically, it had to happen sooner or later. So, final count: Put in 70 units (10, 20, 40), won 122 units. Not bad. Probably stopping now.

[MisterEko]

Although it is a bit tempting when I look at Premier League and see Everton with only one draw so far, or Bolton with zero. However, Bolton is quite bad so probably not worth it.
If you guys know of any league where a team hasn't had a draw yet, let me know. Thank you!

[DHB]

iraqi super league where 36% of games end in a draw.
3 teams yet to draw

al talaba
kirkuk
zakho

[DHB]

serbian super liga
27% draw rate.

partizan, the only team yet to score after 14 matches.

[DHB]

also look at jordan and slovakia, a team each in those leagues yet to draw.

good luck.

[justin81]

Argentina is full of draws and Italy Serie B league. In Poland Legia and Slask had so far three draws all together after 16 weeks.