Originally posted by DiamondJack
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I was not expecting that 2-0 result in favor of Australia.Comment -
GERMANY V CURACAO
12. Germany -3.5 @ 1.83/-120 (2 Units) Bet365
Lean
Kai Havertz 2+ goals scored @ 3.10/+210
If there is any opening round match with the potential to get ugly its this one. Germany have won 9 straight scoring 28 goals that averages to 3.11 per game. Curacao just lost 5-1 to the Aussies,4-1 to Scotland and 2-0 to China. I think Kai Havertz will be Germanys top scorer and he might start this game off with a brace. Just worried he nets one others get 1 its 5-0 and he gets subbed off early.
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JAPAN V NETHERLANDS
13. Japan +0.5 @ 1.80/-125 (1 Unit) Bet365
Lean
FT Result DRAW @ 3.42/+242
This would have been a 2 unit play for me if I wasn't already invested in backing Japan in my futures. Japan are in great form winning 6 in a row keeping 5 clean sheets beating Brazil & England. The Netherlands beat Uzbekistan 2-1 lost to Algeria 1-0 and tied with Ecuador 1-1.
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ECUADOR V IVORY COAST
14. FT Result DRAW @ 2.85/+185 (1 Unit) Sports Interaction
Lean
No Goal scorer @ 5.50/+450
Ecuador come into the match with a streak of 19 games undefeated 10 of which ended level. Ecuador only allowed 6 goals against in that stretch. The Ivory coast are also in good form 8-1-1. This has all the looks of a 0-0 final with both sides eyeing Curacao as their 3 points. Please note the weather in Philly is forecast as a washout and thunderstorms so who knows when this games gets played. I always play the no goal scorer instead on 0-0 because it covers your behind if there is an own goal scored. I might play it depending on the weather closer to game time.
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World Cup Record Updated;
6-5-1 +192
Leans
8-2 +660
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SWEDEN V TUNISIA
15. Total cards OVER 3.5 @ 1.75/-133 (1 Unit) Bet365
16. Tunisia +0.5 @ 1.93/-107 (1/2 u) Bet365
Lean
FT Result DRAW @ 3.40/+240
How does one choose between two awful sides? I guess back the dog and plug your nose. I will fade both of these sides versus their group opponents. The Argentinian referee here Falcon Perez averages 5.03 yellows per game and .14 reds. Tunisia foul more then average and with both sides needing a result here I think we see cards.
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SPAIN V CAPE VERDE
17. Cape Verde HT Result +1.5 @ 1.77/-130 (1u)
Lean
Cape Verde +3 @ 1.78/-128
Yeah I know its Spain and this could be over quickly I'm going to make a case for the blue sharks here. In the last 7 games they won 4 of them and kept 4 clean sheets. Very recently both teams played Egypt both tied Egypt. Both teams played Serbia both beat Serbia by the exact 3-0 score line. Everyone and their mother is on Spain and I think the line is too ridiculous. I'm going to hope they keep it close at least before halftime.
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Nice callComment -
BELGIUM V EGYPT
18. Belgium-1 @ 2.01/+101 (1u) Pinnacle
Lean
Belgium Team Total Corners OVER 6.5 @1.91/-110
I'm expecting Belgium to make a statement in this group. They come into this game with great form 4 wins and a draw with Mexico in the past 5, along with 20 goals scored Undefeated in their past 12. The last game also won 14 team corners. Egypt on the other hand are in mixed form 2-2-1 in their past 5 with only 6 goals scored. I'm thinking 3-1.
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SAUDI ARABIA V URUGUAY
19. Total Goals UNDER 2.5 @ 1.78/-128 (1u)
Lean
Uruguay win to Nil @ 2.00/+100
This match is being played in Miami in very hot and humid conditions, something I forgot to check about Seattle as there seems to be a heat wave there. Saudi Arabia lack any real goal scoring threat and they qualified on the back of their strength in defense. Both sides are in poor form The Saudis only 1 win in their past 6 and that was versus Puerto Rico. Uruguay only 1 win in their past 5 and that was a 2-1 result to Uzbekistan. Uruguay on paper have enough quality to put away the Saudis in what is looking very much like a snooze fest.
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NEW ZEALAND V IRAN
20. Iran ML @ 1.78/-128 (1u)
Lean
Iran win to Nil @ 2.62/+162
New Zealand come into this match with 1 win 8 losses and a draw. They have also failed to score in 4 of their past 5 games. Iran have 5 wins 1 draw and 1 loss. New Zealand simply would not be here were it not given a s spot for winning the Oceania region where there is no competition. This is a simple handicap of just take the better team to win.
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FRANCE V SENEGAL
21. BTTS YES @ 1.95/-105 (1u) Bet365
Lean
Senegal +1.25 @ 1.80/-125
Its not hot and humid today in New York so I'm hoping for a good game between these sides. France has not lost an opening game at a world cup since 2002 and that was to Senegal. France has scored at least a goal in their past 12 games. yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their past 5. This team of celebs must prove it too me before I back them. I see a 2-1 France or 1-1 draw as possible outcomes.
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NORWAY V IRAQ
22. Norway-1.75 @ 1.85/-117 (3u) Bet365
Lean
Haaland 2+ goals @ 3.00/+200
This match has the potential of an epic beatdown. Norway know they need to pile it on with France & Senegal on tap. In recent games Norway beat Moldova 11-1 Israel 5-0 Estonia 4-1 Italy 4-1. Iraq in their past 5 lost to Jordan, lost to Algeria & Venezuela and managed to beat mighty Andorra 1-0. Haaland led Norway' with 16 goals in 8 games during qualification. This man has been salivating waiting for this moment I would not even rule out a hat trick.
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AUSTRIA V JORDAN
24. Austria-1.5 @ 2.03/+103 (1u) Bet365
Lean
Marcel Sabitzer to score or assist Anytime @ 1.83/-120
The debutants Jordan are in poor form winless in their past 5 including a 4-1 beat down by the Swiss. Austria on the other hand have 9 wins 1 draw and a loss in their past 11. The Dortmund midfielder Marcel Sabitzer has scored a goal in each of Austria's last 3 games. Quality separation is too much here Austria wins win relative ease.
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PORTUGAL V DR CONGO
25. Total Goals UNDER 2.75 @ 1.86/-116 (1u) Pinnacle
26. Portugal Win to Nil @ 1.86/-116 (1u) Pinnacle
Lean
Total Cards OVER 2.5 @ 1.91/-110 Pinnacle
No team parks the bus like the Congo. 11 of their past 13 have gone under 2.5. They have only conceded 5 goas against in that time span. Portugal have scored more then 2 goals only once in their last 8 games. Obviously Portugal are the better side and eventually should break down the Congo. The Qatari referee for this match averages 5.17 yellow cards and .21 reds per match. So the line is VERY fishy here set so low.
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ENGLAND V CROATIA
27. Total Goals UNDER 2.25 @ 2.08/+108 (1u) Pinnacle
Lean
HT Result DRAW @ 2.27/+127 Pinnacle
England have arguably the best defense at the tournament. During qualification they scored 22 goals and conceded none. It would be ironic if it took a German manager to bring the trophy back to England. He has made some ballsy squad selections so the proof will be on display. Croatia are an aging side they lost 2 of their last 3 games to Belgium and Brazil. England have won their last two, both to nil. Croatia might take a while to break down but I see this as the same result as the last time they met at the last Euros, 1-0 to England with the goal coming in the second half.
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GHANA V PANAMA
28. HT Result DRAW @ 2.06/+106 (1u) Pinnacle
Lean
FT Result DRAW @ 3.22/+222 Bet365
I think Ghana are only favourites here because of their history. This team is bad they are winless in their last 6 games losing 5 and a draw with Wales. Panama have only lost once in their last 5 games and that was to Brazil. I'm thinking 1-1 final.
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COLOMBIA V UZBEKISTAN
29. Colombia win to Nil @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Pinnacle
Lean
FT Result Colombia-1.25 @ 1.92/-108 Pinnacle
Too much quality on Colombia to be bothered by Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan are winless in their past 3 and lost the last 2. Colombia have won their last two. I think Colombia strikes early and win 2-0 or more I don't see anyone from Uzbekistan scoring their strength is their defense.
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CZECHIA V SOUTH AFRICA
30. Czechia ML @1.87/-115 (1u) Pinnacle
Lean
Patrik Schick anytime goal or assist @ 2.10/+110 Bet365
South Africa will be without 2 starters both midfielders Sithole and Zwane who were red carded in their opening match. South Africa are now winless in their past 5. Czechia need a result here as they play Mexico last so I think they attack here. I expect Czechia to score so backing their primary penalty taker over an undisciplined South Africa side might also be a good idea.
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BOSNIA V SWITZERLAND
31. Swiss team shots on target OVER 5.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Bet365
32. Dan Ndoye to score or assist anytime @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet365
Lean
Bosnia total team cards OVER 2.5 @ 2.37/+137 Bet365
I expect a big game from the Swiss after they dominated Qatar and were unlucky to draw the opener. Bosnia's 2 key players Dzeko and Tabakovic are doubtful. Bosnia conceded 13 shots on target to Canada. Dan Ndoye the forest winger has scored in 7 of the past 12 games for the Swiss. The referee for this game Joao Pinheiro averages 4.9 yellow cards and .25 red cards. Bosnian defender Kalasinac committed 4 fouls vs Canada he might be booked facing Ndoye. This game will be very interesting to play in game as if Bosnia get some lucky goal first I will be backing the Swiss on several corner, shots etc in game markets. If the game is level at the half that is when I will back the Swiss on the ML if I can get a good number.
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CANADA V QATAR
33. Canada win to Nil @ 2.06/+106 (2u) Pinnacle
Lean
Canada -1.5 @ 1.91/-110 Bet365
It looks like Canada will be without Alphonso Davies again and I expect Cyle Larin to start replacing Oluwaseyi. My pre tournament convictions have not changed I still think Qatar is not good and is not a very threat to score. We need Jonathan David to wake up as well and if his number to score anytime was better I would have backed him..
Canada should win this otherwise as hosts I mean what are we doing here as a program?
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Updated Record After the first round
14-14-1 +271 Units
Leans
15-10-0 +804 Units
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MEXICO V KOREA
34. Mexico Team shots on target OVER 4.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Bet365
Lean
Korea Total shots OVER 9.5 @ 2.00/+100 Bet365
These sides recently met back in September and the ended level 2-2. I think now with the pressure a little off with the Czechia/South Africa result we see more of an open game. Once again I am not double dipping as I'm already backing Mexico in futures. Mexico had 6 shots on target in that 2-2 meeting. Korea had 11 total shots they also had 15 versus Czechia. Korea does not sit back so I see them trying to shoot when they can.
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Updated WC Record
17-16-1 +498 Units
Leans
17-12-0 +841 Units
Futures
1-0-0 +200 Units
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USA V AUSTRALIA
35. USA -1 @ 2.11/+111 (1u) Pinnacle
36. USA total shots on target OVER 5.5 @ 2.20/+120 (1/2 u) Bet365
Lean
Florian Balogun to score or assist anytime @ 1.80/-125 Bet365
The USA is not losing this game. I rate Australia about the same as Paraguay. These sides just met in October with the US winning 2-1. If one does not like pushes you can combine the US ML with an alt corner total over or USA over shots in a SGP to get that price less juicy. Florian Balogun had 5 shots in the opening game and scored 2 goals which puts him at 5 in the past 6 international games. The Aussies were lucky versus the Turks they only had 28% of the possession and faced 30 shots. The Americans had 6 shots on target versus Paraguay.
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SCOTLAND V MOROCCO
37. Morocco ML + Ismael Saibari Shot on target(SGP) @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet365
Lean
Andy Robertson 2+ fouls committed @ 2.75/+175 Bet365
As previously mentioned I'm pretty big on Morocco and their long unbeaten run will continue here. Scotland actually impressed versus Haiti they were hard to break down but playing Morocco is another level. This will be a horrible match up for Scottish captain Robertson. He has Hakimi and Diaz on the left who versus Brazil were fouled 5 and 3 times respectively. Robertson committed 2 fouls vs Haiti. PSV attacker Ismael Saibari scored versus Brazil and had 3 shots on goal. He has also had a goal and seven shots in his previous game for an xG of 0.71. I also considered of taking him to score or assist anytime.
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BRAZIL V HAITI
38. Vinicius Jr. Anytime Goal scorer @ 1.72/-139 (1u) Bet365
Lean
Rapinha anytime goal scorer @ 2.00/+100 Pinnacle
There is no value backing Brazil at these odds. Their form is sketchy, however they have the firepower to dismantle any side despite their incohesive play. I think they need a statement win to keep the wolves at bay. Vini has scored in 2 of Brazils last 3 games so he should get on the board and with the absence of Neymar Rapinha is the next in line penalty taker and at evens seems like a touch of value. However he did have a very poor game versus Morocco and has been criticized in the press.
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TURKIYE V PARAGUAY
39. Turkiye ML @ 2.10/+110 (2u) Pinnacle
Lean
Turkiye -1 (AH) spread corners @ 1.85/-117 Bet365
This is a simple handicap, the Turks are simply the better side that were unlucky versus the Aussies. They will all out attack shoot a lot and that should lean for them having more corners then Paraguay. I think key man on the left side Kenan Yildiz from Juventus is fit enough and will start and that is big because outside of maybe Arda Guler is Turkeys best player.
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NETHERLANDS V SWEDEN
40. Netherlands ML @ 1.73/-137 (1u) Bet365
41. Cody Gakpo to score or assist anytime @ 1.83/-120 (1/2 u) Bet365
Lean
BTTS YES + Team Total Goals Netherlands OVER 1.5 (SGP) @ 2.25/+125 Bet365
Both of these sides are in good scoring form. The Sweden win over Tunisia has to taken with a grain of salt but they did pop in 5. Form wise in the last 12 games Sweden no clean sheets recorded and 24 goals against. Holland 32 goals for in their past dozen games. Norway was a common opponent to both these sides. Sweden lost 3-1 while the Netherlands won 2-1. Codey Gakpo the top scorer from the last Euros is yet to get on the board and as the Netherlands top penalty taker I believe he gets involved today. Everything here points to a 2-1, 3-1 win for the Netherlands.Comment -
GERMANY V IVORY COAST
42. Kai Havertz anytime goal scorer @ 2.34/+134 (1u) Pinnacle
Leans
Yan Diamande to be fouled 2+ times (SGP) @ 2.00/+100 Bet365
Germany Team Cards OVER 1.5 @ 2.50/+150 Bet365
Germany have yet to be tested having won their opener 7-1 versus lowly Curacao. Form wise they have won 10 straight scoring 32 goals. The Ivory coast impressed me versus Ecuador and are also on a good run of form with 9 wins 1 draw and a single loss in the past 10. I think we see goals and an open style here with both sides already on 3 points. Tactically Leipzig's Yan Diomande was the go to man for the Ivory coast versus Ecuador so much so he was being doubled in the second half. In the Bundesliga he completed the most successful dribbles per 90 minutes. He averages drawing over 1.5 fouls per game. In the opener he was fouled twice. He will be up against Brown who fouled twice and Pavlovic who committed 6 last games. I would see how Germany lines up to defend this kid and play props like cards for Germany. No one on Germany was carded is the first match and with cards being reset after the group stage they can afford to get a yellow or two.
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CURACAO V ECUADOR
43. Ecuador -2 @ 1.73/-137 (1u) Pinnacle
44. Enner Valencia Anytime Goal scorer @ 1.83/-120 (1 u) Bet365
Lean
Ecuador HT/FT + Total Goals OVER 2.5 (SGP) @ 2.00/+100
Throw out the record books when these two old time rivals meet
. Ecuador were unlucky to get anything out of their opening game conceding late all the while hitting the woodwork 3 times. If they finish 3rd in the group they are going to need to rack up the goal difference. Curacao almost often manage to score but will be outclassed by Ecuador. Curacao lost by 3 to Scotland by 4 to Australia and by 6 to Germany however they did score in each of those games. Ecuador will be led by their all time leading goal scorer Enner Valencia who will be looking at this fixture to open his account.
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JAPAN V TUNISIA
45. Ritsu Doan to score or assist @ 2.50/+150 (1/2 u) Pinnacle
46. Koki Ogawa to score or assist @ 2.10/+110 (1/2 u) Bet365
Lean
Japan total team shots on target OVER 4.5 @ 1.80/-125
Tunisia have fired their manager after the first game and replaced him with playboy manager Herve Renard. I have no idea what the new approach will be so I can't cap Tunisia here. Japan will be without Takefusa Kubo who suffered a knee injury in the opening match versus the Netherlands. Taking his spot will be Koki Ogawa who did score 6 goals in qualification. The burden to do more will also be on Ritsu Doan the Freiburg winger. I think taking both to score or assist at plus money is a good play as I do believe Japan can have multiple goals here. Tunisia have allowed 10 goals against in their last 2 games and Japan undefeated in their past 8 have scored 15.
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Updated WC Record
22-18-1 +729 Units
Leans
19-15-0 +741 Units
Futures
1-0-0 +200 Units
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ADDING
JAPAN V TUNISIA
47. HT/FT Result, Japan/Japan @ 2.16/+116 (1u) Pinnacle
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SPAIN V SAUDI ARABIA
48. Spain win to Nil +Oyarzabal 1+ shots on target (SGP) @ 1.86/-116 (1u)
Lean
Spain -2.5 @ 1.83/-120
Every and each way I look at this game it is 3-0. 2-0 or 4-0. Spain will need a bounce back from their opening day performance. In their last 11 games they only conceded 4 goals against. Saudi Arabia relies on defense and have no real goal threat. Spain will have all the possession but the only question is when will they break down the Saudis. Mikel Oyarzabal has had at least one shot on target in each of the past 8 games. I combined that with the Spain to win to nil bet as I do not see the Saudis scoring. Once Spain scores the game will open up and I will bet on them to pile more goals on.
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