Why am I never lucky?

[Gaze73]

For every 9 bad beats, I get less than 1 lucky win. When I take dog +1, it goes from 0:2 to 3:2. When I take dog ML, it goes from 0:2 HT to 2:2 FT. When I take the draw, the big favorite loses 0:1. When I take over 2.5, the big dog scores 2 goals in 20 minutes and then there are no more goals for the rest of the game. When I take under 2.5, it goes scoreless for 80 minutes and I lose anyway. Before making this thread I took Crystal Palace live at +600 and of course they conceded to 2:2 in 95'.

Basically 20-1 events happen against me every day, but when I get lucky I get a 7-1 comeback once a week, yay.

[dawg58kahn]

u arent lucky because you're shit....you make ur own luck

[Gaze73]

No, you idiot, are you salty because of your stupid Brighton bet of the year? When a bet is trading at 1.05/-2000 in play it should win at least 92% of the time. But for me, it holds 80% of the time, which is far below EV. And when I'm on the side that needs big luck, it loses 97% of the time, which is also far below EV. I've made a lot of profit this month despite this absolutely shit luck. The poker equivalent would be shoving AK into AQ 20 times and winning just 8 instead of 14, but you make your own luck, huh? Should have folded the AK.

[Gaze73]

My 3 best bets in the CL

Atalanta +0.5 @2.4 - 0:2 HT 3:2 FT
Benfica - Bayern Under 3.25 @1.9 - 0:0 at 70' to 0:4 at 85', how godawful can you be to concede 4 goals in 15 minutes at home?
Chelsea - Malmo Over 4 @2.7 - 4:0 in 57' then nothing.

All 3 traded below 1.1 in play and none of them won, it's absurd.