Smogs English Football Thread

**Smogs** · 09-13-09, 07:48 AM

With Villa winning 1-0, i am going to put another DNB play on for Cardiff @ 4/6 1 Unit

**Smogs** · 09-13-09, 08:27 AM

Not realising how good Newcastle are this year has cost me a unit

**Wilforth** · 09-13-09, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Not realising how good Newcastle are this year has cost me a unit

It's not that Newcastle are any better this year. It's that in the Championship, they're playing against inferior opposition.

BTW, our Ipswich play went bananas.

**Smogs** · 09-13-09, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

It's not that Newcastle are any better this year. It's that in the Championship, they're playing against inferior opposition.

BTW, our Ipswich play went bananas.

I know lol, Boro destroyed them. Oh well, i fancy them at home to Forest on tuesday but i'll leave them 'cos they are playing terribly atm.

Sunday football 1-1 -0.45 Units

**TurkzZ** · 09-14-09, 05:55 AM

looks like Both Boro and N'castle will be making a swift return to the top

**Wilforth** · 09-14-09, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by TurkzZ

looks like Both Boro and N'castle will be making a swift return to the top

I think so too.

**Smogs** · 09-15-09, 10:00 AM

I didn't think i'd have a midweek selection this week. Nothing stood out until ii saw this game. I have done some digging and like this a lot.

Plymouth DNB vs Watford @ 4/5 - 2 Units

Let's get back to winning ways

**theplagy** · 09-15-09, 10:14 AM

does that mean Plymouth 2 unit? or watford?

**Smogs** · 09-15-09, 10:25 AM

Sorry, that is Plymouth DNB fella

**Wilforth** · 09-15-09, 10:27 AM

Smogs,

I seem to like:

Bristol City +195 @ Swansea
Norway (Div 2): Honefoss +300 @ Ham Kam

**theplagy** · 09-15-09, 10:28 AM

I kinda like plymouth too...Ill tail you for 1 unit

but what's DNB if i may

**Smogs** · 09-15-09, 10:44 AM

Draw no bet (pk 'em)

Wil - i like B City too, not a clue about your Norway selection but with Nicky Maynard firing, BC look good for the win, maybe a DNB opportunity Wilforth?

**Wilforth** · 09-15-09, 10:47 AM

DNB for BC looks cool.

**Karayilan9** · 09-15-09, 11:29 AM

Smogs taking these leagues at this time is the smartest choice! the books are fully focused on the Champions League plays today, these games are were there is most likely to be value.

**Smogs** · 09-15-09, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Smogs taking these leagues at this time is the smartest choice! the books are fully focused on the Champions League plays today, these games are were there is most likely to be value.

Thanks Kara, i am liking this bet a lot, especially an 'underground' pick like Plymouth/Watford, i mean, what market share does that game have tonight?? Maybe 0.02% of today's football betting?

**Smogs** · 09-15-09, 11:42 AM

Dammit, for better or worse i have added a third unit onto the Plymouth bet

*Added a 3rd unit to the Plymouth bet - this is because of some situational factors i had not even realised. Such as the fact Plymouth go away to Newcastle next, which they will lose, their players know how important this match is.

**Karayilan9** · 09-15-09, 11:44 AM

What you Leistar 2nite?

**Johnny Hipster** · 09-15-09, 11:45 AM

WBA

No bet on W.B.A.?

It is a small price but I see it as 9/10

**Smogs** · 09-15-09, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by Johnny Hipster

No bet on W.B.A.?

It is a small price but I see it as 9/10

WBA are 2/5 tonight, Donny play a tough game so i will leave them out, i have a big slate tonight with the CL tonight and a 3 Unit English pick so i don't want to bet anymore.
No value in WBA sadly

**Wilforth** · 09-15-09, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

I seem to like:

Bristol City +195 @ Swansea
Norway (Div 2): Honefoss +300 @ Ham Kam

My high plus-value plays hardly fail me. Honefoss +200 (sorry, not +300) won!

**dimon** · 09-15-09, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

I didn't think i'd have a midweek selection this week. Nothing stood out until ii saw this game. I have done some digging and like this a lot. Plymouth DNB vs Watford @ 4/5 - 2 Units Let's get back to winning ways

I like the draw for this one!!!

**Smogs** · 09-15-09, 02:35 PM

**** **** ****!!!!

**theplagy** · 09-15-09, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

**** **** ****!!!!

**** **** **** **** !!!!!!!!

they'll tie up bro
still 40 mins to go

**Smogs** · 09-15-09, 05:30 PM

There's something wrong at the moment, i am shipping money all over the place. today wasn't that bad because Milan won for me but regarding my 'English thread', i am losing money at a steady rate. I need to re think the thread or at least the money management. The annoying thing is i am trying to increase the size of my bets as i bet less but more selectively. I am still at roughly 60% but haven't had a solid week for a month now.
I know everyone goes through this but i need to come to my bet conclusions from a different angle. I seem to lose when the value is there for me to see but the odds suggest a loss is a strong possibility. I bet on Plymouth who were a DNB option and they lose outright............WTF!!!???

A break until the weekend is needed and i will come back with stronger picks, i promise.

**Wilforth** · 09-15-09, 05:33 PM

Avoid the lower leagues and concentrate more on value bets.

**mariomonte** · 09-15-09, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

There's something wrong at the moment

A break until the weekend is needed and i will come back with stronger picks, i promise.

Seriously, you have about 8% ROI - which is probably better than 98% of all bettors out there. Assuming you can keep this up and play serious unit sizes, this is a money printer.
Of course everyone wants to shine at their domestic leagues, but (down)swings do happen to happen. If you stay disciplined, this still is one of the easiest ways to make serious money.

E.g. last season my domestic ROI was above 15%. This year so far I'm struggling at 4%. However, I know my approach works, so I really don't cry (too much) after a minus weekend.

Just keep up the good work and wait for the money to pile in.

**Smogs** · 09-15-09, 07:35 PM

Thanks Mario - you have put it in perspective for me.

Once i get my money management fully tweaked, i'll be laughing

**TurkzZ** · 09-15-09, 07:41 PM

just gota accpet (its extreamly hard haha) that not every week will be a winner, like in football even the best teams do not win every week lol, but keeping a good diciplin will ensure a good outcome in the long term

**Dashwood Clipper** · 09-15-09, 08:01 PM

I have been there before. I have gone through the good times and the bad. My lack of money management has killed me in the past. It does not matter how good your capping skills are, if you do not have proper money management this game will kill you.
You will see in many threads that people claim to be winners on a prolific basis. You do not hear about the losses. It is refreshing to see your honesty. I wish you the best of luck.
You will get back on track, dont be hard on yourself, as it will negatively affect your capping abilities.
I am a firm believer that one will never be a winner unless they learn how to lose, accept losing, and budget with losses in mind. I had to learn the hard way.
Once again, best of luck.

**Wilforth** · 09-15-09, 08:34 PM

DC,

Good to read your comments once more.

**Smogs** · 09-16-09, 07:48 AM

Many thanks guys, good advice all round

**Netprofit** · 09-16-09, 07:51 AM

Smogs, all the best wishes. I know you are serious handicapper and no doubt you will do well in the long run.

**Johnny Hipster** · 09-17-09, 10:33 AM

WE ARE SPARTAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

**Johnny Hipster** · 09-18-09, 02:31 PM

What do you think bout Sheffield Utd - Sheffield W derby Smogs? And do you see Newcastle - Plymouth as a very easy game?

**bluebirds** · 09-18-09, 07:08 PM

like your chops pick for top scorer he's off to a great start. As you can tell from my avatar i'm a cardiff fan. I follow them very closely so hopefully i can give some good input.

BOL