Smogs English Football Thread

[Smogs]

Hi Smogs,
this weekend I think bout bettin on these matches:
Arsenal - Bmingham 1 on HANDICAP
- Arsenal is demolishin "rubbish" teams at home so far this season and Bmingham have not lost this season by more than 1 goal - thats why I wanna bet it
Pompey - Spurs - 2
- I saw Pompey at home wit Everton when they were unfortunate to take no points but Harry knows majority of Pompey players and Spurs are much better side and I like the price of about 1,75 a lot...I like both teams to score as well eventhough that Pompey have difficulties to score but we all know how leaky Spurs defence is..

What do you think??
+ Sheffield United is missing many starters for Scunthorpe game but I dont watch this league so cannot say that Scuthorpe will win it easily coz in my opinion Scunthorpe r shit and Sheffield Utd candidates fr promotion and I dont know the quality of the "B team" of Sheffield that will play at Scunthorpe - bt Im a bit tempted to bet that Scunthorpe wont lose.
+ Do you see Everton - Wolves as an easy home win?

thanx Smogs

That's the whole reason i'm slapping 4.9 units on it!!

I would actually take sheff utd over scunny but tbh, it's a no bet at all. I don't even want to entertain the idea of betting on that game.
Love that Arsenal bet though.........and man Utd----both -2ah seems good.
Guna be dominating those two teams i think.


In the mean time, slapping 1.9 units on Blackburn -1ah @2.4 to win 2.6 Units

Seriously considering Arsenal and Man Utd -2

[Smogs]

*Adding 1 Unit on Everton/Man U/Arsenal all SU - 11/10.

[Smogs]

*Adding final football plays of the weekend, let's hope for a good one

1.25 Units - MK Dons 8/13

1.25 Units - Cardiff 5/6 (they are so important for my antepost bankroll)

1.25 Units - Fulham 4/6 (ht/ft is a great bet on these fellas)

2.75 Units - Middlesbrough -1 11/10

Final weekend investment count - 7 Bets risking 14.3 Units (£286)

The Spreadsheet has them all up

[Wilforth]

*Adding 1 Unit on Everton/Man U/Arsenal all SU - 11/10.

That's a great one!

[Johnny Hipster]

Ok this is how I play it this weekend:
Arsenal win on handicap
Tottenham win O´Hara, Hreidarson and Diop wont play + Defoe, "Beanpole" and Krancjar will play for the visitors this year)
Man City win There r couple of Man City players doubtful fr this game bt still - Man City frm Abu Dhabi have stronger side + the odds r quite high and it is not easy to resist the temptation to not bet on them at Wigan who r one of the relegation candidates this year
-> I dont go for Man U on handicap because Rooney is not playing - that is a bad argument coz Man U r much stronger even without Pooney but thats how I see it - If there will be any demolition - then I think that Arsenal has more chances to do it than Red Devils

[Smogs]

Excellent Johno - i have arsenal down in one of my bets.
Good luck to the both of us

Just adding one more weekend bet - Rochdale -1(gotta happen some day) @ 2.66 decimal 2 Units

[Smogs]

Ooooh, and i'm trailing EP's pick of Mattersburg/Linz over 3.5 @ +100 for 2 units

[TurkzZ]

bol dude

[Smogs]

Well, today was horrific, no other way to put it. A loss of 6.35 Units on the day is a horror show but when i look at it, the 2 biggest bets lost, the two that i thought at worst would push, outright failed today.
I would like to thank EaglesPhan for posting the brilliant over 3.5 play in the Austrian PL today, that meant an overall loss for me of just 4.35 Units but for the sake of this thread, will not count towards my record. Thank you anyway

To the rest of you guys, i hope you all had success today, Spurs was a great call, Wilforth, well done sir. And Johnny Hipster, unlucky on your Arsenal push today, well done getting on the Spurs train though.

A trip to NFL can save or add to the despondency i am feeling right now, but i have to think positive, i am up on the year and this is just a blip in a long long marathon of a season.

My NFL and soccer ante-post bets look dam good right now a quarter into the season but i will not take those for granted.

And finally, sorry to anyone who tailed, i feel bad right now

[Smogs]

In the mean time, slapping 1.9 units on Blackburn -1ah @2.4 to win 2.6 Units

Can't buy a win atm, how sh*t is that, in two weeks i have lost 3 bets totalling 8 units in injury time. I was looking at clawing back some money but just can't seem to catch a break. Thank god it's a marathon.
Need to rely on the NFL now.

Hopefully finish the week with a Fulham win, that will get me back 0.75 units if it wins.

*Looking ahead to next week - the only midweek pick i may have is Newcastle - i like Wigan in all aspects at Burnley, currently +200, i think that will drop, especially if they do well against Man City.

[Johnny Hipster]

Championship

Hi Smogs,
it seems that Sheffield has still injury crises so I dont see any reason why not to bet on Blackpool
+
Im ponding over betting on Ipswich coz they have not won a match so far - still, Im not sure if it is a wise bet coz Im not watchin Championship too much and dunno if Ipswich r underperformin so much or wt is goin on coz I thought that they might be at least in the top half of the table and they r somehow on the bottom

In both matches I go especially for the price and Blackpool seems a brilliant bet in my opinion

thanx fr advice

[Smogs]

1.25 Units - Fulham 4/6 (ht/ft is a great bet on these fellas)


The Spreadsheet has them all up

Winner winner, wahey!!!

1.25 Units to win 0.75 units


Johnny, i'll have a chat tomorow, i'm just a bit drunk atm lol. Like your thinking though

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

Your Newcastle pick is an auto-tail. I love Newcastle in that spot more so that they'll be going into this contest off a road loss.

[Smogs]

Smogs,

Your Newcastle pick is an auto-tail. I love Newcastle in that spot more so that they'll be going into this contest off a road loss.

For too long wilforth i have been missing out on easy winners, i'm sick of it, so i'm guna go with the flow and put newcastle on for a unit @ 11/10. BOL to us all on the play

[Smogs]

0.5Unit Newcastle @ 11/10

0.5 Unit Newcastle -1ah @ 21/10

2 weeks ago i'd have put 3 units on this, but with my run i am changing tactics and going back to slow and steady.

[Smogs]

Blackpool dnb looks brilliant, 4 wins and 2 draws vs a team that just lost to scunny, yeh, i like the home side there.

My advice regarding ipswich is to hang fire, wait for the first win, then back them to win a 2nd game straight after the first. Bit of momentum and all that. Watford are a tough nut to crack, Boro can testify to that and i think the best bet in that game is the under.

[mariomonte]

0.5Unit Newcastle @ 11/10

0.5 Unit Newcastle -1ah @ 21/10

Since you are probably betting those lines at Bet365, just a minor hint:
Their "unconventional" AH lines are not competitive. They are taking 10% or more, so you are usually much better off playing their "market" AH or just 1x2.

In this case the fair -1ah odd would be around 3.6, so their offer isn't value.

[Wilforth]

Blackpool dnb looks brilliant, 4 wins and 2 draws vs a team that just lost to scunny, yeh, i like the home side there.

My advice regarding ipswich is to hang fire, wait for the first win, then back them to win a 2nd game straight after the first. Bit of momentum and all that. Watford are a tough nut to crack, Boro can testify to that and i think the best bet in that game is the under.

I like Watford ML in that spot. I think Ipswich will lose about 2 more games before they win 3 straight.

[Smogs]

Since you are probably betting those lines at Bet365, just a minor hint:
Their "unconventional" AH lines are not competitive. They are taking 10% or more, so you are usually much better off playing their "market" AH or just 1x2.

In this case the fair -1ah odd would be around 3.6, so their offer isn't value.

Thanks dude, i had never really thought about it like that before. I will bear that in mind in future picks

I like Watford ML in that spot. I think Ipswich will lose about 2 more games before they win 3 straight.

Agree once again wil, i think they get their first win at the weekend away to Plymouth

[Johnny Hipster]

So I finally made a bet on Blackpool + two other matches that r not proper to this forum - last time I lost some on Wigans draw with City so I "had to" bet more this time

[infamousbacardi]

Yeahhhh blackpool!!! I can't believe the ML on this one was 2.40 at bodog...I parlayed that one with Cardiff at 1.60...but a little $75 on it...and boom...nice little pay day for us. well done

[Smogs]

Yeahhhh blackpool!!! I can't believe the ML on this one was 2.40 at bodog...I parlayed that one with Cardiff at 1.60...but a little $75 on it...and boom...nice little pay day for us. well done

Well done, but this thread lost money tonight, don't come in here bragging when you know i had one pick tonight............and it lost. It's bad taste. Maybe if you had come on the thread before the game then it would be a different matter.

Johnny, good win dude, keep it up, please keep contributing

[infamousbacardi]

Blackpool dnb looks brilliant, 4 wins and 2 draws vs a team that just lost to scunny, yeh, i like the home side there. My advice regarding ipswich is to hang fire, wait for the first win, then back them to win a 2nd game straight after the first. Bit of momentum and all that. Watford are a tough nut to crack, Boro can testify to that and i think the best bet in that game is the under.

Based on this post, I thought YOU had this pick...sorry mate, thought you were on it as well...only reason I would care about your silly thread...no reason to be a little harsh...don't worry, you won't find me back in your thread for any reason...bol in the future betting of yours

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

Newcastle didn't come through for us. We'll get them next time.

[Johnny Hipster]

Well done, but this thread lost money tonight, don't come in here bragging when you know i had one pick tonight............and it lost. It's bad taste. Maybe if you had come on the thread before the game then it would be a different matter.

Johnny, good win dude, keep it up, please keep contributing

Still havent won coz I have 2x more matches to take money - Wolfsburg - Besiktas - 1 and Valencia - Slavia Prague - 1 --- so Im thinking bout bettin Wolfsburg - Besiktas 0 and Valencia - Slavia Prague 1 to "secure" my money coz I dont see Besiktas win or Slavia to draw - no chance - maybe next time

[demize21]

blackpool did tho

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

Can Aston Villa +100 at Wolves be a setup?

[Smogs]

Smogs,

Can Aston Villa +100 at Wolves be a setup?

I don't think so WIL, i'm doing it.........Here's my bets for the weekend, and i swear to god, i've had a friggin bad two weeks, but my season long bets are looking amazing and their returns dwarf any losses i make the last couple weeks. I have a good mind to pack the thread in till they cash in May if i don't get a winning weekend here. I have gone over these stats and i think they all offer very good value.
*Yes, you may think that packing a thread in after a couple losses is bad but hey, i'm sitting on a potential 70 Units worth of ante-post bets, i need to sort the strategy out.

Anyway, enough about that, Cardiff could still f*ck me.

Aston Villa 2.5U @ +125

Tottenham HT/FT 2.5U @ +110

Rochdale -1 2.5U @ +104

H'Field/L Orient HT Draw 1.25U @ +125

Good luck this weekend guys

I love the Villa play though Wil

[Ace_of_Spades]

Something i have learnt this season is, teams are more offensive than they have been in the last few seasons. I have made a few critical errors in that department.

GL Smogs.

[Smogs]

Got a couple more plays to throw in there -

Bristol Rovers -0.75 @ +108 2U

Colchester -0.75 -104 2U

Norwich -0.75 -115 2U

[Smogs]

Just for giggles, 1U on Ipswich in the Draw/Ipswich ht/ft option @ 5/1


A Total of 8 plays risking 15.75U

[Johnny Hipster]

Hi Smogs and others,
I like Cardiff this weekend a lot - more than a lot! Im thinking bout Ipswich as well (although that I hate to bet on a team to overcome some serie - usually a negative one) another good value is in Bmngham - Sunderland - 2 - I think that Bruce will try to win at a place from which he was "bought". Small prices bt small risk is - Arsenal, Man City and Tottenham win. The problem is that this is too many matches and we dont have to be too good in mathematics and statistics to understand that not all of these will go well. Any suggestions which ones r the worst ?? I think that Ipswich for sure, then Sunderland and then the rest looks fine to me...

[Smogs]

Yeh, i only had a dabble on ipswich because it is so risky, but i believe the value in my pick lies with the fact the half time draw looks very good. Therefore i'm getting value on ipswich to nick it in the 2nd half.
My strongest play is rochdale followed by Villa

Cardiff dnb may be an excellent bet and may have to be played, although i have a lot of units down and with so much ante-post on Cardiff i do hesitate to commit to the bet, so i may pass it up after all

[Smogs]

Well, as promised, i'll wrap up the thread. Sorry guys, i tried, and at one point was doing really well. But i cannot buy a win for the last 3/4 weeks. I will have a breather and hopefully come back after christmas on the thread. i will not leave the forums though, i like hanging out in the soccer forum, good bunch of lads on here

Keep doing what you do good

[Johnny Hipster]

smogs goes to hollywood)

you shouldnt stop bettin - I think that u know a lot - there r periods when it doesnt go as u want...u have to dig deep and continue... of course if u have to dig deep coz u r loosin money that might be well used on food or alcohol - i get it
If one way or the other - will be happy to hear frm u wt u think bout upcomin matches

Cardiff did well today so if Man City beat Fulham tomorrow - I will have the cash I have lost in last 2weeks bck + smthin more)