Smogs English Football Thread

**Smogs** · 10-01-09, 02:01 PM

ma utd sunderland under looks a cracking bet, i would go under 3 just for insurance but that should still get you near enough evens.

I don't like the others simply because of certain criteria. Burnley have won 3 straight at home and are due a correction, whilst Brum lost at the weekend and want to get at least a point here. I'd say Burnley draw.............in fact, i might play that myself

**Wilforth** · 10-01-09, 07:18 PM

Thanks for the inputs.

**theplagy** · 10-01-09, 09:31 PM

how bout Bolton not to lose at Reebok

They haven't lost to spurs at home this decade

**Smogs** · 10-02-09, 06:45 AM

Originally posted by theplagy

how bout Bolton not to lose at Reebok

They haven't lost to spurs at home this decade

Way ahead of you plagy

, already placed a unit on Bolton +0.5

**Smogs** · 10-02-09, 06:48 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Bolton +0.5ah 2 Units @ 10/11
Pompey DNB 1 Unit @ 7/4
Burnley/Brum Draw 1 Unit @ 9/4
Ipswich DNB 2 Units @ 11/10
Cardiff DNB 2 Units @ 4/5
Reading DNB 2 Units @ 1.95
Plymouth DNB 1 Unit @ 4/5

11 Units in all and here's to a good weekend

Here are the plays this weekend, i wanted to put more on but 10% of bankroll should be enough.
If i had the balls i would have just played Cardiff DNB for 10 Units, may come to regret only placing 2 units on them.

I will be betting Everton and Rochdale on Sunday but i have not placed those bets yet, waiting to see how Saturday unfolds

**Johnny Hipster** · 10-02-09, 12:39 PM

I like the price on Sheffield United - 1,63 smogs?

**Smogs** · 10-02-09, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by Johnny Hipster

I like the price on Sheffield United - 1,63 smogs?

It does look good doesn't it, dammit, i wanna play that too now! Hmmm, i'll have a think but thanks for the heads up johnny

**Johnny Hipster** · 10-03-09, 05:34 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

It does look good doesn't it, dammit, i wanna play that too now! Hmmm, i'll have a think but thanks for the heads up johnny

I searched through team info and Jamie Ward and Gary Naysmith are out. Keith Tracy and Matt Kilgallon are doubts. I know that they are all important players but dont know too much about the quality of players that will replace them. Do you still see this bet as worth the risk Smogs?

**Smogs** · 10-03-09, 06:17 AM

They should win Johnny but Donny are so tough to break down, i just can't bet it. No value. But it is a good bet and worth a unit for you. I just have a big slate of games today and it is slightly risky. Good luck if you play it though.

**** Adding 1 Unit on Bury -0.25ah to win 1.05 Units

I like this a lot and went for safety in the handicap option. I don't see them losing.

**pavyracer** · 10-03-09, 07:44 AM

Good luck smogsy!

**Smogs** · 10-03-09, 07:56 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Good luck smogsy!

Same to you, let's get it

**Smogs** · 10-03-09, 09:18 AM

Christ, 2 x2unit bets losing, at least Bolton are winning

**theplagy** · 10-03-09, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Christ, 2 x2unit bets losing, at least Bolton are winning

play of the week baby

**Smogs** · 10-03-09, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Going to forget about the Europa League tonight and just throw myself at the mercy of the PL and Championship this weekend.

Bolton +0.5ah 1 Unit @ 10/11 Win
Pompey DNB 1 Unit @ 7/4 Win
Burnley/Brum Draw 1 Unit @ 9/4 Loss
Ipswich DNB 2 Units @ 11/10 Loss
Cardiff DNB 2 Units @ 4/5 Win
Reading DNB 2 Units @ 1.95 Loss
Plymouth DNB 1 Unit @ 4/5 Win
Bury -0.25 1 Unit @ 2.05 Loss
11 Units in all and here's to a good weekend

Oh dear, F*ckin Ipswich costing me a profitable day

4-4 on the day but -0.55 Units.

Expect to see a big bet on Everton tomorrow, still have to decide whether to just concentrate on NFL for the rest of the weekend or pursue profit from the PL

**Smogs** · 10-03-09, 11:16 AM

Forget that last comment, i've just put a unit on the Under 3 Goal line that win win 0.85 Units

*In the Man Utd/Mackems Game

**Smogs** · 10-03-09, 12:49 PM

**Smogs** · 10-03-09, 10:03 PM

With a deep breath and a bit of nervousness, i am going to play some Sunday football.

Everton -1 @ 11/10 3.5 Units to win 3.85 Units

Rochdale @ 6/5 1.5 Units to win 1.8 Units

Rochdale -1 (match handicap) @ 3/1 1 Unit to win 3 Units

I had these picks lined up as early as Monday, i just don't like the fact they are on a Sunday, but i like them a lot (as does the entire betting world sadly)

**theplagy** · 10-03-09, 10:14 PM

I like all home team tomorrow in EPL

that's just scary

might end
up with 1 bet. which is chelsea

**Smogs** · 10-04-09, 05:55 AM

BOL to you plagy, i'm looking forward to watching that game, hopefully it's a good one

**Smogs** · 10-04-09, 08:17 PM

Shocking, anyway, NFL picked me up but no plays on this thread till 18th Oct. No way i am resorting to relying on the UK lower leagues to get my bankroll back up. I'm going for Everton-1 ah on the 18th as soon as it pops up, but until then (regarding this thread), have a good 2 weeks guys.

**RoagBettor** · 10-04-09, 08:39 PM

Enjoy your break Smogs! It's a smart move - nice discipline!

**Smogs** · 10-05-09, 04:18 AM

Cheers roag, and good luck with your project, i see it is doing well

**Smogs** · 10-05-09, 04:28 AM

I see the additional asian handicap is already out on Bet365, i'm taking Everton -1ah @ 1.715

4.9 Units to win 3.5

I haven't been in the red in this thread and obviously if this loses i will be. However, i was so annoyed with Everton last night i trawled their stats after scenarios like drawing at home to a bottom half team and their bouncebackability etc.
That's why this is my biggest soccer bet of the season.

*This game is not till the 18th October. I reckon the line will go down to 1/3 when people realise Wolves will not win away again all season and Everton have a very good record against promoted teams

**theplagy** · 10-05-09, 06:26 AM

have a good break

**mariomonte** · 10-05-09, 06:31 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Everton -1ah @ 1.715 4.9 Units to win 3.5

Agreed on Everton - despite their last match.
However, -1.25ah @ 2.111 has a much higher technical value, so my money went there - admittedly not 4.9 units, though.

**Smogs** · 10-05-09, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by mariomonte

Agreed on Everton - despite their last match.
However, -1.25ah @ 2.111 has a much higher technical value, so my money went there - admittedly not 4.9 units, though.

That is a good point, hell of a lot of value there but i'm playing safe. I wish us both the best of luck, i hate the international break, no one who supports a club really bothers too much for int'l footy. Not good to watch and you rarely make money

**theplagy** · 10-05-09, 08:09 PM

Heh i usually to find some good dogs to bet on in these WC qual matches

**Smogs** · 10-05-09, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by theplagy

Heh i usually to find some good dogs to bet on in these WC qual matches

I'll look out for them

I just have no idea how to approach games that have 1/12 favs and -3.5 asian handicaps etc, not used to it lol

**Smogs** · 10-09-09, 06:39 PM

Ok, after much deliberation considering that i could for the first time go into the red on this thread.....i have come up with one pick that i believe to be the very best of the weekend.
Rochdale -1ah @ 6/4 2 Units to win 3 Units

I don't want to bet that much this weekend but here are the picks i threw out over the Dale pick:

Denmark/Sweden Draw
ROI/Italy Draw
England
Chesterfield +0.5
MK Dons
Norwich

Let's see how they go but i don't want to bet anymore than the two units on Dale considering i have 4.9 Units on Everton next weekend

**Sportslover** · 10-09-09, 07:21 PM

I think Rochdale will probably beat Barnet so I think that you've got a good chance of winning your bet of Rochdale -1. Plus, you have the insurance of getting your stake back if they only win by the single goal. By selecting the -1 handicap you've increased your potential reward while providing an element of safety for your betting stake at the same time, smart move.

Good luck.

**Smogs** · 10-10-09, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by smogs

ok, after much deliberation considering that i could for the first time go into the red on this thread.....i have come up with one pick that i believe to be the very best of the weekend.
rochdale -1ah @ 6/4 2 units to win 3 units

push

**demize21** · 10-10-09, 12:39 PM

nice tip tailed your plays but took roch 10/10/09(10:00 ET)1Rochdale(League2)(1stHalf) +130

**Sportslover** · 10-10-09, 03:56 PM

So close on the Rochdale play, you were almost there before Barnet scored in the last 10 minutes....

**Smogs** · 10-11-09, 04:07 PM

Big shame there tbh, it seems i'm back in a little rut. Bring on Everton next week, biggest play of the season!

**Johnny Hipster** · 10-15-09, 12:57 PM

Hi Smogs,
this weekend I think bout bettin on these matches:
Arsenal - Bmingham 1 on HANDICAP
- Arsenal is demolishin "rubbish" teams at home so far this season and Bmingham have not lost this season by more than 1 goal - thats why I wanna bet it
Pompey - Spurs - 2
- I saw Pompey at home wit Everton when they were unfortunate to take no points but Harry knows majority of Pompey players and Spurs are much better side and I like the price of about 1,75 a lot...I like both teams to score as well eventhough that Pompey have difficulties to score but we all know how leaky Spurs defence is..

What do you think??
+ Sheffield United is missing many starters for Scunthorpe game but I dont watch this league so cannot say that Scuthorpe will win it easily coz in my opinion Scunthorpe r shit and Sheffield Utd candidates fr promotion and I dont know the quality of the "B team" of Sheffield that will play at Scunthorpe - bt Im a bit tempted to bet that Scunthorpe wont lose

.
+ Do you see Everton - Wolves as an easy home win?

thanx Smogs