Smogs English Football Thread

**Dfjay9** · 09-03-09, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

The play is on - 2 UNITS on Rochdale DNB (To win 1.51 Units)

I should have one or two more for the weekend - this game is on Friday Night

I see Rochdale at +130 but thats on the draw line not the goal line. I dont have a goal line up, which did you play.

**Smogs** · 09-03-09, 01:28 PM

I went on bet365 and got decimal odds of 1.775 on the dnb option. I was going to play the 13/8 option, which i can get for the straight up win at coral.co.uk but i want the insurance of my money back for a draw

**Smogs** · 09-03-09, 01:53 PM

My 2nd bet of the weekend and this one is a very confident pick -

Charlton to BEAT Brentford @ 4/6 - 1.5 Units (to win 1 Unit)

Charlton to BEAT Brentford -1ah @ 11/10 - 2 Units (to win 2.2 Units)

I may have one more pick, i am eyeing up Norwich at the very least, still have to do the homework though

**Wilforth** · 09-03-09, 02:11 PM

What do you think of MK DOns +140 at home against Huddersfield?

**Smogs** · 09-03-09, 02:31 PM

I like it Wil - i had them down as one of my leans and you have a very nice price for them at +140. Huddersfield will always impress at home but away they do struggle and the Dons should get the win

**Smogs** · 09-03-09, 07:09 PM

I'm adding Notts County -1 @ 1.90 2 Unit (to win 1.8)

Norwich @ 4/6 1.5 Units (to win 1)

**BarcaKA** · 09-04-09, 09:31 AM

Hey Smogs! I'm new to the site but I've read your thread and I think you do an awesome job with your picks. How do you feel about Leeds United this weekend?

**Smogs** · 09-04-09, 10:15 AM

Absolutely no value in it whatsoever Barca, i'd suggest the ah -1.5 to get more value but at 1/3, it's an obvious bet but at that level, bit risky for me. I've got a full slate of games now that i am happy and confident with

**Wilforth** · 09-04-09, 10:18 AM

Smogs,

In addition to the Rochdale PK pick, I'm also taking the Over in the Southend game.

**BarcaKA** · 09-04-09, 10:30 AM

Thanks Smogs! I'll trail the Notts pick. Cheers

**RoagBettor** · 09-04-09, 10:42 AM

BookF*cker has Rochdale PK at -130, what do you think?

**Smogs** · 09-04-09, 10:56 AM

To be fair roag - you were never going to get them better than -125. I got them at like -128 pk so i'd take it.

I actually think the rochdale pick is the riskiest of the lot, i have a lot of confidence in the other picks, especially notts county and charlton. I do still believe rochdale pick is worth 2 of my units however and i am considering bumping N County up another unit.....but i will see how tonight goes

Good luck Wil, i hope i didn't force you off the under??

**RoagBettor** · 09-04-09, 11:00 AM

Ok thanks. I saw you had 2 units on it so I figured it was one of your stronger plays. I can get Notts County -1 at -125 so I think I'll play that instead.

**Smogs** · 09-04-09, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Ok thanks. I saw you had 2 units on it so I figured it was one of your stronger plays. I can get Notts County -1 at -125 so I think I'll play that instead.

Definitely a very strong play - let's hope for the best

**Wilforth** · 09-04-09, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Good luck Wil, i hope i didn't force you off the under??

No, you didn't force me away from the Under. It's not such a good pick based on your analysis as Rochdale could come away with a 2-1 win. Whenever I decide not to make a play based on sound judgment, I feel good whatever the eventual outcome is. What helps us in the long run is what matters most.

**RoagBettor** · 09-04-09, 02:31 PM

3-0 Morecambe and the 1H isn't over. Ouch.

**Wilforth** · 09-04-09, 02:31 PM

Rochdale are ALWAYS disappointing.

**RoagBettor** · 09-04-09, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Rochdale are ALWAYS disappointing.

Yep, you called it.

**RoagBettor** · 09-04-09, 03:42 PM

3-3! What a push!

**Wilforth** · 09-04-09, 04:12 PM

The push was like a win for me. When they were 3-0 down, I already counted my bet a loss.

**Smogs** · 09-04-09, 05:30 PM

Ah well Wil, not only did you get a push, you also didn't lose on the under

I am a bit mixed over the game, my mate said that although the half time score was correct, Rochdale had enough chances to win it by 3/4

(i suppose he would say that but in the last minute they had 2 shots cleared off the line)

We will take the push and i am thinking whether to put any more units on Norwich and Notts County

Hmmmm.......

**Wilforth** · 09-04-09, 05:37 PM

No doubt, you saved me from what would have been a loss.

The Rochdale call was perfectly in order. I think some shitty defending at the end of the 1st half was their undoing. Thanks for the pick.

**RoagBettor** · 09-04-09, 05:42 PM

Smogs (and Wilforth), which do you think is stronger, the Norwich play or the Notts -1?

**Smogs** · 09-04-09, 05:56 PM

I have to be honest, i have checked them both out and i cannot split them, i am seriously thinking of putting down another 2 units on Norwich and 1.5 on notts county. That way i have 3.5 units on my 3 picks for tomorrow. I cant split them at all so i guess they are all worth the same

**Wilforth** · 09-04-09, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Smogs (and Wilforth), which do you think is stronger, the Norwich play or the Notts -1?

It's hard to tell, but because of Burton Albion's offensive potential, I'd say Notts -1 comes second to Norwich, IMHO.

**PortsDave** · 09-04-09, 06:44 PM

Notts County -1 is my big play for tomorrow, as soon as they were beat at Barnet last week, i marked this one down as a must play, i feel Burton are going to struggle against County tomorrow. Burton were beat 5-1 midweek by Chesterfield and their manager stated "It is worrying when teams have pace and movement how much of a problem it causes us” said a hugely concerned Peschisolido, “It is a wake up call because if we play the way we played the second half when we go to Notts County on Saturday we are in for another rough afternoon."

County have an abundance of pace and movement both up front and in midfield and they signed a new player yesterday on loan from Portsmouth, a pacy left winger.

**Smogs** · 09-04-09, 07:27 PM

Thanks for adding that Dave - i am going to up my unit stake on both the Norwich and County plays

Just to recap my 3 Saturday plays -

Norwich SU, 1.5 Units to win 1
Norwich -1ah, 2 Units to win 2.2

Notts County -1, 3.5 Units to win 3.3 Units

Charlton SU, 1.5 Units to win 1 Unit
Charlton -1, 2 Units to win 2.2 Units

A total of 10.5 units on, with the potential to win 9.7 units

**Vreston** · 09-04-09, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

I'm adding Notts County -1 @ 1.90 2 Unit (to win 1.8)

Norwich @ 4/6 1.5 Units (to win 1)

Hi Smogs,

Just read your picks.

I'm getting Norwich @ 1.61 and
Notts County @ 1.50

**Smogs** · 09-04-09, 08:44 PM

Yeh, not much difference Vreston, sometimes i see some American based gamblers getting stiffed on juice, i think we are lucky in Europe

**RoagBettor** · 09-04-09, 11:42 PM

Anyone like the over 2.5 on the Notts game?

**Smogs** · 09-05-09, 05:37 AM

Gotta always fancy the over a notts county game, go for it roag, looks a solid play

**Smogs** · 09-05-09, 07:13 AM

Adding 2 Units on Mansfield to win 1.5 Units

**Smogs** · 09-05-09, 08:14 AM

Always nice to start the weekend off with a win

Saturday record - 1-0-0 Up 3.2 Units

**Wilforth** · 09-05-09, 08:46 AM

Smogs,

What do you think of Colchester +190 at the perishing Southampton?

**RoagBettor** · 09-05-09, 09:54 AM

Well hopefully we'll cash one of the Notts County bets in the 2H. I have them -1 and the over 2.5.