Smogs English Football Thread

[Smogs]

Hi Smogs - how much do you follow the Championship? This is what I have just read at bbc.co.uk about Scunthorpe - Middlesbrough:

But, whereas Swansea are in transition after the loss of a popular manager and some key players, The Iron are on a high after promotion and their recent win. This could be a tougher assignment for Gareth Southgate's side.

Your thoughts ???

I actually disagree with BBC on that one, defensively, Scunny are very weak, up top they have Hooper but we Germany's no.1 defender and Wheater, both can halt Hooper.
It will be tough but only because we have no real target man, overall quality will win this one for us. I did go -0.25 though so a half stake back if we draw just to have some insurance. We cannot lose this match though if we want promotion

[Smogs]

Just adding another 2 units to make it 7 units this tuesday.

2 units on Bournemouth @ 4/5

There is real value in all 3 of my picks this Tuesday and i need just 2-1 to post a good profit.
I have started the thread slowly but now i am gearing up for sound investment. Saturday was a bad day and with me immediately going to 7 units risked just a couple of days after it i could be asking for trouble. Hopefully the value picks go hand in hand with 3 wins for me.

Games i leaned on but did not choose

Huddersfield
Blackpool
Millwall
Bradford

[Smogs]

Any reason for Apoel Nicosia Wil? i honestly haven't had any inclination to look into the CL so far this year

[Wilforth]

Nicosia is a very underrated team. This team has beaten teams like Partizan Belgrade, which I consider to be at par or even better than Copenhagen. The line is only reflective of the supposed quality gap between Cyprian and Dannish soccer. Teams that come from Western Europe are ALWAYS underrated in Europe.

[Wilforth]

Oh, I like Millwall as well.

[Smogs]

ye so did i, no way oldham win twice away from home, just have already staked too much, don't want any more bets

[Squirrel]

Smogs, just to go further into the Boro/Scunny game a moment, obviously you like the Boro to win hence the bet, but can you think of a reason WHY boro are odds against? can get them at 11/10 at the moment - it concerns me a bit when I see a team that should be odds on but are odds-against on the board, usually figure i'm missing some key element from my analysis.

[Smogs]

Well, before the odds came out i had us priced between evens and 6/4. I reasoned that with it being early in the season, plus scunny just winning, we didn't deserve to be odds against if the bookies wanted an even spread of money. Clearly the bookies do want money on boro suggesting that it will not be as easy as some people think.
It was important for me to go -0.25ah just to be certain because there is the danger of the draw.
I have a lot of friends going to the game tonight, all of them are praying, hoping, believing we can win.
I just hope the players and staff have the same mindset as us fans do.

Hope that helps Squirrel

[Smogs]

Just to quickly add, i saw them as best price 13/10 on Sunday, If they are now 11/10, then at least we have good line movement

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

Do you see anything keeping the Blackpool/Derby game UNDER 2.5?

[Smogs]

To be honest Wil, i love the under in that game. There are more and more solid picks coming to me but with 7 Units on the line i really don't want to put any more on the line. But the under looks very good in that game. I think i saw 4/5 for U2.5. I just don't see derby scoring TBH

[Wilforth]

Thanks for that info.

[Smogs]

Dammit lol, i can't help myself, the lure of an accumulator has proved too strong for me!!

1 Blackpool v Derby - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.74)
2 Ipswich v C Palace - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.13)
3 Nottm Forest v Watford - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.01)
4 Peterborough v West Brom - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92)
5 Scunthorpe v Middlesbrough - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.84)


Just 1/4 of a unit for 'interest'

'If' it wins, it actually brings in an almost exact 6 units

[Johnny Hipster]

I have read that you have couple of important players injured - right??? That is the main reason why Im scared of draw

[Smogs]

Not really johnny, we are gettin Tuncay back tonite also hopefully for a start.

We look very strong tonite, a bit weak up top but we always are since losing the trio of viduka/hasselbaink and yakubu

[Smogs]

Dammit lol, i can't help myself, the lure of an accumulator has proved too strong for me!!
1 Blackpool v Derby - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing <b>Under 2.5 Goals</b> @ 1.74)<br>
2 Ipswich v C Palace - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing <b>Over 2.5 Goals</b> @ 2.13)<br>
3 Nottm Forest v Watford - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing <b>Over 2.5 Goals</b> @ 2.01)<br>
4 Peterborough v West Brom - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing <b>Over 2.5 Goals</b> @ 1.92)<br>
5 Scunthorpe v Middlesbrough - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing <b>Under 2.5 Goals</b> @ 1.84)<br>
<br>
<br>
Just 1/4 of a unit for 'interest'

'If' it wins, it actually brings in an almost exact 6 units

Holy **** ...........IT WON!!!!!!

6.4 Unit win there + 3 won on Boro and 1.6 on Bournemouth to = 11 units won - the two lost on Wigan = 9 UNIT Profit

[Smogs]

Just to make it even better, not only did Cardiff storm to the top of the table, Chopra also scored a hat trick, meaning on all fronts, Cardiff are looking good for my ante post bets

[ZXCVBNM]

Just to make it even better, not only did Cardiff storm to the top of the table, Chopra also scored a hat trick, meaning on all fronts, Cardiff are looking good for my ante post bets

Damn, congrats on the great run.. and Michael Chopra was gold!

[Smogs]

Cheers, i couldn't believe when they said he scored a hat trick.

I won't have any bets for the weekend until i set up at the Golden Nugget, I assume there is free wifi in the hotel??
Maybe i can share some info with you american sports cappers in Vegas

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

How many reasons are there why Chesterfield +165 shouldn't beat an overachieving Notts?

[Phillth]

Cheers, i couldn't believe when they said he scored a hat trick.

I won't have any bets for the weekend until i set up at the Golden Nugget, I assume there is free wifi in the hotel??
Maybe i can share some info with you american sports cappers in Vegas

LOL! free wifi. The hotels usually charge $12 per day

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

How many reasons are there why Chesterfield +165 shouldn't beat an overachieving Notts?

I asked it while leaning Chesterfield +165. I was proved right! I hate to see fake overachiving teams like Notts County as a favorite against a solid Chesterfield.

[Squirrel]

I asked it while leaning Chesterfield +165. I was proved right! I hate to see fake overachiving teams like Notts County as a favorite against a solid Chesterfield.

Notts County, Manchester City and Real Madrid are THREE teams that are going to be great fade material on asian handicaps this season, IMO.

[Wilforth]

Squirrel,

Sharp minds like you delight me a great deal. Notts County, Man City and Real Madrid will not only be good AH fades but in the case of Real Madrid, they'll be a good 1st half fade against some naughty teams that are 1st half dogs of about +500 to +800. Just as an aside, do you know that in the NBA, fading the Lakers 1H on the ATS line is highly profitable? Teams that believe in the ability of their "stars" tend to take 1Hs foregranted.

[Johnny Hipster]

Smogs knows his steez

Well done with Scuns - Boro game Smogs

[Smogs]

Thanks guys,

Wil - sorry i didn't get back to you about notts county game, i was travelling to Vegas and have just got it. Hope you cashed on Chesterfield though

I am going down to one of the sportsbooks in the Nugget later to check out the weekend bets and will try to post them on here before K.O's on Saturday. I hear there are free drinks tonight though so i may be sh*tfaced.

Good luck with your weekend bets

[Wilforth]

I'm looking forward to Everton (+100) on Sunday. Burnley disgraced Man Utd in their last home game and I figure Everton will take them back to where they belong. Mind you, Everton is also of the decent road teams in the EPL.

[Smogs]

TBH, i hadn't seen the odds but did like Everton, was hopin to get them at a better price tho

I'll see what prices they offer at the casino and then i may just hav to take the bad price and bet them anyway

[SmartY]

I liked better the draw in this game, in the last 6 games NONE of both teams had a draw; also, the line movement, with all the bettors on Everton the line moved from 2.05 to 2.20, I don't buy that, if I was to bet on this one, it would be a draw, low stakes

[Wilforth]

SmartY,

I agree with you 1000% on that analysis. I may tail the draw if the line movement continues to suggest so.
I'll be also be playing Genoa +140 at home to humiliate whatever is left of Roma.

[ji03]

Do you guys like Wigan +1 against Man U or do you think they will come out and play to prove they are better than that?

[Smogs]

I would never bet against man utd with a team as bad as wigan

[Wilforth]

Man Utd will beat Wigan comprehensively. I think it will be the turn of either Arsenal or Chelsea to not win. They have a rotation policy among the big four as to which of them shouldn't win. Liverpool and Man Utd have taken their turn in helping the books. It may now be Arsenal's or Chelsea's turn. They move it around in such a manner as not to raise any suspicion.

[Smogs]

Just got a bet on pinny for Man City -1.5 @ +102 for 1.5 Units

[Johnny Hipster]

Man U

Do you guys like Wigan +1 against Man U or do you think they will come out and play to prove they are better than that?

What I really fancy in this game is not only that Man U will win it but I will even go for handicap. I dont fancy Wigan to score a goal against Man U (Vidic will be back!) and Valencia will be running on his used to be home pitch. I expect Berbatov and Rooney up front Manchester will win this match not only because they lost the last one but also because the next one will be Man U at home against Arsenal so they need to win this one to be in a good shape mentally. I expect a thorough performance from Man U today!
Wigan Athletic - Manchester United 1:0
Premier League
22.8.2009 16:00 Handicap
2.3 (Jetbull)

Anny comments?