EP36's Equalizers

EaglesPhan36 · 08-14-09, 09:57 PM

Play #57: [Switzerland Axpo Super League] St.Gallen -150
St.Gallen hosts Bellinzona which has gotten lit up in two away matches early this season. Bellinzona has conceded 8 goals in those two matches, losing both by 2 goals or more. St.Gallen is 1-0-1 at home, conceding just one goal and scoring 3. Bellinzona has just one win in three matches and that came at home against one of the bottom of the table teams so far in Aarau. St.Gallen has played some of the big boys tough on the road, drawing with Young Boys and losing 1-0 at Zurich. Being at home against a team struggling to stop goals, should give them a chance for all three points.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-14-09, 10:42 PM

Pick #58: [English Premier] Aston Villa -140
Winging it here, but most of the information I read has sided with Aston Villa at home as one of the best plays in the Premier League's opening weekend. Even though I'm more of a form/stats junkie, gonna take a try here and see how it works out.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-15-09, 11:00 AM

Now I know why I didn't want to bet on any of the big league's early in the season before I could see some form. Nice egg Aston Villa!

EaglesPhan36 · 08-15-09, 12:39 PM

Play #57 Result: [L]
Play #58 Result: [L] 33-19-6 (+11.38)

Piss poor.

kmarinouofm · 08-15-09, 01:01 PM

tough breaks today homie.. those two unders i sent you hit..

EaglesPhan36 · 08-15-09, 04:24 PM

Play #59: [Brazil Serie A] Santo Andre vs. Internacional OVER 2.5/3 (+108)
This is all about Internacional. 7 straight matches have hit 3 goals or more & 9 of their last 10 overall. They have conceded 8 goals in their last 3 away matches, while scoring 5. Santo Andre does not score much, but they have scored at least 1 in 4 of 5. They have just one clean sheet in 9 home matches. Internacional has scored 17 goals in their last 7 league matches, so they should be able to hit the back of the net for a couple perhaps. If Santo Andre nets one, this should get to 3 with little trouble and at least get a half stakes win.

kmarinouofm · 08-15-09, 04:27 PM

lets get it homie.. i was able to play this over at betus for -130 at 2.5.... I hate playing the dual lines if I don't have to..

EaglesPhan36 · 08-15-09, 04:44 PM

Yeah I hear ya. I think Internacional might have to get this 3-0 to win, but 2-1 also seems likely since their D has been a little leaky lately. I'd really like 3-1!

EaglesPhan36 · 08-15-09, 05:08 PM

Damn need someone to score before the half, otherwise looks like a clean sweep 0-3 today.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-15-09, 06:01 PM

Play #59 Result: [L] 33-20-6 (+10.38)

Just an absolute horse shit day. Too much soccer to process. Think I need to just narrow it down and not even pay attention to the big leagues before they play a handful of matches. Booooo!

Phillth · 08-15-09, 08:03 PM

Good idea. I didnt touch Premier league today. Just sat back and enjoyed opening day. I will take the over in Hotsperm / Liverpool match tomorrow. Gonna watch that one at the pub.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 09:58 AM

Play #60: [English Premier] Tottenham vs. Liverpool OVER 2.5 (+100)
Stupid play likely, but Tottenham was scoring fairly regularly in their friendlies and Liverpool had some defensive difficulties in their friendlies, while also scoring some. Was gonna go for the split 2/2.5 total, but F it. Balls to the wall baby.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 11:27 AM

Play #60 Result: [W] 34-20-6 (+11.38)

Sometimes stupidity is rewarded. Was also lucky that I wasn't quick enough to make a live bet on the under. Probably means I shouldn't play any more soccer today! But when does that stop a degenerate? NEVER!

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 01:01 PM

Play #61: [Croatia HNL] Dinamo Zagreb vs. Osijek OVER 3.5 (-116)
Dinamo has scored 16 goals in just league games early in the Croatian season, while conceding just 3. Osijek has let in at least one in all three of their matches against much less powerful clubs than Dinamo. In their lone road match, Osijek let in 2 against Sibenik which has scored just 3 more goals in their 3 other matches. They did manage to tally 2 of their own goals in that one as well. Outside of their 7 goal outburst in their opener against Istra which has yielded 13 total goals, most of Dinamo's other opponents have shown better defense in the rest of their league games. For me, that means Dinamo is just that good offensively. Dinamo does have a Europa League match mid-week, but as they showed in Champions League qualis, they don't get derailed no matter what matches are on-tap. Dinamo may need to do all the damage in this one and I think if Osijek finds the back of the net, a 4 goal total or better is pretty likely.

kmarinouofm · 08-16-09, 01:26 PM

dude is there any reason why we shouldn't be laying the wood on san palo todaY?

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 01:51 PM

No particulary my man. I have been sitting on that one all day, looking and thinking it's too easy. Draw was my only worry perhaps, but BetPhoenix just put up a PK line ... so ...

Play #62: [Brazil Serie A] Sao Paulo PK -120
Hot team rising, Recife still residing in the cellar. Recife hasn't won in 8 matches. Sao Paulo is unbeaten in 7 straight, including 5 straight wins. Paulo's beaten better on the road, so they have a legit shot here & one would think even if Recife steps up, a draw would be the best they can do.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 03:09 PM

Play #61 Result: [W] 35-20-6 (+12.38)

Dinamo did do all the work. 5-0 with a couple goals in the 85th minute plus!

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 03:54 PM

Play #62 Result: [W] 36-20-6 (+13.38)

That was f-ing clutch. Hugo scores a goal in injury time to break a 1-1 tie and Sao Paulo had been playing down a man since the 70th minute!

kmarinouofm · 08-16-09, 04:05 PM

Holy shit man. Holy shit

kmarinouofm · 08-16-09, 04:07 PM

Dude i was On them big from yesterday but had the -.5 at +120 so I thought my money was long gone after the second red card

MexicanStallion · 08-16-09, 04:07 PM

Nice work buddy. Looks like it has been your day in all sports.

Wilforth · 08-16-09, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by kmarinouofm

dude is there any reason why we shouldn't be laying the wood on san palo todaY?

Thinking the same thing!

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 04:15 PM

Play #63: [Brazil Serie A] Atletico Paranaense vs. Gremio Barueri OVER 2.5/3 (-103)
Barueri comes in as the best scoring outfit in Serie A with 38 goals in 18 matches this season. They have conceded 25. Atletico has scored just 18, but yielded 29. At home, Atletico has scored 10 goals and conceded 16 in 9 matches. On the road, Barueri has tallied 16 and also given up 17 in 9 matches. Bareuri's matches average 3.5 goals, 2nd best in Serie A. Atletico's average about a goal less, but they have still reached totals of 3 or higher in half their 18 matches. Barueri has reached 3 or more goals in 13 of 18 with 10 of those hitting 4 or more. Atletico usually defends the teams without high octane offenses, but they get touched by the class of the better teams. Bareuri has had trouble stopping teams on the road, conceding 10 in their last 5 while scoring 8. Overall, they have scored 9 in their last 5 and given up 7. 6 of their 9 road matches have hit at least 3 goals. Atletico has scored at least 1 goal in 4 of their last 5. If they get on the score sheet, I'm fairly confident Barueri can do the rest and get this to at least a half stakes win at 3. Barueri is certainly capable of doing it all by themselves as well.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 05:44 PM

Play #64: [Copa Columbia] Deportivo Pereira vs. Santa Fe Bogota OVER 2.5 (-102)
Deportivo has been a goal scoring machine on home soil in early league play and in Copa matches. In their last 4 home matches, which includes 2 in Copa play, they have banged home 14 goals. 10 of those goals came in Copa play. That includes a 4-1 demolishment of top of the table Atletico Huila, so it hasn't been cupcake city by any means. Bogota has found goals plentiful in their Copa matches as well with their last two tallying 4 goal totals with Bogota scoring 5 goals and yielding 3. Including their league matches, Bogota's last 7 matches have hit 3 or more goals five times. In their 10 Copa matches combined, Deportivo has scored 21 & conceded 13. Bogota has scored 19 & conceded 10 in 10 matches as well. This one may well end 1-1, but at the price and with Deportivo's goal scoring prowess recently at home, I'll pull the trigger and look for 3. This one jumps off at 7pm ET for anyone who cares.

Wilforth · 08-16-09, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Play #64: [Copa Columbia] Deportivo Pereira vs. Santa Fe Bogota OVER 2.5 (-102)

Wilforth · 08-16-09, 05:56 PM

EP36,

What do you think of this tomorrow:

Singapore: DPMM (-105) at home against Super Reds. DPMM are 10-0-1 at home. Their only home loss was against the league leaders, Armed Forces.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 05:56 PM

I'm feelin' good today my brutha. 20 minutes to try and get the 4th goal for the full stakes win in the Brazil match, so we'll see what's what!

I'll have to look around at tomorrow's matches. Will have some stuff later after I get to crunch some numbers now that I'm done with today.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 06:28 PM

Play #63 Result: [W] 37-20-6 (+13.88)

Had to settle for the half stakes win. Shocked that Barueri didn't get a goal. Thank goodness Atletico got 3.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-09, 06:45 PM

Looks like the Copa match is gonna end the day on a bit of a downer, but still a good bounce back for me overall after yesterday's BS.

Wilforth · 08-16-09, 07:37 PM

The books will always laugh last!

TodaysAction · 08-16-09, 11:11 PM

Good morning EaglesPhan36,

If you have a chance would you break down the Dundee United/Hearts of Midlothian game for the 17th? I don't have a problem with using your choice and the 'draw' option to grind out a 'chunk of change'. The books I check lines with make this option often and lines are for regulation time only. TIA and

.

WOK · 08-16-09, 11:48 PM

EaglesPHan, do you think that the Metallurg / Sibir (Russia) would be an under? Seems like Metallurg has a good defense but not much offense. I looked at their schedule and it looks like they loose by 1 point. Also, maybe Metallurg +1.5 might be a play.

Secondly, do you think that Ska Energia PK -.5 over Luch Energia would be safe?
Thanks in advance. WOK

kmarinouofm · 08-17-09, 12:13 AM

Nice day today homie...san palo still has me smiling..

EaglesPhan36 · 08-17-09, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by WOK

EaglesPHan, do you think that the Metallurg / Sibir (Russia) would be an under? Seems like Metallurg has a good defense but not much offense. I looked at their schedule and it looks like they loose by 1 point. Also, maybe Metallurg +1.5 might be a play.

Secondly, do you think that Ska Energia PK -.5 over Luch Energia would be safe?
Thanks in advance. WOK

I looked at that Metallurg one a bit before I saw your post, so I had it on the radar. I think you could make a case for taking them +1.5. They have lost a crapload of games on the road, but the majority have been 1 goal losses lately & I think you have to go back two months to the last time they lost a goal by at least 2. It'd probably be what I played if I played it. No opinion on that other one.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-17-09, 12:58 AM

[/quote]

Originally posted by TodaysAction

Good morning EaglesPhan36,

If you have a chance would you break down the Dundee United/Hearts of Midlothian game for the 17th? I don't have a problem with using your choice and the 'draw' option to grind out a 'chunk of change'. The books I check lines with make this option often and lines are for regulation time only. TIA and

.

I don't know much about Scottish football. I really think it's tough to win coming out of the gate in leagues before you can get some sense of form for a team. I read both teams have some injury problems, so for me, I would pass on it. The English Premier League is about the only one I have tried early just because a lot of the big clubs were involved in friendlies and tournaments that help you get some idea.