€200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

[Division]

I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.

Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.

Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.

I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.

I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill

*This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example.

*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.

[Stackzilla]

BOL! Looking forward to seeing you succeed.

[rgrant2214]

Good luck sir!

[Don_Omarion]

best of luck , bro

[Division]

Betting Round 1:

English Premier League
Hull v West Brom
Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
Stake: €67

English Premier League
Swansea v Crystal Palace
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
Stake: €56

English Premier League
Man Utd v West Ham
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
Stake: €77

[Enkhbat]

How do you calculate the expected strike rate and expected value?

[Division]

Basically I assign a percentage to the chance of each team scoring 1 goal, 2 goals, 3 goals, ect. This can then be used to price up quite a few markets in football (soccer) Once you have this the expected value is related to the odds offered by the bookmakers.

The goal percentages are influenced by many factors from what I see when I watch that teams previous games, how they play against similar teams, home and away form, motivation, travel distance, injuries & suspensions, ect.

[Division]

Thanks guys, will need a bit of luck with this staking plan.

[Division]

Results - Betting Round 1

Hull 1-1 West Brom
Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace
Man Utd 1-1 West Ham

Current Balance: €282

[rgrant2214]

Great job so far!

[Don_Omarion]

good luck , and way to go man

[dreamchaser]

Keep it up!

[Division]

Betting Round 2:

English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
Stake: €82

Spanish Primera Division
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
Stake: €102

Champions League
Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
Stake: €98

[Division]

Results - Betting Round 2

Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund

Current Balance: €294

[Division]

Betting Round 3

English Premier League
Everton v Arsenal
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
Stake: €81

English Premier League
West Ham v Burnley
Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
Stake: €108

English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Man Utd
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
Stake: €105

[calvin34242]

i turned 35 dollars sat into 3500 sun good lucks with ur goal

[Division]

Well done Calvin, enjoy the win.

[calvin34242]

i see u bet alot of favs, i'm more into team totals over 2.5 goals over 3.5 goals looking for at least 3-1 or higher value

[Division]

Which would you rather?

Bet Team A to win at odds of 4/6 when you think they will win 68.7% of the time.
Bet Team B to win at odds of 3/1 when you think they will win 26% of the time.

Don't confuse big odds with big value.

[calvin34242]

i don't like to bet more to win less, also i don't like bet teams to win anymore i do but not as often, i used bet alot underdogs i would get the 1st goal alot, have late leads and lose to equalizers late, it was very painful , now i have live betting offered i bet team totals, i don't care who wins the game

[Division]

Results - Betting Round 3

Everton 2-1 Arsenal
West Ham 1-0 Burnley
Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

Current Balance: €406

[Division]

Betting Round 4:

English Premier League
Tottenham v Burnley
Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
Stake: €99

English Premier League
West Ham v Hull
Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €152

English Premier League
Everton v Liverpool
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
Stake: €155

[Division]

Results - Betting Round 4

Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
West Ham 1-0 Hull
Everton 0-1 Liverpool

Current Balance: €190

English Premier League
Everton v Man City
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
Stake: €58

English Premier League
Swansea v Arsenal
Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
Stake: €64

Spanish La Liga
Sevilla v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
Stake: €68

[Division]

Results - Betting Round 5

Swansea 0-4 Arsenal
Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid
Everton 4-0 Man City

Current Balance: €197

German Bundesliga
Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7%
Stake: €62

English Premier League
Man City v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €58

English Premier League
West Brom v Sunderland
Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6%
Stake: €77

[Division]

Results - Betting Round 6

Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
Man City 2-2 Tottenham
West Brom 2-0 Sunderland

Current Balance: €290

German Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3%
Stake: €102

Spanish La Liga
Espanyol v Sevilla
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €81

Spanish La Liga
Betis v Barcelona
Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8%
Stake: €107

[Division]

Results - Betting Round 7

Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla
Betis 1-1 Barcelona

Current Balance: €138

English Premier League
Middlesbrough v West Brom
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred
Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7%
Stake: €43

English Premier League
Liverpool v Chelsea
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill
Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €36

English Premier League
Man Utd v Hull
Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1%
Stake: €52

[bettingmosquito]

Good luck bro, you can do it.

[Division]

Results - Betting Round 8

Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
Man Utd 0-0 Hull

Current Balance: €137

English Premier League
Stoke v Crystal Palace
Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3%
Stake: €53

English Premier League
Liverpool v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral
Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6%
Stake: €39

German Bundesliga
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1%
Stake: €45

[Division]

Results - Betting Round 9

Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

Current Balance: €69

Champions League
Benfica v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €22

Champions League
Real Madrid v Napoli
Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4%
Stake: €25

Champions League
PSG v Barcelona
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7%
Stake: €22

[Division]

I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high.

To quote my opening post:

"This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example."

I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.

Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.