Yeah, I read that the first time. I suppose it was her effort to get it just perfect. Of course, I'm not complaining about the extra time, the view was nice.
I’m heading out with the kids for a nice bike ride, it’s Friday and I don’t want to do much work.
But I will offer this for tonight’s game between Miami and Charlotte. Often used numbers, enough to comprise a decent share of the marketplace (a share that the books love to eat up) that are non-predictive go so far as to give Charlotte the win in this game.
Figure these guys and those who bet with them to have Charlotte winning by as many as 6 points in a game around 195 or 196 points.
Sharper forecasts really give Miami the nod and one of the sharper, most dynamic lines I can make give Miami about a 5 point win, a little less as certain market based metrics pull the line down a bit. Sharper lines figure a 198 or 199 point game, a little more than the unsophisticated bettors.
I’m not offering much now as far as who is where and what pressure is where but you can see that the books have a nice split situation on their hands.
Sure, I could say watch out for the one point Charlotte win, or something, but I think it’s best to just say going with my sharpest model, if you re in for the long haul, is always pretty safe and it’s either Miami +2 or to win with better than +115, anything less would be not worth it.
This is because it’s not a bad idea to pass on this game as nothing really indicates the model has to hit. Looking at short term metrics, they too are a bit split and there is no outright reason why Charlotte couldn’t take this game. It’s just the nature of the NBA marketplace, and because of that we can gain valuable information for future opportunities by simply watching this game.
Good Luck whatever your play.