Originally Posted by
KVB
Well, it's impossible to score 23.82 ande 20.87 points so you have to adjust it to a more likely score, right?
Many would just round and in football that would be a mistake because of the nature of scoring in the game. But, in this particular example, lol, rounding works.
First, you literally have a tie game with a Bears "home field" advantage, whether that's in the makeup of your formula or not. Stay with me here. You have literally been driven to it by the info that is out there.
Make no mistake, it's the start of the week and Thursday night, it's by design. The most frequent team score in the NFL over the last 20 years is 20 and it's rising with rising scores. The most frequent margin of victory in that same sample of data is 3. The most frequent Total? Take a guess on the top two.
The market is steering the money.
Anyway, if we round you have Chicago winning 24-21. Those are pretty realistic football scores, a realistic Total, and there's that 3 point margin of victory.
Now if you had a forecast of, say, 11.8 points. Would you just round to 12? How often does a team score 12 points? You might consider a more realistic score of 10, or maybe 13.
A lot of that can depend on how you arrive at the forecast. However you arrived, the numbers aren't surprising.
I always say it takes 4 weeks of data to rally get the ball rolling.
Well, welcome to week 5, when the sharp money comes into play.