Not a lot of movement this past week, but Trump needs to work in GA and NC, where he continues to trend down slightly. He may have an opening to do some damage to Harris in NV, but PA is where he could sink her. He’s in Butler today with Elon Musk.
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Harris has had couple of poor polls in the 4 swing states where she currently holds slight leads. Nationally, she’s gone from a 3.4% lead to 3.0%. Trump, while looking secure in ARI and GA, is dropping a bit in NC. Overall, there’s been little polling going on.Comment -
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What drives the numbers at Polymarket, or, for that matter, all sportsbooks everywhere, is the amount of money wagered. So, although Polymarket shows Trump a favorite in the race, what drives their numbers is merely reflective of what the books need to recover in terms of dollars. Further, what kind of bettor wagers on Trump vs Harris? It’s big bettors vs small bettors – a $1000 bet vs $10. You think Peter Thiel doesn’t watch the polls? The smart bet today, and I mean at this moment, is probably Harris (because it's cheaper), but Thiel wants Trump money, and he'll get it. But, the fact is the race is still just too close to call.Comment -
With all the time both candidates have spent in Pennsylvania this past week, I’d expected more movement than has happened. A Quinnipiac poll has Trump up a micron in WI and MI, but down in PA – which, right now, has all the marbles – where Harris steadily leads by a tad. Assuming Trump cannot deny Harris PA, a play for Wisconsin might be a better strategy. Trump taking WI would mean both would lack 270, and the House would hand the win to Trump. He’d have to make up a lot of ground there, where Harris has a solid 2% lead, but it looks like he can’t make enough headway in PA to stop her.Comment
