Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[Fidel_CashFlow]

I noticed you setting on your lead and Jmon sneaked up and got ya. The only play I took a flyer on was the Royals last night, but had to take a shot in case the Series ended, which it did. Other than that...betpoints = real money for me as I bet my contest plays.

Nice hit on the Royals series!!!!

what can I say, I dont really follow the contests as hardcore as others.

regardless if I was unaware or not, it took some hardcore capping from you in the World Series to overtake

much props my friend

[Fidel_CashFlow]

the hell with our 2nd and 3rd place finishes in some online contest
fukk my series bet win on Royals, as well as your cashes in the World Series
the real congrats goes out to the Kansas City Royals organization finishing it this year

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Ny Times Poll — Would You Kill Baby Hitler?





Only 40% answered YES.
30% said they wouldn't kill baby Hitler
and the rest were not sure whether they could kill him.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

1

sweep

7-0-0

100.00 %

W 7

82.0

+8.00

[KVB]

Ahh shit!...Just noticed Javy is changing avatars again!...let's take some wagers on what his next one will be?...

-125 something funny

-120 something sexy

-115 something having to do with sports

-110 something to do with music

+EV something to do with the Joker

Was there a field bet? No movie category. Does this count as sexy?

How are we grading this play?

[KVB]

My bad, just realized the bet was about smokenj, I don't think he has one yet...bet is still live.

Nice avi Cashflow.

[KVB]

We are only in week 4 of the NFL but I think I’ll suggest a play tonight. For tonight’s game my early (not necessarily really sharp) metrics indicate Seattle winning this game with 31 points to Detroit’s 20. Seattle just plain has a better offense and defense. This line opened with Seattle -9.5 and none of us should be surprised that it is at 10, as it seems much of the public is on Seattle.

There has been much discussion on SBR about consensus numbers and bet totals often listed on the internet. Bettors often like to see who the “public” is on and think this information can help them. Sometimes it can.

I’ve posted a few times about how these numbers don’t have to be accurate and the sources often can be questioned. I’ve mentioned that nobody has any responsibility towards the accuracy of those numbers.

Let me clarify something. Many websites put up “consensus numbers” which is simply a tally of posts, contests, etc. of where the traffic on that website, or group of websites, would be betting, if they were placing money.

I shouldn’t have to explain too much about the difference between what one would play, if one were betting, and what one would actually play if money was at stake. Often times there is a difference between picking a team for fun or contest, and actually putting your money where your typing fingers are.

This difference makes many of these consensus numbers worthless. A more valuable piece of information would be what bettors are actually buying. SportsInsights offers a service that gives you the actual percentage of bets placed, not the dollar amount, for each game. When it says 65% of the bets are on Seattle, it means that 65% of the tickets at the participating books are on Seattle. I think ESPN may use them.

One way bettors use this information is when comparing it to line movements. In general, the betting marketplace comprises a large betting public betting a small percentage of the money. They write a lot of tickets, but the amounts are small when compared to the small percentage of bettors and syndicates plays that make up most of the actual money wagered.

So when, say, 75% of the tickets written are on the home team, but that line moves towards the road team, we have what they call Reverse Line Movement. Usually, but not always, this indicates larger money plays, which moved the line, are being made by bettors from that small percentage group.

The books understand this and often use line movements to not only protect themselves from risk, but also to confuse bettors trying to navigate the marketplace. Books work with oddsmakers to even use movement to draw money, or make it flow, a specific direction.

So what does this have to do with tonight’s game? This thread has been about analyzing the marketplace. You have seen me explain things about the market, as well as use unnamed metrics to guide the posts and plays. While I have Seattle winning by 10 points, I have metrics that indicate this moneyline will fail. Further, based on analysis that goes much further than this game alone, I believe the books have employed some of the techniques above over the weeks to basically sell plays to bettors, in what seems to be preparation for a big upset. One example would the attempt to sell certain groups the San Francisco 49ers, when they played Green Bay. Indeed, GB had a rougher time in Santa Clara than their other games and SF tightened up a bit from their earlier debacles. But in the end the favorite prevailed.

There are other examples, and other techniques used, but my point is that a larger picture indicates the markets are hiding an upset. When working with the NFL, sniffing out these upsets can require far more patience than the other markets. In general, the required patience for the NFL is much more than other leagues and, to make matters worse, the markets offer temptation after temptation to try a bettor’s patience.

My metrics indicate patience is running thin for certain results and a 10 point line is designed to force certain bettors to pass on the side and lay almost prohibitively on the obvious choice, Seattle to win. As far as public and sharp money are concerned, it stands to reason most all of them like the Seattle to win this game.

Sure, it’s fine do go with the sharps over the long haul, but we’ve seen, a few times now, my market analysis make the sharp line just a little sharper…something I addressed very earlier in this thread.

I have seen this process develop over nearly 4 full weeks and have gone ahead with my market metrics and look to settle the brewing situation with a result of Detroit Lions +10 and +450 over the Seattle Seahawks.

It’s not bold because it’s not the CFL, but some turnovers leading to points for Detroit and a potentially struggling Seattle offense could make this a close enough game. Shit, the NFL has many ways to bring us the unlikely 10 point upset, let’s see if they use on tonight.

Good Luck...

If you missed the play, Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor forced a Calvin Johnson at Seattle's one-yard line. After the ball left Johnson's hands, it rolled into the end zone, where it was batted out of bounds by Seahawks linebacker K.J. Wright.
The NFL's head of officiating, Dean Blandino, admitted after the game that the back judge should've called illegal batting. If the call had been made, the Lions would've have gotten the ball at Seattle's 1-yard line with under two minutes left and the Seahawks up 13-10.


The ref who made illegal batting famous by not flagging it at the end of the Seahawks-Lionsgame in Week 4 won't be suspended, but he will reassigned.
According to ProFootballTalk.com, back judge Greg Wilson will work the Dolphins-Titansgame this weekend instead of the Sunday night game between New England and Indianapolis.
The thinking behind the move is that the NFL didn't want Wilson working a primetime game just two weeks after his Monday night blunder.

[JMon]

Undefeated NFL teams do not like to lose on prime time Monday. Well at least that's what history tells us since 1989..

Since 1989 we have seen undefeated teams on Monday go 26-3 SU and 23-5-1 ATS. Average line -6.3, clearing the spread by 6.69 on average. Most recently, we saw the Packers do this against the Chiefs this year.

[KVB]

My forecasts have gone 11-2 this week against the offered moneyline, including Denver to win, and I predict Carolina to win 31 - 27.

This is generally not good news for Carolina but other metrics tell a different story. I seem to be adding up the reasons to, not necessarily take Indy, but to not take Carolina.

We get enough of those and it just might be Carolina winning on this final game of the first half of the season.

We just cleaned up with Carolina last week, is it safe to go to that well again?

[JMon]

Fidel...thanks for the competition in the MLB contest!.. While I am a volume player in MLB, I did end up playing 200+ games less than last year! Hitting the key 53% on 900+ plays, I generated over 30u profit-contest and real. Your ass had me spot playing and studying which made me better overall.

Cheers to the successful beat down to our competitors- aside Yisman...christ! So you know...I will be aiming for your ass in the NBA contest as well. I'm sure you remember last year. Count the last year champ....coming after your ass too. Regardless...some one needs to beat yisman! I don't care who!!!

http://contests.sportsbookreview.com/mlb-stealing-home-challenge-contest-5300/

[Fidel_CashFlow]

lot of ppl woulda been watching the consensus closely and copying your final play(you know its true LOL)
but I was more caught up in the World Series as a fan and Royals finishing it out
Did not want it going to a 6th or 7th game , wanted it to end last night(after what MadBum did to KC last year)

[Fidel_CashFlow]

My bad, just realized the bet was about smokenj, I don't think he has one yet...bet is still live.

Nice avi Cashflow.

Thanks man, why haven't you ever thrown up an avi ?

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[KVB]

Thanks man, why haven't you ever thrown up an avi ?

I guess no avi has become the avi.

I'll go pro before 3K points then we'll see.

Probably going pro very soon. When I signed up I said I would always have more points than posts.



4k in posts already and I took a sometime off over the year. That was unexpected...

[JMon]

[smokenjoke]

[CountNo_Account]

In baseball with all the min bet DQs I finished just a couple of spots out of top ten. Pretty decent for my first baseball season ever.

[PerfectGrape]

behind the scenes look into KVB's "unnamed metrics"

[PerfectGrape]

See that guy? Keep a good eye on him. KVB's makin' a lot of money for us. And he's gonna continue makin' a lot of money for us, so keep a good eye on him.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Bowling Green -20 tonight

[Fidel_CashFlow]

In the last two games, BGSU has outscored opponents 107-10.
Bowling Green has scored 86 unanswered points

[Fidel_CashFlow]

See that guy? Keep a good eye on him. KVB's makin' a lot of money for us. And he's gonna continue makin' a lot of money for us, so keep a good eye on him.

http://www.anyclip.com/movies/casino/ace-and-remo/#!quotes/

[Fidel_CashFlow]

http://www.roundersmovie.com/sounds/check.wav

[PerfectGrape]

In the last two games, BGSU has outscored opponents 107-10.
Bowling Green has scored 86 unanswered points

what's their defense gonna do tonight?

S&P offense rankings
kent state: 128th (let up 0 pts)
akron: 103rd (let up 10 pts, akron 4TO)
umass: 70th (let up 38 pts)
ohio: 75th (???)

that being said, i took bg for win #32
Season 31-40-1 -24.47u

[Fidel_CashFlow]

what's their defense gonna do tonight?

S&P offense rankings
kent state: 128th (let up 0 pts)
akron: 103rd (let up 10 pts, akron 4TO)
umass: 70th (let up 38 pts)
ohio: 75th (???)

that being said, i took bg for win #32
Season 31-40-1 -24.47u

I see what ur saying there,but I dont think Ohio's offense is dynamic enough to explode
on Bowling Green.... especially how Bowling Greens defense has played the last 8-10 quarters.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

ohh yeah, then there is this also

Ohio has a bigger injury report than any other team



11/04/15 DL Casey Sayles Knee "?" Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 TE Connor Brown Illness is downgraded to expected to miss Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 CB Curtis Brunson Undisclosed is downgraded to expected to miss Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 DE Trent Smart Foot is downgraded to expected to miss Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 DL Watson Tautuiaki Knee expected to miss Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 OL Joe Anderson Groin is downgraded to expected to miss Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 OT Joe Lowery Groin is downgraded to expected to miss Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 LB Jovon Johnson Ankle "?" Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 FS Kylan Nelson Groin is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 FS Nathan Carpenter Groin is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 -DB Devin Bass Thumb expected to miss Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 OL Durrell Wood Undisclosed probable Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 -DB Grant Cunningham Foot expected to miss Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 WR Herman Brunis Knee is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 -WR Jarid Brown Head expected to miss Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/04/15 QB JD Sprague Shoulder is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/03/15 RB Papi White Knee is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
11/01/15 DL Brandon Purdum Undisclosed "?" Wednesday vs. Bowling Green
10/20/15 LB Quentin Poling Knee expected to miss 2 weeks
08/26/15 TE Troy Mangen Knee out for season

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[JMon]

In baseball with all the min bet DQs I finished just a couple of spots out of top ten. Pretty decent for my first baseball season ever.

I noticed Counter!!! I noticed you gaining in the latter season. I give you props for finishing!! I can't say that for others. You will be so much better next year! Cheers bro!

[JMon]

behind the scenes look into KVB's "unnamed metrics"

Isn't it amazing we all different ways of capping! Pull us together and it would be an utter fukkin mess.!!!!!!!

[JMon]

Yisman...posting 2-2x plays in one night on NBA contest. Hope that is an error!

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Jmon , you familiar with eating AVB?

[JMon]

No.scared

[Fidel_CashFlow]

No.scared