Yield Curve Inversion

[Sanity Check]

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January 19, 2017

China still dumping U.S. debt -- and so is Japan.

According to figures released by the Treasury Department on Wednesday evening, China's holdings of U.S. government bonds fell $66 billion in November to $1.05 trillion. It is the sixth straight month that China has reduced its exposure to U.S. Treasuries.


Since May, the value of China's Treasury holdings has dropped by nearly $195 billion. Japan passed China in October to become the largest foreign owner of U.S. debt.
But Japan has leaped ahead of China only by default. Japan too cut back on its Treasury holdings in November, reducing them by $23.3 billion to about $1.11 trillion.This is the fourth straight month that Japan has pulled back on U.S. debt. It has cut its holdings by $46 billion since July.

https://money.cnn.com/2017/01/19/inv...sia/index.html

Russia dumps half of its US Treasury bonds

Published time: 16 Jun, 2018 03:35


Russia has held a major selloff of US Treasury bonds, dumping some $47bn-worth of papers and momentarily dropping six places on a list of major foreign holders of US securities, recently released statistics for April have shown.
In just one month, Russia proceeded to sell $47.4 billion out of the $96.1 billion the country had in US treasury bonds in March. The latest statistics released by the US Treasury Department on Friday showed that, in April, Russia had only $48.7bn in American assets, occupying 22nd place on the list of “major foreign holders of Treasury securities.”

https://www.rt.com/business/429931-r...us-treasuries/

Let's see if anyone can figure out what's going on based on the 2 stories quoted.




Is it a sign of "recession".

Or are we witnessing a side effect of US bonds and currency being replaced as global reserve standards.

[Sanity Check]

This could use more focus.

.

[khicks26]

[Sanity Check]

They've said the US economy was doomed since Trump was elected.

Do they have more evidence for their perspective today than they did 2 years ago? Heh.

[khicks26]

They've said the US economy was doomed since Trump was elected.

Do they have more evidence for their perspective today than they did 2 years ago? Heh.

Bill Black is just telling what the yield curve inversion means for the economy. The trend is a recession.

Partly to do with tariffs & a lack of vision about the future.

You said it could use more focus, this is Trump economy like it or not. Don't Heh me if you don't like the focus.

Also watch the vid before you spew BS.

[Sanity Check]

Bill Black is just telling what the yield curve inversion means for the economy. The trend is a recession.

Partly to do with tariffs & a lack of vision about the future.

Have you ever been involved with bitcoin or crypto?

Do you know what happens in a dump cycle when a selloff occurs?

The bottom line is major holders of US bonds like russia, china and japan dumped US treasuries in record numbers over the past few years. Yield curve inversion is a prime factor of global treasury dumping, wholly unrelated to economic variables or recession.

Bill Black is talking out his ass fooling illiterates into thinking its a valid indicator of global recession. I could say this to his face and he wouldn't say jack shit. Even a fake like him pushing phony narratives knows the truth when they hear it.

[khicks26]

Have you ever been involved with bitcoin or crypto?

Do you know what happens in a dump cycle when a selloff occurs?

The bottom line is major holders of US bonds like russia, china and japan dumped US treasuries in record numbers over the past few years. Yield curve inversion is a prime factor of global treasury dumping, wholly unrelated to economic variables or recession.

Bill Black is talking out his ass fooling illiterates into thinking its a valid indicator of global recession. I could say this to his face and he wouldn't say jack shit. Even a fake like him pushing phony narratives knows the truth when they hear it.

What the Yield Curve Inversion means is the public thinks interest rates are going to decline. Which means deflation, not inflation. Which means were at risk for a recession.

Could this be why China & Russia are selling off US debt? Knowing that debt is going to be worth less that what they lent it at?

Yea why don't you go tell him that you Trump nut bag. Maybe he can pull your head out of your ass. History & the Yield Curve are not on your side you pigheaded asshole.

[khicks26]

.







Let's see if anyone can figure out what's going on based on the 2 stories quoted.




Is it a sign of "recession".

Or are we witnessing a side effect of US bonds and currency being replaced as global reserve standards.

They've said the US economy was doomed since Trump was elected.

Do they have more evidence for their perspective today than they did 2 years ago? Heh.

Have you ever been involved with bitcoin or crypto?

Do you know what happens in a dump cycle when a selloff occurs?

The bottom line is major holders of US bonds like russia, china and japan dumped US treasuries in record numbers over the past few years. Yield curve inversion is a prime factor of global treasury dumping, wholly unrelated to economic variables or recession.

Bill Black is talking out his ass fooling illiterates into thinking its a valid indicator of global recession. I could say this to his face and he wouldn't say jack shit. Even a fake like him pushing phony narratives knows the truth when they hear it.

This is what happens when you look at the world backwards & your head is full of puss.

[khicks26]

[Sanity Check]

What the Yield Curve Inversion means is the public thinks interest rates are going to decline. Which means deflation, not inflation. Which means were at risk for a recession.

Could this be why China & Russia are selling off US debt? Knowing that debt is going to be worth less that what they lent it at?

Yea why don't you go tell him that you Trump nut bag. Maybe he can pull your head out of your ass. History & the Yield Curve are not on your side you pigheaded asshole.

Dumping US holdings has been an ongoing thing since around 2001 when Saddam Hussein announced he was throwing the US dollar overboard on oil sales and the USA decided to make an example out of him by removing him from power. America imposing economic sanctions against russia accelerated Putin moving to dump US treasuries. China and japan moved to mitigate risk in US holdings as the democrat party inflated the deficit past $20 trillion.

As we all know, Obama raised the deficit from $10 trillion to above $20 trillion which increased the risk factor of holding US treasuries. This is primarily what led to countries like japan and china liquidating their US holdings to reduce risk. Said selloff is what killed bond and treasury yields. It means you have an "inverting yield curve" but that's an overly fancy way of labeling it to prevent people from making a connection with the selloff of bonds that is occurring.

None of this reflects economic concerns or hints at recession. Its more a natural symptom of what happens when global reserve currencies like the US dollar or US bonds/treasuries are removed from this privileged status.

Make no mistake. If anyone with half a brain argued will Bill Black on this, Bill Black would be put in his place.

Did I answer all of your questions?

[khicks26]

Dumping US holdings has been an ongoing thing since around 2001 when Saddam Hussein announced he was throwing the US dollar overboard on oil sales and the USA decided to make an example out of him by removing him from power. America imposing economic sanctions against russia accelerated Putin moving to dump US treasuries. China and japan moved to mitigate risk in US holdings as the democrat party inflated the deficit past $20 trillion.

None of this reflects economic concerns or hints at recession.

Make no mistake. If anyone with half a brain argued will Bill Black on this, Bill Black would be put in his place.

Did I answer all of your questions?

What the hell was 2008 & why has only the top 10% recovered from it.

I heard a guy say once that after the crash in 08, Russia went to China & said lets dump the dollar. That could have put the empire out of business. But China wouldn't do it because it still needed the US economy to sell its goods. Well since then China has been moving away for the debt ridded US economy & focusing more on raising the living standards of their own people.

What will happen this time as the yield curve tells us we are headed for a recession? Does China or Russia still need us? They might be a little pissed off about all those sanctions & the US bullying the rest of the world.

But go ahead stupid, blame the left & Dem's for everything. Your dumb ass is fighting a culture war when it should be fighting a class war.

[Sanity Check]

What the hell was 2008 & why has only the top 10% recovered from it.

I heard a guy say once that after the crash in 08, Russia went to China & said lets dump the dollar. That could have put the empire out of business. But China wouldn't do it because it still needed the US economy to sell its goods. Well since then China has been moving away for the debt ridded US economy & focusing more on raising the living standards of their own people.

What will happen this time as the yield curve tells us we are headed for a recession? Does China or Russia still need us? They might be a little pissed off about all those sanctions & the US bullying the rest of the world.

But go ahead stupid, blame the left & Dem's for everything. Your dumb ass is fighting a culture war when it should be fighting a class war.

Around 2008 is when US inflation began to consistently outperform wage growth. Investment bankers gambled with the stability of the US economy playing hot potato with leveraged toxic assets and paid the price.

There's a historical clip of then acting federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke disputing the existence of the housing bubble as early as 2005, even as financial analysts around the world screamed about it.

There's so much bullshit said about russia to fool people into believing in collusion fairytales. I can't wait till those "if you dont use condoms you'll end up with russians in your vagina" hysteria ads start to pop up in my spam email filter. Its only a matter of time.

The main thing experts discuss in regard to recession is "global economic slowdown". As long as global economic numbers remain somewhat stable risk of recession will be staved off.

The media is doing the same stupid thing they did with Mueller. Posting their fake news about a recession then trying to manufacture a case for the fake news they've spammed for the past 2 years. They'll roll out more automated kiosks, hike taxes to kill jobs, give healthcare to illegal immigrants and do everything in their power to trigger a recession, then blame Trump for it.

It could be too little too late. If they can't control brexit in their own backyards then they've truly lost control over circumstances and wouldn't it be interesting to know if there is a plan b in the works.

Lecturing me on class warfare? lol The guy who said for years white privilege, cultural appropriation, emphasis on race were weak attempts to divert legit issues relating to class warfare into ones of racial warfare. To fool people into blaming racism for low wages, high taxes and decreasing standards of living...

[guitarjosh]

It's a partial inversion due to the belief that the Fed will cut rates, so investors are trying to lock in higher rates by buying up bonds. Higher bond prices will lower yields, pushing longer dated yields under shorter dated yields.

In the past, yields have inverted due to the Fed hiking. The 30 year yield isn't inverted with anything, and this would be the first time we've had a recession without the 30 year inverting with anything since its inception.

[khicks26]

Around 2008 is when US inflation began to consistently outperform wage growth. Investment bankers gambled with the stability of the US economy playing hot potato with leveraged toxic assets and paid the price.

There's a historical clip of then acting federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke disputing the existence of the housing bubble as early as 2005, even as financial analysts around the world screamed about it.

There's so much bullshit said about russia to fool people into believing in collusion fairytales. I can't wait till those "if you dont use condoms you'll end up with russians in your vagina" hysteria ads start to pop up in my spam email filter. Its only a matter of time.

The main thing experts discuss in regard to recession is "global economic slowdown". As long as global economic numbers remain somewhat stable risk of recession will be staved off.

The media is doing the same stupid thing they did with Mueller. Posting their fake news about a recession then trying to manufacture a case for the fake news they've spammed for the past 2 years. They'll roll out more automated kiosks, hike taxes to kill jobs, give healthcare to illegal immigrants and do everything in their power to trigger a recession, then blame Trump for it.

It could be too little too late. If they can't control brexit in their own backyards then they've truly lost control over circumstances and wouldn't it be interesting to know if there is a plan b in the works.

Lecturing me on class warfare? lol The guy who said for years white privilege, cultural appropriation, emphasis on race were weak attempts to divert legit issues relating to class warfare into ones of racial warfare. To fool people into blaming racism for low wages, high taxes and decreasing standards of living...

For you thinking your the smartest guy in the room. This is pretty piss poor.

[HockeyRocks]

Like so many other Right Wing Whackos here on SBR, this thread proves once again that Sanity Check needs just that......

[khicks26]

It's a partial inversion due to the belief that the Fed will cut rates, so investors are trying to lock in higher rates by buying up bonds. Higher bond prices will lower yields, pushing longer dated yields under shorter dated yields.

In the past, yields have inverted due to the Fed hiking. The 30 year yield isn't inverted with anything, and this would be the first time we've had a recession without the 30 year inverting with anything since its inception.

Has it not been a sign of a recession is coming in the past?

[chico2663]

it is what i stated overa year ago when he started this tariff shit with china. They are making the dollar weaker. China doesn't give a shit about losing money. ergo they supplement their companies to flood a foreign market with products. idiots like roy told me i was full of shit. When you have a guy that could care less about if his people starve. (jinping.putin or jung-on) They hold an advantage of a free will nation.

[guitarjosh]

Has it not been a sign of a recession is coming in the past?

Yes, but it doesn't tell you how long until the recession hits. The yield curve inverted in 1965 and we didn't have a recession until 1969. It inverted in 1995 but a recession didn't begin until 2001. Like I said, you probably won't see a recession until the 30 year yield inverts with the T-Bills.

[khicks26]

Yes, but it doesn't tell you how long until the recession hits. The yield curve inverted in 1965 and we didn't have a recession until 1969. It inverted in 1995 but a recession didn't begin until 2001. Like I said, you probably won't see a recession until the 30 year yield inverts with the T-Bills.

Thanks, Money Man.

[Sanity Check]

It's a partial inversion due to the belief that the Fed will cut rates, so investors are trying to lock in higher rates by buying up bonds. Higher bond prices will lower yields, pushing longer dated yields under shorter dated yields.

In the past, yields have inverted due to the Fed hiking. The 30 year yield isn't inverted with anything, and this would be the first time we've had a recession without the 30 year inverting with anything since its inception.

The question is whether demand plays a significant role in bond yields and value.

With three of the biggest holders of US bonds/treasuries in japan, china and russia selling off their holdings, does this perceived decline in demand dictate both reduced yield and value for US bond and treasury markets.

Could this be compared to conditions under standard market mechanics when a stock like tesla motors experiences a sell off and significantly declines in value, as we've witnessed recently.

The federal reserve claims they can implement widespread and comprehensive economic policy via simply raising or lowering rates. There are other aspects to market mechanics that may be neglected in conventional analytical frameworks presented to the public, to prevent them from understanding what really causes things to happen.

[khicks26]

Yes, but it doesn't tell you how long until the recession hits. The yield curve inverted in 1965 and we didn't have a recession until 1969. It inverted in 1995 but a recession didn't begin until 2001. Like I said, you probably won't see a recession until the 30 year yield inverts with the T-Bills.

[astrobloke]

best place to be in cryptos and gold soon, as hedge against recession and flight to safety.

Time stamp this.

[RoyBacon]

it is what i stated overa year ago when he started this tariff shit with china. They are making the dollar weaker. China doesn't give a shit about losing money. ergo they supplement their companies to flood a foreign market with products. idiots like roy told me i was full of shit. When you have a guy that could care less about if his people starve. (jinping.putin or jung-on) They hold an advantage of a free will nation.

I kind of gave up on stupid.

My advice would be get your knowledge from smart, main stream outlets. You are just parroting the ignorance of the far left.

US 3-MO	2.192		-0.006	0%
US 2-YR	1.808		-0.022	0%
US 5-YR	1.806		-0.022	0%
US 10-YR	2.068		-0.023	0%
US 30-YR	2.582		-0.02	0%

We don't want a strong dollar. The dollar is strong because you can get 2.2% risk free in the US and 0% in Japan.

[Sanity Check]

it is what i stated overa year ago when he started this tariff shit with china. They are making the dollar weaker. China doesn't give a shit about losing money. ergo they supplement their companies to flood a foreign market with products. idiots like roy told me i was full of shit. When you have a guy that could care less about if his people starve. (jinping.putin or jung-on) They hold an advantage of a free will nation.

The deficit is making both the dollar and US treasuries/bonds weaker. The greater the deficit the more likely the state will default and try to print their way out of debt, which will in turn hyperinflate the dollar. Its one of the reasons crypto currencies like bitcoin were able to gain traction with their built in deflationary protections.

The new age idea people have where they idolize weaker currency as the best monetary policy is a sham. Weak currency is only good for exports and boosting the profits of corporations that export products overseas. Weak currency is bad for consumers and for the average person as it dilutes their purchasing power.

[RoyBacon]

Both Japan and Germany have a negative interest rate.

So where would you put your money?
USA 2.1%
Germany -.7%
Japan -.1%

The above is the reason the dollar is strong. There is massive interest for US debt. The stronger dollar makes US made goods more expensive in foreign markets. And makes Japanese and German products less expensive here.

We are getting played as usual.