Alabama -40 and O54

Sam Odom · 09-06-12, 12:24 PM

Bama ML =

mynameismud · 09-06-12, 12:27 PM

hilltoppers lose by a least 55.

cant call it · 09-06-12, 12:28 PM

they cover up to 45 brother
stay away from the total IMO

Sam Odom · 09-06-12, 12:33 PM

If ANYWAY possible Saban/Bama will not run-up the score , beware

nvrlose37 · 09-06-12, 12:34 PM

WKU is used to these games and will keep it close early. When Bama starts to pull away it'll be too late, under and WKU +40 here.

nyyanks773 · 09-06-12, 12:36 PM

Yea, I think Bama scores around 45 here, they tend to not run up the score too bad, depends if W. Kentucky scores, they could on a fluke, could be 45-7 I would guess

DudleyDawson · 09-06-12, 12:37 PM

screams of a bama 47-0 win

Smoke · 09-06-12, 12:43 PM

Dudley you mad bro?

Don't have more points loans to stiff?

Run along now little boy

DudleyDawson · 09-06-12, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by Smoke

Dudley you mad bro?

Don't have more points loans to stiff?

Run along now little boy

I've made more today than your broke ass does in a month...keep up the marathon posting Lil' Smokey...maybe go finish High School and score yourself a job

balls2wall · 09-06-12, 03:07 PM

bama has arky on deck

I'm leaning WKU +40 or whatever it moves up to

HoulihansTX · 09-06-12, 03:36 PM

under EZ.

Saban will build a big lead, then use the 4th qtr as a special teams practice.

dogman · 09-06-12, 03:37 PM

Play both the fav/over and the dog/under in parlays.

DudleyDawson · 09-06-12, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

under EZ.

Saban will build a big lead, then use the 4th qtr as a special teams practice.

this

HoulihansTX · 09-06-12, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by dogman

Play both the fav/over and the dog/under in parlays.

Who is letting you do this? A local?

milwaukee mike · 09-06-12, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by dogman

Play both the fav/over and the dog/under in parlays.

Only good advice in the thread

If your bookie takes correlated parlays (a lot of locals are dumb) then the first few weeks of college football you should make a killing

LT Profits · 09-06-12, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by ElCapitan

If I found a local that will take this parlay should I unload on it?

Now if you find a SECOND guy (or book) that takes them, you can play both of them.

LT Profits · 09-06-12, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by dogman

Play both the fav/over and the dog/under in parlays.

This is why I said find a second source, he won't last long if he plays both at the same place.

milwaukee mike · 09-06-12, 06:08 PM

Very true lt

I used to pound all dogs/unders that were over 75% of the total with a local and take the fav/over through youwager

I even middled some of them since the local lines were jacked up 99% of the time

ElCapitan · 09-06-12, 08:11 PM

Thanks for the advice all. And yes, LT, it is a local. I'm getting an account setup tomorrow.

Azshadios · 09-07-12, 02:22 AM

Originally posted by dogman

Play both the fav/over and the dog/under in parlays.

yeh but if fav cover but under then ur screw big time

ChalkyDog · 09-07-12, 02:58 AM

Originally posted by Azshadios

yeh but if fav cover but under then ur screw big time

Is this correct?

LT Profits · 09-07-12, 07:01 AM

Originally posted by Azshadios

yeh but if fav cover but under then ur screw big time

That's not the point. Of course you can lose any one game, but long term the strategy is a gold mine with this kind of correlation between spread and total

thetrinity · 09-07-12, 07:45 AM

id go dog/under here if u are going parlay. bama has ark up next week coming off michigan

milwaukee mike · 09-07-12, 09:36 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

That's not the point. Of course you can lose any one game, but long term the strategy is a gold mine with this kind of correlation between spread and total

you're essentially laying -125 to cover the 2 parlays that combined have about a 80% chance of hitting in many instances

ElCapitan · 09-07-12, 10:15 AM

LT (or anyone) - what degree of correlation do you consider significant enough to make these viable? I saw mike throw out 75% but those are extremely rare. Even this ALA/WKU game is only 74%.

BamaCBass · 09-07-12, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

That's not the point. Of course you can lose any one game, but long term the strategy is a gold mine with this kind of correlation between spread and total

What sort of guidelines might one use? In which instances is there a greater correlation? Thanks in advance.

Edit: reread the above posts.

LT Profits · 09-07-12, 10:56 AM

Less than 3/1

ElCapitan · 09-07-12, 11:14 AM

Thanks LT. I see several options this weekend then.

ElCapitan · 09-08-12, 01:42 PM

Well got all set up and he took these bets. here's what I took today:

Tulane +24 & U58 - not looking so good
Clemson -28 & O67 - looking pretty good

When he opens back up for the evening games I will probably be taking:

Washington +24 & U52'
Arkansas -30 & O61
Texas -39 % O54 (I love this one. Texas may score 54 alone.)

He did not have the Alabama game on the board so I wasn't able to get on it.

ElCapitan · 09-08-12, 02:02 PM

Forgot to list this one. I also have:

Oregon -34 & O78

Sam Odom · 09-08-12, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

If ANYWAY possible Saban/Bama will not run-up the score ,

beware

ElCapitan · 09-08-12, 05:03 PM

Clemson parlay got trashed on a late 4q TD by ball st. Ugh.

milwaukee mike · 09-08-12, 07:15 PM

both sides of this alabama correlated parlay turned into a -125 winner

i wouldn't agree with the less than 3/1, i would really try to look for stuff like this over 70%

better to bet big on the 5-10 REALLY correlated ones each year than bet small on the 50+ you will find less than 3/1 (my numbers on how many you would find might be way off but you get my point)