Biggest NFL upset week 1

[frogsrangers]

I have them +342 ML as well

You're an idiot, so basically you are taking a team with a rookie QB that has looked like horse's shit all preseason long, with not a lot of talent around him, on the road, against one of the league's best defenses and the top team in that division?



I got on Dolphins -9 and am staying there considering its probably only going to get worse. If you like that play so much why not wait until kickoff when the line will be at least +10?

[chopperocker]

I have the Texans in a 2 team 6 point teaser.

Every game I see in Week 1. The Dolphin are the worst dogs to win and yet some gamblers are on the Dolphins, which is crazy. Let's see if my gambling analysis is correct.

Miami is 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS as a week 1 Dog since '04.

[Ratzz]

straight up... not ATS.
*I'm picking Tennessee over New England.

excellent pick.

100% agree. They are not same team... they will not do well, this year marks first year of serious decline. (imo)

[travismcilrath]

I agree preseason means nothing

[travismcilrath]

titans are not that great

[travismcilrath]

brady will kick it into gear

[travismcilrath]

and if he doesnt his TE's will

[travismcilrath]

if anything take points

[greenhippo]

Texans/Bears/Lions/Pats ML, could someone tell me what they would get you right now?

[Unrivaled]

Wait, why are people saying the dolphins ML? Am I missing something because they are not a good team?

[chopperocker]

Wait, why are people saying the dolphins ML? Am I missing something because they are not a good team?

Miami is not the week 1 play. not against Houston whos projected to go 10-6 and win the AFC South(-650). in a small sample rookie QB's went 1-1 SU/ATS and 1st year HC's went 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS last season.

[MoneyLineDawg]

At Everyone trying to be sharp picking Bills over Jets.....Jets under Rex Ryan are 5-1 vs The Bills and most of the games haven't even been close

I trust Jets D way more than any other unit on the field (Jets O, Bills O, Bills D)

In 2010 Jets won 38-14, 38-7
Last year, Jets won 27-11, 28-24



Jets win 24-13

[GunShard]

Miami is 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS as a week 1 Dog since '04.

I have Houston in a 6 point teaser. I never said I took the -9, it's reduced to -3.

You should be aware that trends and system can fail. Don't blindly follow terrible ATS trends.

[GunShard]

You're an idiot, so basically you are taking a team with a rookie QB that has looked like horse's shit all preseason long, with not a lot of talent around him, on the road, against one of the league's best defenses and the top team in that division?



I got on Dolphins -9 and am staying there considering its probably only going to get worse. If you like that play so much why not wait until kickoff when the line will be at least +10?

Out of the 3 rookie QBs on the road. The Colts and Redskins has a better chance to cover the spread than the Dolphins. It seems like he picked the wrong spread.

[pulledclear]

Do not be confused by pre season. Lets get a grip.

[LT Profits]

At Everyone trying to be sharp picking Bills over Jets.....Jets under Rex Ryan are 5-1 vs The Bills and most of the games haven't even been close

I trust Jets D way more than any other unit on the field (Jets O, Bills O, Bills D)

In 2010 Jets won 38-14, 38-7
Last year, Jets won 27-11, 28-24



Jets win 24-13

You are overlooking the fact that this will be Rex's worst team with Jets. I like Bills a LOT in Week 1.

[Easy-Rider 66]

You are overlooking the fact that this will be Rex's worst team with Jets. I like Bills a LOT in Week 1.

Like the BIlls week 1 as well. However, getting destroyed by Pitt yesterday concerns me somewhat. I know it's only preseason, but that was a beat down.

[LT Profits]

Like the BIlls week 1 as well. However, getting destroyed by Pitt yesterday concerns me somewhat. I know it's only preseason, but that was a beat down.

That doesn't bother me. Tomlin plays to win in preseason and he wasn't happy with Pitt's first two games. Back to Week 1, Bills DL could potentially dominate Jets OL, and I DO trust Bills offense now that they are healthy. They were averaging over 30 points past year before all the injuries hit.

[GunShard]

Can't tell if the Bills is a good bet or trap bet. I'm avoiding that game.

[broadway6]

How about cleveland at home vs eagles?

[MoneyLineDawg]

You are overlooking the fact that this will be Rex's worst team with Jets. I like Bills a LOT in Week 1.

Based off of what? If its chemistry reasons that's just speculation......In week 1 they will be fired up

The defense looks to be much better, talent wise (Add LaRon Landry, Yeramiah Bell.....Their first round pick Coples looks awesome, and they didn't lose anyone worth a shit)

Offensively, they don't lose anything either......Plaxico Burress is replaced by rookie freak Stephen Hill, Plaxico doesn't even have a team right now so what does that tell you?

Tebow will actually help the offense as a playmaker......he looks shitty right now as a regular QB, but they have some crazy plans for him in the regular season. He won't even be a "qb", Atleast to start

[chopperocker]

I have Houston in a 6 point teaser. I never said I took the -9, it's reduced to -3.

You should be aware that trends and system can fail. Don't blindly follow terrible ATS trends.

the trend is true, but i posted it as an attempt to generate laughter. trends are a good indicator of when teams can be over/under valued based on a particular situation and or number. i dont think anyone follows trends blindly. however, some can be quite interesting.

example: Atlanta Falcons are 17-4 ATS when off a SU Loss since '08

week 1 Titans ML

[LT Profits]

Based off of what? If its chemistry reasons that's just speculation......In week 1 they will be fired up

The defense looks to be much better, talent wise (Add LaRon Landry, Yeramiah Bell.....Their first round pick Coples looks awesome, and they didn't lose anyone worth a shit)

Offensively, they don't lose anything either......Plaxico Burress is replaced by rookie freak Stephen Hill, Plaxico doesn't even have a team right now so what does that tell you?

Tebow will actually help the offense as a playmaker......he looks shitty right now as a regular QB, but they have some crazy plans for him in the regular season. He won't even be a "qb", Atleast to start

No offensive line and weak receiving corps to name two. Tebow being a waste is another. And yes, clubhouse turmoil plays into it as long as one of the major causes of that turmoil is still the number one receiver.

[lakerboy]

Bills + points seems good to me. That ml has dropped a chunk as well.

[MoneyLineDawg]

No offensive line and weak receiving corps to name two. Tebow being a waste is another. And yes, clubhouse turmoil plays into it as long as one of the major causes of that turmoil is still the number one receiver.

Same Offensive Line (Possibly better now that Hunter is out) and Same or better WR corps as last year......With a better defense, and add Tebow (Who will either do a few good things or just ride the bench)

So again, how are they worse than last year, which was a disaster in the locker room?

Makes no sense

[NardVa]

I like the Browns over the Eagles. The Browns will be familiar with the Eagles after getting a glimpse of them in week 3 preseason. I also like the Jaguars on the road over the Vikings. I figure it will be a low scoring game with the Jags doing just enough on offense.

[oldschool02]

jaxx ml @ vikings.

[LT Profits]

Same Offensive Line (Possibly better now that Hunter is out) and Same or better WR corps as last year......With a better defense, and add Tebow (Who will either do a few good things or just ride the bench)

So again, how are they worse than last year, which was a disaster in the locker room?

Makes no sense

The offense wasn't good last year, one reason they brought in Tebow was because Sanchez regressed so bad. Persoally I think they both suck so it doesn't matter who the QB is. It was the defense that carried the Jets to two AFC Championship Games, not Sanchez. The receivers are younger, but that doesn't make them better. Who is the second option after Holmes right now? Probably the tight end Keller. And yes I should have singled out right tackle, which is significant in Week 1. Bills have an improved pass rush with Mario Williams and Mark Anderson.

[dlunc3]

I like the Browns over the Eagles. The Browns will be familiar with the Eagles after getting a glimpse of them in week 3 preseason. I also like the Jaguars on the road over the Vikings. I figure it will be a low scoring game with the Jags doing just enough on offense.

you mean after having their first team get man handled by the eagles 1st and 2nd teams? getting a glimpse of a team playing without their starting qb? -9 is a gift in that game, thinking they might win outright is just outrageous. Rookie qb against this eagles defensive line? good luck... this game has blowout all over it

you will see me bet against my team plenty this season. Week one vs clev. is definitely not one of them. Eagles -9 may be the largest week 1 bet ive ever made

[broadway6]

you mean after having their first team get man handled by the eagles 1st and 2nd teams? getting a glimpse of a team playing without their starting qb? -9 is a gift in that game, thinking they might win outright is just outrageous. Rookie qb against this eagles defensive line? good luck... this game has blowout all over it

you will see me bet against my team plenty this season. Week one vs clev. is definitely not one of them. Eagles -9 may be the largest week 1 bet ive ever made

i think PHI wins, but not sure about the largest wager ever. Vick seems to be getting hurt every time he steps on the field. I'm a huge Vick fan (VT boy), but he can't stay healthy.

[dlunc3]

i think PHI wins, but not sure about the largest wager ever. Vick seems to be getting hurt every time he steps on the field. I'm a huge Vick fan (VT boy), but he can't stay healthy.

Yea i def agree with what you are saying.. but it really makes no difference in my mind how Vick plays in this game.. The lack of offensive line and lack of wide receivers paired with a beat up rookie running back and most importantly--- a rookie qb going against arguably the deepest and fastest d-line in football should be a recipe for trouble for cleveland. I dont see how Weeden doesnt give philly a free 14 points minimum himself in this game..

Obviously maybe im just a homer... but you will also see me betting against them when the right time comes later this year.

Matchups just dont line up great for cleveland in this game, and im hopefully taking advantage of it..

bol this year

[MoneyLineDawg]

The offense wasn't good last year, one reason they brought in Tebow was because Sanchez regressed so bad. Persoally I think they both suck so it doesn't matter who the QB is. It was the defense that carried the Jets to two AFC Championship Games, not Sanchez. The receivers are younger, but that doesn't make them better. Who is the second option after Holmes right now? Probably the tight end Keller. And yes I should have singled out right tackle, which is significant in Week 1. Bills have an improved pass rush with Mario Williams and Mark Anderson.

All I'm saying is that you said the Jets will be the worst yet under Rex Ryan, and I'm asking how are they worse than last year??? You still haven't answered it

Their defense is easily ready to be better, and their offense won't be worse (They didn't lose anyone)

[LT Profits]

All I'm saying is that you said the Jets will be the worst yet under Rex Ryan, and I'm asking how are they worse than last year??? You still haven't answered it

Their defense is easily ready to be better, and their offense won't be worse (They didn't lose anyone)

Sanchez got worse as the season went on last year and bringing in Tebow could shatter his confidence completely. And if Tebow ultimately becomes the starter, it would not be an upgrade. The Jets now have no depth at running back behind Greene, who still hasn't proven he could be an every-down back. Even an aging LT was better than the back-up RBs they have now. And as mentioned, they don't have a bona fide WR2. Burress may not have been much but he had almost as many catches and yards as Homes. Now defenses can smother Santonio. I think the offense is decidedly worse this year, and the defense MIGHT be just a hair better, but relying on rookies is never a sure thing. and Coples was NOT that good last year at UNC.

[MoneyLineDawg]

Sanchez got worse as the season went on last year and bringing in Tebow could shatter his confidence completely. And if Tebow ultimately becomes the starter, it would not be an upgrade. The Jets now have no depth at running back behind Greene, who still hasn't proven he could be an every-down back. Even an aging LT was better than the back-up RBs they have now. And as mentioned, they don't have a bona fide WR2. Burress may not have been much but he had almost as many catches and yards as Homes. Now defenses can smother Santonio. I think the offense is decidedly worse this year, and the defense MIGHT be just a hair better, but relying on rookies is never a sure thing. and Coples was NOT that good last year at UNC.

I have no idea how the offense is worse still after this post......Stephen Hill as a rookie will 100% be better than Plaxico Burress who couldn't even move. He hasn't even had a tryout with a team, which is all you need to know. They did not have a bonafide WR2 last year either, period.

You have no idea if the RB's are better or not.....They haven't had the chance to prove themselves. I love LT but he was on his last legs, come on now....It won't be hard to have someone step up and atleast duplicate LT from last season by default.

The Sanchez/Tebow talk is all speculation....Sanchez put up his best stats last season of his career with the worst team around him

LaRon Landy and Yeramiah Bell are a huge step above their 2 safeties from last season.....And Coples has been lighting up the preseason, watch him tonight. He's not even expected to be a difference maker, Jets have tons of d-line depth but he could spark on 3rd downs.

I still have no idea how their offense an be decidedly WORSE than last season's trainwreck of an offense ......They'll have production by default from LT and Plax gone.... . They were below average players last season who aren't even in the league a year later

[JasonBecker]

Dolphins +9 is a no brainer

Huh? Dolphins look like one of the worst teams in the league and Texans are very strong at every position. People forget that Houston could have challenged for a Superbowl last year if Schaub was healthy. I actually think Houston has the 2nd best record in AFC next year after the Patriots and should beat Miami by 14-17 points