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Pre-season NFL teasers
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Football - Detroit Lions/Baltimore Ravens U 49½ -110 for Game
Football - Jacksonville Jaguars +16½ -110 for Game
Football - Jacksonville Jaguars/New Orleans Saints U 49½ -110 for GameComment -
Lions +8.5 / Bills +8.5Comment -
Lions/Ravens OVER 34.5
Jaguars +12.5
(Saints -6.5 is a complete joke)Comment -
best teaser tonight is we are sitting at home while the rest of the gang is in Vegas eating surf and turf and rolling dice
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I'm focused on Week 1.
Overs could be better than Unders in preseason.Comment -
when you start betting pre season NFL teasers its time to get help.Comment -
LOL at the guys who make a living betting pre season NFL kudos guys youre awesome.
As far as 'totals being so low' I can look at pre season and teasers back to 1998 and trust me there is no secret to them, nor is there anything about them that is appealing. But if you guys have some magic formula share it with JJ he seems to be looking for advice.Comment -
NFL is for suckers. I didnt bet more than 50 games when I was making all my money gambling. Much easier to cherry pick MLB lines once all the suckers stop throwing dead money into that pool. Not to mention books loosen up their positions sooner when the NFL starts making exposing them much easier.Comment -
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any horse bets tonite
ps;attn richkaasComment -
Wanty sometimes I think your a square
I am setting you up here and your falling for itComment -
No here is a clue for you frigging idiots. Only ONE game out of six had a teaser that MATTERED. Sure the underdogs covered the teaser but they covered the spread as well.
If Dogs go 4-2 ATS then theyre obviously going to go 4-2 on a teaser, so where is the 'value' in that? The only game teasing helped was Miami/Carolina.
To put it in perspective pre season home under dogs since 2003 are (not including this year) 55-31 ATS (64%) you already have a built in edge in that straight wager, so obviously setting up a subset of pre season dogs with teasers is going to look 'impressive'. But so would parlaying them or just betting them straight up versus the line.
If you eliminate the weeks where teams 'try' that actually improves home dogs records to 36-16 ATS (69%).
So if you have a subset that can be identified on its own as a 64 or 69% result why would you bother teasing? The irony is that teasing in the pre season (as I alluded to) is far less meaningful than it is in the regular season.
But like I said everyone wants to be a genius or try and look like one. But there are some numbers for you to check out and see that teasers are a dumb play. If I can hit a SINGLE game for 64 or 69% why would I tease them for (according to you) 74% chance and pay the extra vig when I win?Comment -
Mathy vs Wanty would be a good gambling debate
Wanty always has data to back him upComment -
because I dont talk out my ass like everyone else here. Guys make up numbers or use faulty data or pretend to be sharp at math then they come on an make comments that 'sound' right to other guys who think they know math and then they are annointed 'math' guy. The ONLY guy that posted anything about math and backed it up was Ganch, and even his stuff was faulty. Because it missed a few things that are definitely sports related. So either he left them out on purpose (to fool the fools) or he didnt understand their importance.
But in the end past results dont mean shit, except to debunk guys with generalizations.
You asked for a teaser, I said that was a sign you needed help. Then guys try to make their point, I made mine. End of thread if you ask me.
Now had there been a home dog or two last night I might have said take aflyer on them, but there wasnt so I didnt.
But as a heads up, home dogs in week 3 are not good. So take that for what its worth if youre going to remember the tidbits for that week, because that is the week I mentioned where teams 'try'. But this is what I have n the generic DB for it...
Since 08
Week 3 Favorites: 29-32-3
Week 3 Favorites of 2.5 or less: 8-6
Week 3 Favorites of 3 to 5.5: 20-19-3
Week 3 Favorites of 6 or more: 1-7
Since 04
Week 3 Favorites: 68-70-5
Week 3 Favorites of 2.5 or less: 17-16
Week 3 Favorites of 3 to 5.5: 45-44-5
Week 3 Favorites of 6 or more: 6-10
Results may vary if you can lineshop and get different numbers, these results are just against closers.
EDITTED....Comment -
So what you're saying is the extra 6 points barely matter because they were only relevant in 1/6 games?
Terrible terrible argument
That's like saying you should never bet a dog runline at +1.5 because last night it only would've only mattered once out of 15. Yet we all know how much that extra run and a half is worse.
Basically everything you said in your above post is wrong, both your facts and your analysis.Comment -
Classic!! Guys can we get a square icon next to this guy's posts please?
Wait wanty... what about week 3 favorites played in states that have more than 6 letters in their name? Does that give you an even bigger edge? And what if the QB is married or not?
This is square central
I defer to LT's last postComment -
thats right I have said for years the +1.5 RL is the worst bet you can make in sports. Only time you consider it is when you see an obvious and real time scalp or have the opportunity to utilize it in some way. But as a stand alone bet it is the worst. Even now that steroids are not part of the game and scores are lower and pitchers are dominating 1 run games are actually on the decline which makes it even less relevant.
But I am sure you will have some sort of 'proof' that that isnt true either.
Look kids I made more money than you will ever think about making betting sports. So you can talk all the shit you want. I have the results.
I am 43 years old and havent worked since.... well pretty much never. Other than when I was lobstering and diving which I stopped doing in 1994.
I made money gambling in the 80s, in the 90s and in the 00s (when it was REALLY easy), I have also done it these past few months after basically taking 3 years completely off. So wile some things may have changed others haven't.
Not to totally derail this thread but that's how it is. But if you think betting a teaser and getting 6 point that dont matter is worth the extra vig then by all means do it. I am sure you will be very successful and will be here 20 years from now bragging about all the money you made doing it.Comment
