[dynamite140]

I seen many games where a team can go on a huge lead in the first quarter or half. For example, the Heat are playing against the Spurs now and the spread is Spurs -2.5 for the game. At the end of the first quarter, Spurs was up 36 to 12 and winning by 24 points.

I checked the ingame wagering at a book and it had the Spurs -15. Is it me or is this pretty much an AUTO bet for the underdog? Yes the spurs are up by 24 points but isn't a live line of spurs -15 way too excessive. I mean, the Heat will eventually make some sort of run and even if they don't the spurs are not going to win by 30+ anyway the majority of the time.

Right now the ingame wagering is Heat +12 after they cut down the lead a bit. But isn't it a great situation where you take a team down by so many points really early in the game and getting much more points later on? So if one took Heat +15 earlier ingame, all they have to do is hope the Heat make a comeback and then suddenly the live line would be much lower. Even if it doesn't isn't it way too hard for the spurs team to cover 15 points?

How often does a team lead by 20+ points by the end of 1st quarter or the half and continue to romp their opponent? Not often right?

I don't know what is a fair in game live line but if Spurs are -15 shouldn't the Heat be an auto bet? Yes Spurs are up by 24 points at the moment and they are 9 points better now but at some point during the game, there is going to be a run by the other team.

Does anyone know what happens more often in these situations when a team gets in a huge lead really early in the game? I would have to assume the team that is down a ton of points would make a run at some point right? Rarely do i see a team get dominated this much. And even if they don't rout the Heat, isn't it just really tough for the Heat and other teams in this situation to NOT cover that in game live line of +15 after the first quarter despite being down 24?

I would think a really good strategy is take the Heat +15 and then as they get closer, you can then take Spurs -6 and then have a huge middle. I'm pretty sure there are many people that do this with in game live wagering right? I feel like taking the team that is down a lot early in the game feels like a bet that shouldn't be allowed b/c i feel like it hits more often right?

[suicidekings]

It doesn't really work out that way as often as you think. If it was as simple as it sounds, live betting would bankrupt the books. Either way you play it, you need to be able to profile the team well enough in advance to have a reasonable grasp of how likely the team you're making the value play on is to come back in the game and cover.

Also, if you're trying to hit a middle, remember that shooting for a middle of X points at -110 odds on both sides will often result in winning one bet and losing the other, for a net loss due to juice. Successful middling often means that you're already on the winning side of a wager, so messing around with it may not be a wise move.

[Nicky Santoro]

you know where i see alot of value. it's when a team is up 79-75 end of 3rd and now the team that is up is -500/+440 on the ML.. how can you not take +440? i see this a lot in live betting.

[betme]

you know where i see alot of value. it's when a team is up 79-75 end of 3rd and now the team that is up is -500/+440 on the ML.. how can you not take +440? i see this a lot in live betting.

i saw this the other day when knicks play the heat.. heat was up like 5 half way 4 quarter.. and knicks end up with a win i think it was like +400 plus knicks ML

[Dharmonize]

Dynamite140, I can only tell you from my own experience that youŽre looking in the right direction. I mean, betting automatically all teams that are losing big in the first q or half is not a goldmine. Far from that. But still, youŽve got a certain point. If you want to make this a strategy or system, you have to watch games and know how teams behave (as some are notorious for blowing huge leads in the second half). More often than not, when I take a losing team + 15 or more points, they cover or I am at least able to hedge during their run. The best thing is to concentrate on certain teams. There are teams repeating the same scheme over and over, game after game. These are the ones to bet on live. While other teams just create an upredictable mess and every single game is different with them. So you better avoid such teams completely. Get to know the mentality of your chosen teams thoroughly (which means following lot of players and going in depth), so that youŽll become able to predict (you can never know for sure) how they behave. This will give you huge edge for live betting. GL!

[Dharmonize]

you know where i see alot of value. it's when a team is up 79-75 end of 3rd and now the team that is up is -500/+440 on the ML.. how can you not take +440? i see this a lot in live betting.

Another interesting point. There is HUGE value for sure

[jjgold]

Live Betting is great but of course you can keep chasing the game and go broke

Lots of nice middles, scalps during a game if you see lead changes

Any blowout can be deadly though

[Dharmonize]

Live Betting is great but of course you can keep chasing the game and go broke

Any blowout can be deadly though

Definitely. Anyone lacking self-discipline should avoid live betting completely.

[milwaukee mike]

i should've quit reading when the first two words were "i seen".
NOTHING is an autobet and live betting is usually a trap with the crack/slot machine-like instant gratification and higher juice.
that said, sometimes there are good hedging or betting opportunities, but for the most part i think you will lose much more than you win over the long run by live betting.

[Mexes]

seriously live betting is the best think you can do i you like to bet on valuable odds...
it's just stupid to bet before a game starts..95%of the time you can get much higher odds in-play.

[FourLengthsClear]

You are going to have to do some donkey work and get hold of, study and run analysis on a lot of statistical data.

How often does a team leading by 4 at the end of the 3rd quarter go on to win a game?
What about a subset if that team was -400 or higher at the start?
etc etc.

Asking random questions on PT will not yield the answers you need. This stuff requires a lot of work.

[swaindexter]

Very interesting concept. GL