Stop crying, start capping (with a lock and a pick)

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 02:02 AM

paying that kind of juice is crazy. Try to find a prop that a lefty will win it. I'd say 80% a lefty wins it.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

paying that kind of juice is crazy. Try to find a prop that a lefty will win it. I'd say 80% a lefty wins it.

IMHO, it's 4 against 3 and you're getting the 4 better power hitters out of the 7. I think the odds are very low.

Beau Knows · 07-09-12, 05:03 AM

I think the A.L has a MUCH better chance at winning this thing. I like the price @ -150 (5 dimes). Im placing 15 units on A.L to win. Props bets will be 1 unit on Cano repeating and 1 unit on Trumbo hitting longest bomb.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

paying that kind of juice is crazy. Try to find a prop that a lefty will win it. I'd say 80% a lefty wins it.

I guess a lot of people are doing it because American league player to win is up to -186 at bookmaker and I think it's gonna keep going up because I'd say it has at least a 75% chance of hitting conservatively.

2daBank · 07-09-12, 09:41 AM

over my vast years of being a serious degenerate i have learned one truth about this thing...it best to just pick a guy make a reasonably small play (whatever that means to you, me maybe a hundo, kerry prob a grand, fukkin baller,lol)...ive tried playingit all individual vs individual, taking several guys i thought had chance ect ect..bottom line it a crap shoot and the odds are normally shit for the amount of luck involved...i rode cano last year with his father pitching, sounded like it would be good, turns out it wasnt, his father pitching again i believe and my guess is they maybe figure it out this time...

so my ASB action is cano to win parlayed with NL ml 100 pays like 1200ish....if it hits awesome if not so be it...honestly ill be thrilled if my guy makes it past 1st round..lol

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

over my vast years of being a serious degenerate i have learned one truth about this thing...it best to just pick a guy make a reasonably small play (whatever that means to you, me maybe a hundo, kerry prob a grand, fukkin baller,lol)...ive tried playingit all individual vs individual, taking several guys i thought had chance ect ect..bottom line it a crap shoot and the odds are normally shit for the amount of luck involved...i rode cano last year with his father pitching, sounded like it would be good, turns out it wasnt, his father pitching again i believe and my guess is they maybe figure it out this time...

so my ASB action is cano to win parlayed with NL ml 100 pays like 1200ish....if it hits awesome if not so be it...honestly ill be thrilled if my guy makes it past 1st round..lol

The AL has had the individual winner five straight times. If it was like you're describing I don't think that would be possible.

Looking at the line-ups here reminds me of when I was in elementary school and somehow one of the teams got the three or four best players and everyone on the other team would complain and say "This isn't fair, that team is stacked" and everyone knew who was gonna win before the game started. I think that's pretty much the case here. I've explained my case above.

Vinnie Paz · 07-09-12, 10:36 AM

Books giving bautista a lot of love, hmm??

2daBank · 07-09-12, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by cleaveland

The AL has had the individual winner five straight times. If it was like you're describing I don't think that would be possible.

Looking at the line-ups here reminds me of when I was in elementary school and somehow one of the teams got the three or four best players and everyone on the other team would complain and say "This isn't fair, that team is stacked" and everyone knew who was gonna win before the game started. I think that's pretty much the case here. I've explained my case above.

i have no doubt Al has evey chance of winning it....but the fact they have won however many years in a row doesnt make it any more/less of a crapshoot imho.. obviously i like cano and then you have trumbo and joey bats on your side as well, thing is it only takes 1 guy form nl swinging a hot bat and -185 is steep..beltran been slumping so he prob break out and win, or kemp hasnt palyed in a month he prob break out and win, it just the way it goes,lol..nothing wrong with what you stating i just dont find it wise to invest much in this thing and the 100 im willing to put up dont pay shit on -185 so ill just pick a guy (cano) and hope he at least sticks around long enough for me to get my monies worth...maybe this thing can be profitable but personally for me it never has, cept one yr think i actually had the winner (of coarse i had 3-4 guys so didnt win much, lol)... im certainly not hating and hope you crush it brother! if al gu wins that means cano odds even better!!! BOL

jlee · 07-09-12, 10:55 AM

bautista is a fastball hitter imo, don't think he has the power to hit offspeed pitches out of the park

I like carlos beltran, gl

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i have no doubt Al has evey chance of winning it....but the fact they have won however many years in a row doesnt make it any more/less of a crapshoot imho.. obviously i like cano and then you have trumbo and joey bats on your side as well, thing is it only takes 1 guy form nl swinging a hot bat and -185 is steep..beltran been slumping so he prob break out and win, or kemp hasnt palyed in a month he prob break out and win, it just the way it goes,lol..nothing wrong with what you stating i just dont find it wise to invest much in this thing and the 100 im willing to put up dont pay shit on -185 so ill just pick a guy (cano) and hope he at least sticks around long enough for me to get my monies worth...maybe this thing can be profitable but personally for me it never has, cept one yr think i actually had the winner (of coarse i had 3-4 guys so didnt win much, lol)... im certainly not hating and hope you crush it brother! if al gu wins that means cano odds even better!!! BOL

I never said anything about betting this big, I agree with you there. I got American league player to win at -155 and I think that's a great price. As it gets closer to -200 it obviously becomes less and less attractive but I still feel like it's a winner. I understand your reasoning, it'll be fun to see what happens.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 05:30 PM

American league player to win at -210 at bookmaker now.

Well, according to some posters I've already won with line movement like that. As I said in the original post, -155 was incredible value. It's nice to be vindicated like this from time to time.

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by cleaveland

American league player to win at -210 at bookmaker now.

Well, according to some posters I've already won with line movement like that. As I said in the original post, -155 was incredible value. It's nice to be vindicated like this from time to time.

Moral victory if AL loses, actual victory if you buy out of it by betting on the NL at + whatever it is.

I won't pretend to know what will happen tonight. Lefties do tend to do better in the home run derby though for obvious reasons.

2daBank · 07-09-12, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

Moral victory if AL loses, actual victory if you buy out of it by betting on the NL at + whatever it is.

I won't pretend to know what will happen tonight. Lefties do tend to do better in the home run derby though for obvious reasons.

Kaufman actually favors righties tho..

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Kaufman actually favors righties tho..

I know very little about Kansas City or Kaufman stadium. Royals could disappear and it wouldn't bother me.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

Moral victory if AL loses, actual victory if you buy out of it by betting on the NL at + whatever it is.

I won't pretend to know what will happen tonight. Lefties do tend to do better in the home run derby though for obvious reasons.

You're saying I should take the guaranteed profit even though I'm convinced I have a winner? I know the conventional wisdom around here says take it but I'm a contrarian. We'll see who's right.

PS, are you saying that if I actually win this bet without hedging then I'll still end up losing?

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by cleaveland

You're saying I should take the guaranteed profit even though I'm convinced I have a winner? I know the conventional wisdom around here says take it but I'm a contrarian. We'll see who's right.

PS, are you saying that if I actually win this bet without hedging then I'll still end up losing?

I'm saying that declaring yourself a winner before your bet wins is wrong. If your bet loses, you lost and I was right that it was wrong to lay juice on it.

I'm not a hedge or scalp bettor anyway, so I'm not telling you to buy out... but just because the line moves in your favor doesn't mean you win.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

I'm saying that declaring yourself a winner before your bet wins is wrong. If your bet loses, you lost and I was right that it was wrong to lay juice on it.

I'm not a hedge or scalp bettor anyway, so I'm not telling you to buy out... but just because the line moves in your favor doesn't mean you win.

I totally agree with you but I was just saying that there are posters around here who would claim victory now with this kind of line movement. Maybe I should have made it clear, I'm not one of them.

So, did you make any bets on the home run derby?

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by cleaveland

I totally agree with you but I was just saying that there are posters around here who would claim victory now with this kind of line movement. Maybe I should have made it clear, I'm not one of them.

So, did you make any bets on the home run derby?

Nah. I usually would if I was on any kind of tilt but I am on a nice little streak so I'm just going to watch it.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 08:25 PM

My lock came through with ease and now 3 out of the final 4 players will be American leaguers. This event is pretty predictable and it's great for betting.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 09:09 PM

One of the easiest -155 winners ever, the AL is destroying this thing. -155 was expensive? It was way too cheap!

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 09:11 PM

Originally posted by cleaveland

One of the easiest -155 winners ever, the AL is destroying this thing. -155 was expensive? It was way too cheap!

Yes... Cano hit 0 HR, the overwhelming favorite to win the whole thing, and you're talking about how easy a win it was...

If Cano, the favorite, can hit zero... do you REALLY think there was any logic or form to this bet or play? Start keeping a spreadsheet bud, I want to see you bury yourself like brahma.

2daBank · 07-09-12, 09:13 PM

kerry, we all know who had the easiest money tonight

worked out nice cano losing to kemp..

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

kerry, we all know who had the easiest money tonight

worked out nice cano losing to kemp..

Yeah, that was a nice find. Guess they wanted to give away free money. I'm happy with the $500 I won tonight. I expected not to gamble at all.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by Beau Knows

I think the A.L has a MUCH better chance at winning this thing. I like the price @ -150 (5 dimes). Im placing 15 units on A.L to win. Props bets will be 1 unit on Cano repeating and 1 unit on Trumbo hitting longest bomb.

Way to go! I'm glad I was able to help someone win big. Most of the board was sleeping on this play. It's like they didn't consider this to be a real sporting event?

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 09:20 PM

PickWinnerAllDay

You're on ignore unless you take my challenge of a decent handicapping one on one competition. You called me a loser but you won't let me defend myself? Unacceptable!

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by cleaveland

PickWinnerAllDay

You're on ignore unless you take my challenge of a decent handicapping one on one competition. You called me a loser but you won't let me defend myself? Unacceptable!

You're a non pro nobody, pal. Didn't even know who you were until today. Don't try to challenge the master. Do you think championship boxers just take challenges from non pro dikk fukk's they've never heard of? Keep a spread sheet and make a couple grand a week for a while and then I"ll let you challenge the master. Otherwise, know your role.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

You're a non pro nobody, pal. Didn't even know who you were until today. Don't try to challenge the master. Do you think championship boxers just take challenges from non pro dikk fukk's they've never heard of? Keep a spread sheet and make a couple grand a week for a while and then I"ll let you challenge the master. Otherwise, know your role.

Here's an example of my handicapping ability:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1546985-teaser-thread.html

If that's not enough for you then I'll find all the plays I've posted, what kind of results do you need?

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by cleaveland

Here's an example of my handicapping ability:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1546985-teaser-thread.html

If that's not enough for you then I'll find all the plays I've posted, what kind of results do you need?

I don't go digging for non pros. Keep a spreadsheet on SBR. I told you exactly what to do and you still ask questions?

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

I don't go digging for non pros. Keep a spreadsheet on SBR. I told you exactly what to do and you still ask questions?

It shouldn't matter because I can give all kind of winning picks I've posted all over the place. What difference does it make? I have to prove myself to be good enough to have a chance to defend myself after you called me a loser? You said I have a 1st grade mentality but that's what you're showing. Give me a chance to defend myself or you're on ignore. This is about the most ridiculous BS I've ever heard.

I have to prove myself to be good enough to compete with you but I have to do it exactly your way? A competition is nothing, we both handicap everyday. Just post some picks for a week and see who wins, it's not a big deal.

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-09-12, 09:43 PM

No one gives a shit if you ignore me kid. Especially not me. Go ahead and do it. You're a loser and that remains regardless of your choice.

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

No one gives a shit if you ignore me kid. Especially not me. Go ahead and do it. You're a loser and that remains regardless of your choice.

You posted, "Didn't even know who you were until today." and you're saying I'm a loser. That's incredible BS.

If you were really confident in yourself and your opinions (including the ones just mentioned) you'd take my challenge.

MatI · 07-09-12, 09:53 PM

cleveland, don't bother. Mikey is #1. Nobody is taking it away from him!

cleaveland · 07-09-12, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by MatI

cleveland, don't bother. Mikey is #1. Nobody is taking it away from him!

Another poster goes on ignore. Anyone really confident in their ability would say, "A handicapping challenge, no problem. Anytime, any place." End of story.

MatI · 07-09-12, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by cleaveland

Another poster goes on ignore. Anyone really confident in their ability would say, "A handicapping challenge, no problem. Anytime, any place." End of story.

cleve, It's called sarcasm!