OKC Line Game 1 -3.5, -4, -4.5, -5, Now... -5.5

[TheMoneyShot]

In most games... this would only indicate heavy money on the favorite. I don't believe this is necessarily the case in this game. I believe it's for the HEAT LOVERS out there... Getting the ML at +200 - +210 at select books. They are hoping that you just wager on the name "HEAT" there's no other explanation to this I believe. You mean to tell me books under analyzed the opening line? Something very wrong with this movement.

Seems like -5.5 is the play. Your thoughts?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i got some -4.5 but all the books have -5 now. only bodog has -5.5. are you saying it's a play if the spread goes to -5.5? i don't understand.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

also the line opened at 4.5 and not at 3.5

[TheMoneyShot]

5 Dimes opened up at -3.5 they had it at -3.5 for 5 minutes. The line quickly moved to -4.

Yes, I'm saying OKC should be the play because the line is way too high. You shouldn't get line movement like this. The public isn't causing this. No way Miami and OKC should ever be 5.5 points between them. Miami +210 is mighty tempting... but no way OKC loses game 1 straight up. There's a lot of people hammering Heat ML right now. It's the only conclusion you can come up with. I just don't get this "severe" movement? There's no way more money is on OKC... the money flow is basically even. Heat is a household name... OKC isn't. OKC -5.5 is kind of ridiculous... but ridiculous lines usually win when wagering in the NBA.

[blackbeSSt]

In most games... this would only indicate heavy money on the favorite. I don't believe this is necessarily the case in this game. I believe it's for the HEAT LOVERS out there... Getting the ML at +200 - +210 at select books. They are hoping that you just wager on the name "HEAT" there's no other explanation to this I believe. You mean to tell me books under analyzed the opening line? Something very wrong with this movement.

Seems like -5.5 is the play. Your thoughts?

5 Dimes opened up at -3.5 they had it at -3.5 for 5 minutes. The line quickly moved to -4.

Yes, I'm saying OKC should be the play because the line is way too high. You shouldn't get line movement like this. The public isn't causing this. No way Miami and OKC should ever be 5.5 points between them. Miami +210 is mighty tempting... but no way OKC loses game 1 straight up. There's a lot of people hammering Heat ML right now. It's the only conclusion you can come up with. I just don't get this "severe" movement? There's no way more money is on OKC... the money flow is basically even. Heat is a household name... OKC isn't. OKC -5.5 is kind of ridiculous... but ridiculous lines usually win when wagering in the NBA.

[TheMoneyShot]

That's what I'm saying blackbe. -5.5 is a strange line... strange lines usually cover during the playoffs.

[steviec27]

Eh? The line is too high and that makes OKC the play....

And your analysis of tonight is im going with OKC since 'strange lines usually hit in the playoffs'
Sharp

[d2bets]

You're exaggerating the movement. Most books, including Pinny, opened at -4.5. If 5Dimes had it -3.5 for 5 minutes I'll take your word, but that wasn't a wide opener. Opener was -4.5. And it's painted 5 just about everywhere now. So in reality we're talking about a half point move from 4.5 to 5. Not all that noteworthy. I like OKC -5 but not because it's a strange line. It's not. OKC is a -170 series favorite. Hoem court is roughly about 4 points either way, so -5 seems perfectly appropriate from the series price, maybe a touch low if anything.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

so basically you are saying the books are begging for heat money correct? if the amount of wager is 50/50 and the line is still going up, you do have a point.

if you just look at the two teams, okc is a much better all around team. vegas already knows that and maybe they are trying to get average joes to put hundred or two on the heat. i see where you are coming from and even before your analysis, i really like okc in this spot. only thing that worries me is turnovers resulting in dunks and easy layups for the heat...

[PaperTrail07]

I agree....I know what your saying...usually line goes down b/c fav is getting bet....in this case we believe it is simply to attract more ML heat bets and heat + points...I agree and say OAK is the proper bet here....

[Big_Slim]

I'm on the Heat tonight @ +6.5 -137...bought 1.5 points....closely monitoring the line...if it changes I'll make another buy up in order to build a position to where I'm comfortable at.

Although I believe there will be a really good line for OKC bakers if you just wait til game time and get it live!

[eXon]

I jumped on OKC -4.5. Pretty confident about that one.

[King Mayan]

I got it at -4....

Good luck homeboys.

[SteelRain]

I took the Heat +5 for half a unit.

[BIGDAY]

Got -4 Thunder rolls.

[Cobra07751]

also the line opened at 4.5 and not at 3.5

Pinny opened @ -3.5 (only book with balls). I watched this open on my Don Best Odds screen live

[TheMoneyShot]

You're exaggerating the movement. Most books, including Pinny, opened at -4.5. If 5Dimes had it -3.5 for 5 minutes I'll take your word, but that wasn't a wide opener. Opener was -4.5. And it's painted 5 just about everywhere now. So in reality we're talking about a half point move from 4.5 to 5. Not all that noteworthy. I like OKC -5 but not because it's a strange line. It's not. OKC is a -170 series favorite. Hoem court is roughly about 4 points either way, so -5 seems perfectly appropriate from the series price, maybe a touch low if anything.

DBets... I'm not exaggerating anything. I'm just going by what books are saying. There's a lesson to be learned in every game and every opening of a series. I'm waiting to find out what this movement meant? I always remember the results of money flow to a side and line movement so it makes me a better gambler. Doesn't matter what my heart feels... it's what your mind is telling you.

[d2bets]

DBets... I'm not exaggerating anything. I'm just going by what books are saying. There's a lesson to be learned in every game and every opening of a series. I'm waiting to find out what this movement meant? I always remember the results of money flow to a side and line movement so it makes me a better gambler. Doesn't matter what my heart feels... it's what your mind is telling you.

My mind tells me there's nothing particularly surprising about the -5 line in light of the series price. Looks pretty standard vanilla to me. I like OKC either way, but I'd like it even more at -3.5.

[PAYTON20]

In most games... this would only indicate heavy money on the favorite. I don't believe this is necessarily the case in this game. I believe it's for the HEAT LOVERS out there... Getting the ML at +200 - +210 at select books. They are hoping that you just wager on the name "HEAT" there's no other explanation to this I believe. You mean to tell me books under analyzed the opening line? Something very wrong with this movement.

Seems like -5.5 is the play. Your thoughts?

Could be the exact opposite bro

Everyone is all over OKC chasing the steam. Everyone on this forum is acting like it's a given that OKC wins game 1

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Could be the exact opposite bro

Everyone is all over OKC chasing the steam. Everyone on this forum is acting like it's a given that OKC wins game 1

it is, just depends by how much...

[The Kraken]

Betting Miami on the road is russian roulette. Miami on the road is a scary team. Miami at home is a really scary team. Men, ML only for me, even if it's heavy chalk.

[Ockert12]

Edit - double post

[Ockert12]

Okc is going to roll tonight. Miami is gonna need at least a few quarters on the same floor as okc to adjust to their overall speed. Okc 1q should be a good bet as well

[LT Profits]

There is nothing unusual here at all, the line is moving with the money.

[a4u2fear]

there is nothing unusual here at all, the line is moving with the money.

yuuuuuuuuuuuuup

[TheMoneyShot]

The estimated line for Game 3 is Miami -3.5 according to 5Dimes... if you factor that in today's spread... that's a 9 point swing. A spread from home to away should only be a 6 point swing. Today's NBA is no different than last years NBA. Proof is in the pudding.

[Inkwell77]

You're exaggerating the movement. Most books, including Pinny, opened at -4.5.

Uh... Unless the Sports Options screen is lying Pinnacle opened the line at OKC -3.5 -109 at 8:07 pm on 6/9. It quickly moved to OKC -4.5 -110 by 8:33 pm.

It is very difficult to go against this type of line movement unless there is late money on Miami here tonight, which I think there will be. Right now OKC is -5 -110. While a 1.5 pt move is not huge it is definitely something.

[manny24]

There is nothing unusual here at all, the line is moving with the money.

lt quick you can get all of your spurs money back right now...thunder to win this series...go go go go go go now do it!!!!!

[mv09]

Gotta Take The Points in Game 1.

Remember, it took 2 games for OKC to get used to and figure out San Antonio. They are playing well, but it may take them a few games to find a way to guard James and Wade. The fact that its in OKC makes me take the points, rather than ML

[LT Profits]

The estimated line for Game 3 is Miami -3.5 according to 5Dimes... if you factor that in today's spread... that's a 9 point swing. A spread from home to away should only be a 6 point swing. Today's NBA is no different than last years NBA. Proof is in the pudding.

More here because OKC home court is worth about 4.5 points, most in the NBA. If you give Miami 3.5, that is 8 point swing.

[LT Profits]

Gotta Take The Points in Game 1.

Remember, it took 2 games for OKC to get used to and figure out San Antonio. They are playing well, but it may take them a few games to find a way to guard James and Wade. The fact that its in OKC makes me take the points, rather than ML

First two games vs. Spurs were on road, OKC should be fine tonight. Miami will be the team trying to find a way to slow down Thunder.

[matt1216]

First two games vs. Spurs were on road, OKC should be fine tonight. Miami will be the team trying to find a way to slow down Thunder.

this game is vary obvious to me. Heat r tired from 7 game series against boston. Lebron playin heavy mins last few games. Every team that has gone to a game 7 and won has gone on to lose the first game of the next series (0-4) . for the exception of philly vs celtics game 1 each team has gone on to lose by more than 10 points and trust me it was due to a sluggish 3rd qtr and start to the game.

OKC to win by 14-20 pts tonight . mia will show up game 2

[Ghenghis Kahn]

okc was pretty clutch in the second half.

[matt1216]

well i wasnt far off teams after game 7s are now 0-5 1-4 ATS......

[jjgold]

Heat did show up and could not win

They placed a decent game